The top Ace pitchers have certainly shined that last couple of days with Max Scherzer putting up 20 strikeouts (93 FD/59.15 DK) and Clayton Kershaw with a 13 strikeout shutout (78 FD/52.85 DK). Tonight there is only one true Ace on the hill in Chris Sale, so with the recent success of Ace pitchers and the fact that he stands as the lone ace tonight it just feels like the perfect time to fade him, especially in GPPs. It is a risky move but with games in Colorado, Texas and Arizona paying up for some prime bats might be a better way to go. So tonight I am not going to recommend an “ace” but will instead give two Value plays and two Darkhorse plays.
Value
Rich Hill (FD-$8,700 / DK-$9,700)
Part of the reason I am fading Sale tonight is because I have Hill rated as a solid #2 option at over $2,500 savings on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Hill has pitched great for the Athletics with a 2.39 ERA and 11.0 K/9. The only issue Hill has had this year is walks but the Rays have the 4th lowest walk rate (5.9%) against lefties this season to go along with a 24% K-rate (9th worst). The Rays do make hard contact against lefties so Hill could give up a few extra base hits but his strikeout upside should limit the damage. Hill is an excellent GPP option and potential Cash game option.
Gio Gonzalez (FD-$8,900 / DK-$8,100)
Gonzalez is one of the biggest favorites on the board tonight pitching at home against the Marlins and Tom Koehler. Gonzalez’s strikeout rate is down so far this season but he faces a Marlins team that has struck out 24.6% of the time (6th worst) against lefties this season. Gonzalez is a great Cash game option on FanDuel due to his high win potential and solid strikeout ability.
Darkhorse
Justin Verlander (FD-$7,800 / DK-$7,100)
Verlander seems to have found his strikeout ability again so far this season with a 9.1 K/9 rate. He should be able to put his strikeout ability to good use tonight against an Orioles team that has struck out 21.3% of the time against righties this season. Due to the blowup potential against a powerful Orioles lineup Verlander should be limited to only GPP lineups tonight.
Brandon Finnegan (FD-$6,000 / DK-$6,200)
Finnegan has been a Darkhorse favorite of mine this season and makes his third appearance of the season. His initial appearance came in his first start of the season against the same Phillies team that he faces tonight where he went six innings with nine strikeouts allowing just four baserunners and two runs. The Phillies haven’t improved much against lefties since then as they strikeout 24.1% (8th worst) against lefties with a .125 ISO (6th worst) and .265 wOBA (2nd worst) on the season. Finnegan is a good GPP option and I wouldn’t mind using him as a #2 starter on two-pitcher sites.
On the Hill – Results
Wednesday
| Date | Type | Pitcher | DK $ | DK Pts | Grade |
| 11-May | Ace | Max Scherzer | 11300 | 59.15 | A+ |
| 11-May | Value | Jaime Garcia | 8900 | 32.75 | A |
| 11-May | Value | Jerad Eickhoff | 8000 | 2.95 | F |
| 11-May | Dark | Juan Nicasio | 6000 | 12.50 | D |
Season
| Type | A+ | A | B | C | D | F | Tot | DK Cost | DK Pts | DO Score |
| Ace | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 23 | $11,365 | 22.47 | 4.57 |
| Value | 9 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 0 | 14 | 47 | $8,321 | 15.79 | 3.34 |
| Dark | 7 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 23 | $6,648 | 16.03 | 4.17 |
- DK Cost is the average DraftKings cost per pitcher selected
- DK Pts is the average DraftKings points scored per pitcher selected
- DO Score is the Daily Overlay score for each type
Come back to DailyOverlay later today for the MLB Consensus list and some sample MLB lineups.
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