We have a split slate on Thursday with five games on the early slate and four games on the night slate. I’ll be pulling double duty today with an abbreviated “On the Hill” article for each slate. The early slate of five games has a couple of ace pitching options squaring off against each other but there is a value pitcher that I have a strong hunch will be one of the highest scoring pitchers on the slate.
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Noah Syndergaard (FD-$10,800 / DK-$11,600)
Both Syndergaard and Carlos Martinez are viable options on this slate. You can try to fit them both in on DraftKings and still have a decent lineup in Cash games but if you choose just one, I’ll give the edge to Syndergaard. He and Martinez have almost reverse ERAs vs. xFIPs this season with Syndergaard’s ERA at 3.29 while his xFIP is only 1.95. Meanwhile, Martinez has a 1.42 ERA and 3.86 xFIP. Syndergaard also has a much higher strikeout rate (34.8%) so far this season. I’d even lean toward Syndergaard on FD even though he costs $1,300 more.
Value
Ivan Nova (FD-$8,200 / DK-$8,000)
Nova is the guy that I have a gut feel will throw a dominating effort on Thursday afternoon. The reason has more to do with yesterday than it does today. You see the Tigers and Pirates played a doubleheader on Wednesday that went into the night including the Pirates’ bullpen pitching eight-plus innings. Now, the two teams make a quick turnaround for an early game on a getaway day where the Pirates will want their starter to pitch deep into the game. Nova pounds the strike zone and is more than capable of keeping his pitch count low and getting deep into the game. Meanwhile, the Tigers could rest some of their regulars and will also be looking to get out of town. I wouldn’t be surprised if Nova throws a complete game allowing only a run or two with a solid 5-7 strikeouts while getting a win. I’ll use him in GPPs and possibility as my #2 starter in Cash games on DK.
Darkhorse
Jordan Montgomery (FD-$7,800 / DK-$7,800)
Montgomery will face a Twins’ team that has struggled against lefties so far this season with the 6th highest strikeout rate (26.8%) and a wOBA (.286) and wRC+(75) ranking in the bottom seven. Meanwhile, Montgomery and the Yankees are the biggest Vegas favorite on the board this afternoon. Montgomery’s strikeout numbers haven’t been too impressive this season (18.7%) and the Twins do have a couple big right-handed bats, so I’ll limit my exposure to him to GPPs.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Braves vs. Homer Bailey
Bailey has actually done a decent job so far this season with a 3.68 ERA has only allowed more than three runs in one of his five starts. However, last season he posted a 7.90 ERA at home which included five out of 10 home starts allowing at least four runs. The Braves’ offense could get a little jolt with the recently called up hot prospect Ronald Acuna in the mix. Bailey has allowed damage to both sides of the plate with a .356 wOBA by lefties and a .394 wOBA by righties last season.
Freddie Freeman (FD-$4,500 / DK-$5,300)
Ozzie Albies (FD-$4,100 / DK-$4,600)
Ender Inciarte (FD-$3,200 / DK-$4,000)
Ronald Acuna (FD-$3,200 / DK-$3,700)
Yankees vs. Kyle Gibson
Using a Yankees’ stack at home against Gibson is an obvious play but I’ll try to get a little contrarian by using the bottom half of the lineup instead of the typical big, high-priced sluggers. Gibson allowed a .358 wOBA to lefties and .352 wOBA to righties last season although more of the power numbers came from righties with a 1.69 HR/9.
Aaron Hicks (FD-$3,900 / DK-$3,800)
Tyler Austin (FD-$3,500 / DK-$3,900)
Miguel Andujar (FD-$3,700 / DK-$3,900)
Gleyber Torres (FD-$2,900 / DK-$3,300)
Contrarian Stack
Diamondbacks vs. Ben Lively
Lively has been lit up by lefties so far in his young career allowing a .432 wOBA and 1.74 HR/9. He has also already faced the Diamondbacks twice last season and didn’t fare too well allowing seven runs including three homers in 11.2 innings. Even on a short afternoon slate, the Diamondbacks should be fairly low owned.
David Peralta (FD-$3,600 / DK-$4,200)
Paul Goldschmidt (FD-$4,400 / DK-$5,200)
Chris Owings (FD-$2,400 / DK-$3,300)
Alex Avila (FD-$2,400 / DK-$3,000)
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