It is a shame when the best two pitchers on the Monday night slate, aren’t actually on the Monday night slate. What do I mean? The Indians insist on starting their games an hour earlier than the rest of the world so the matchup between Chris Archer and Carlos Carrasco is only on the “full day” slate instead of the “main” slate starting at 7 pm EST. So we are left with a bunch of scrapes on the hill tonight including two pitchers making their first start off the DL (Brandon McCarthy and Sean Manaea). I do not like to use pitchers in their first game of the DL due to concerns of pitch count limitations. So while I will list an “ace” option tonight, he is far from a real ace but is just the pitcher I trust the most for Cash games on a very weak slate for pitchers.
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Jesse Chavez (FD-$7,200 / DK-$7,800)
Chavez is my “ace” tonight, sigh. He has been solid in the Angels rotation this season with a 4.29 ERA and 20.1% strikeout rate. He will pitch at home on Monday as a decent sized favorite (-165) against the White Sox who have been bad against right-handed pitchers this season with a 23.3% strikeout rate, the second-worst wOBA (.277) and third lowest wRC+ (74) in the league. He is a solid Cash game option on all sites and could be used in a GPP lineup without any pitching options available with big upside.
Value
Chase Anderson (FD-$8,500 / DK-$6,800)
Anderson has continued his solid pitching this season (2.97 ERA) following up on a strong second half in 2016 (3.02 ERA). He won’t strikeout a lot of batters but could see an increase on Monday against a Padres’ team that has the second highest strikeout rate (25.4%) this season versus right-handers. The game will also be played in San Diego which is a positive park adjustment compared to Milwaukee for pitchers. The Brewers are hot right now winning six of their last seven games and Anderson could benefit from some run support to pick up a win.
Darkhorse
Zack Wheeler (FD-$8,300 / DK-$7,200)
Wheeler may have the highest upside on the slate so he is worth a flier in GPP lineups even pitching against the Diamondbacks in a hitter-friendly environment in Arizona. Wheeler has a solid strikeout rate (21.6%) this season and the Diamondbacks have the fourth highest strikeout rate (23.7%) against righties this season. The Diamondbacks’ lineup could also be down a couple of their primary hitters with both A.J. Pollock and David Peralta potentially out with injuries. Wheeler could still get blown up but he could also have sneaky upside on a tough slate to find pitchers with upside.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Mets vs. Zack Godley
Godley has pitched well in his first two starts of the season with a 2.25 ERA and 26.7% strikeout rate. However, in his career, he has a 5.04 ERA and just a 20% strikeout rate so some regression should be coming. The Mets get a favorable park adjustment playing in Arizona in a game with the highest Vegas total on the slate.
Michael Conforto (FD-$4,200 / DK-$4,600) – Conforto has had quite a run over his last 14 games with a .382 average, five homers and 15 RBIs. For the season, he has a .466 wOBA and .356 ISO versus righties.
Jay Bruce (FD-$4,000 / DK-$4,700) – Bruce has been crushing righties this season with nine of his 10 long balls with a .445 wOBA and .361 ISO.
Neil Walker (FD-$3,700 / DK-$4,200) – Walker is heating up with three straight multi-hit games including two doubles and two homers as he is riding a six-game hitting streak.
Lucas Duda (FD-$2,600 / DK-$4,000) – Duda returned to the Mets’ lineup over the weekend, he has a career .360 wOBA and .223 ISO versus righties.
Dodgers vs. Matt Cain
After a few good starts to begin the season Cain got roughed up in Cincinnati and squeaked through five innings in a start against the Mets. His ERA has soared above each of the last two seasons and there is no reason to believe the negative trend won’t continue this season. Cain has allowed a .384 wOBA to lefties so far this season (.386 last year).
Corey Seager (FD-$3,600 / DK-$4,600) – Can’t have a Dodgers’ stack with Seager who has a career .406 wOBA and .226 ISO versus right-handers.
Cody Bellinger (FD-$3,300 / DK-$4,400) – Bellinger continues to start out hot to begin his career especially against righties with a .466 wOBA and .438 ISO through his first 48 at-bats.
Yasmani Grandal (FD-$2,900 / DK-$3,500) – Grandal is riding an eight-game hitting streak batting .484 with four doubles and a home run during the stretch. He has a career .347 wOBA and .203 ISO versus righties.
Justin Turner (FD-$3,300 / DK-$4,100) – Turner’s power stroke hasn’t started yet this season with just one homer but he is hitting the ball hard with a 34.5% hard contact rate compared to just a 10.6% soft contact rate. Be patient the hits and power will come, maybe against Cain who allowed a 1.87 HR/9 to righties last season.
Contrarian Stack
Braves vs. Mike Bolsinger
The Braves are always a contrarian stack even when they are in a good spot as they are on Monday. The will face right-hander Bolsinger in a hitter-friendly environment in Toronto. Bolsinger has allowed a .361 wOBA to lefties in his career and 1.35 HR/9 to righties in his career.
Freddie Freeman (FD-$4,900 / DK-$4,900) – Freeman is having a sensational season including a massive .493 wOBA and .377 ISO versus right-handers.
Matt Kemp (FD-$3,900 / DK-$3,900) – Kemp hasn’t homered since April 29th but has hits in 16 of his last 18 games and his capable of a multi-homer game at any time.
Ender Inciarte (FD-$3,400 / DK-$3,600) – Inciarte is 3-for-6 with a double off Bolsinger and has hit all five of his homers this season of righties.
Brandon Phillips (FD-$2,600 / DK-$3,300) – Phillip has a cheap price tag that could help allow you to help pair a Braves stack with a high-priced stack like the Mets or Dodgers.
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