It’s Adam Conley Day! If you have followed my column this season, then you know that Conley has become a favorite of mine and I consider myself a bit of an “Adam Conley whisperer” with the ability to predict his good and bad starts. I have correctly faded Conley in his bad starts and selected him twice so far with great success. Also on today’s slate, I have a unique pick as my Darkhorse selection.
Ace
Felix Hernandez (FD-$11,000 / DK-$11,900)
Hernandez’s peripheral numbers say he is due for some regression from his 2.21 ERA this season and while I believe that some regression will come eventually, I do not think it will come tonight against a Twins team that has struck out 23.3% of the time and carry just a .303 wOBA against righties which both rank as the 7th worst this season. Hernandez and the Mariners also come in as the biggest favorite on the board. Hernandez can be used as both a Cash and GPP option.
Value
Chris Archer (FD-$9,400 / DK-$7,900)
Archer has had a rocky season so far with a 5.16 ERA but has still registered an 11.2 K/9 and holds a 3.48 xFIP, which leads me to believe that better days are ahead for Archer. He will get to pitch at home tonight against the Yankees where he has a 2.35 ERA in four starts this season. I especially like Archer tonight on DraftKings where he continues to be underpriced.
Adam Conley (FD-$8,000 / DK-$7,500)
As I stated in the intro, today is Adam Conley Day, who is one of my favorite pitchers on the slate tonight despite all of the aces and rookie phenoms taking the hill. He faces a Braves team that ranks 7th worst in K-rate (23.5%) and dead last in ISO (.086) and wOBA (.257) against lefties this season. Conly should also have a good shot for the win as the Braves have just two wins in 22 games at home this season. Conley is a great option if you want to save some money at pitcher to allow you to get exposure to Coors Field today.
Darkhorse
Jacob deGrom (FD-$9,600 / DK-$9,900)
Typically, my Darkhorse pick is a cheaper option who I feel has some upside and will be lower-owned. Today, I am just going for the lower-owned angle which I think that deGrom will be going up against the Dodgers’ hype-machine that is Julio Urias. I expect Urias himself to be a very popular play given his price and while I think he will pitch well, I could see the Dodgers limiting his innings which could reduce his volume of strikeouts and chance for a win. So I will go with deGrom on the other side of the matchup who has a 2.65 ERA at home this season and faces a Dodgers team that has a .131 ISO (4th worst) and .302 wOBA (6th worst) against righties this season.
On the Hill – Results
Wednesday
| Date | Type | Pitcher | DK $ | DK Pts | Grade |
| 25-May | Value | Junior Guerra | 7400 | 18.45 | C |
| 25-May | Value | Hisashi Iwakuma | 7500 | 16.95 | C |
| 25-May | Dark | Mike Foltynewicz | 6400 | 19.95 | B |
Season
| Type | A+ | A | B | C | D | F | Tot | DK Cost | DK Pts | DO Score |
| Ace | 10 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 29 | $11,507 | 23.27 | 5.03 |
| Value | 10 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 1 | 16 | 62 | $8,408 | 16.15 | 3.18 |
| Dark | 12 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 33 | $6,636 | 16.36 | 4.58 |
- DK Cost is the average DraftKings cost per pitcher selected
- DK Pts is the average DraftKings points scored per pitcher selected
- DO Score is the Daily Overlay score for each type
Come back to DailyOverlay later today for the MLB Consensus list and some sample MLB lineups.
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