The MLB Opening Day has finally arrived! Time for the crack of the bat, the pop of the glove and, of course, DFS baseball. This year my “On the Hill” column will take on the same format as last season, where I list “3 Up” which includes the pitchers that I like on the slate including one “Ace”, one “Value” option and one “Darkhorse”. Then I will give my “3 Down” which are three pitchers to stack against including my two “Top Stacks” and one “Contrarian Stack”. My picks are more geared toward DraftKings nine (eight) game “main” slate but can also be used on FanDuel.
Fire up the grill for some brats, hot dogs and burgers and take in some Opening Day MLB action while you get some DFS action on the side. Let’s play ball!
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Chris Sale (FD-$11,200 / DK-$12,200)
Sale starts out the opener with a matchup against the Rays in Tampa. The Rays led the league in K% (25.9%) versus southpaws last season and did their lineup no favors in the offseason. Sale is the biggest Vegas favorite on the DK main slate and has had a lot of success against the current group of Rays’ hitters allowing just a .266 wOBA while posting a 29.6% strikeout rate in 98 career plate appearances. Sale went seven innings on 104 pitches in his first start last season, so don’t expect his outing to get cut short like others may.
Value
Danny Duffy (FD-$7,700 / DK-$7,700)
I’ll start out with my only concern with rostering Duffy, he did leave his last Spring Training start with some shoulder stiffness. This may be enough to keep me away from him in Cash games, instead pivoting to someone like a similarly-priced Chase Anderson on two-pitcher sites. Back to Duffy… He is pitching in a bad hitter’s environment on Thursday with the game played in pitching-friendly Kansas City with temperatures in the upper 40s and the wind blowing in about 10 mph. Duffy is a sizable home favorite with James Shields toeing the rubber on the other side for the White Sox. He pitched much better at home (3.48 ERA / .292 wOBA) than on the road and Kansas City has one of the lowest average runs scored in April over the last three seasons.
Darkhorse
Garrett Richards (FD-$8,000 / DK-$6,800)
I figure that I better recommend Richards before he blows out his arm again with only 12 starts over the last two seasons. He has an elite fastball and a ton of potential if he can stay healthy. Richards will face an Athletics’ team that had the 4th highest strikeout rate (24.4%) against right-handed pitchers last season. He is a small road favorite in a pitcher-friendly park in Oakland and has the strikeout potential desired for a GPP play.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Orioles vs. Jake Odorizzi
The game at Camden Yards has one of the higher expected temperatures on the day and a right-handed heavy Orioles’ lineup to take advantage of right-hander Odorizzi’s reverse-splits. Odorizzi has allowed a .328 wOBA to righties during his career to go along with a 1.57 HR/9 rate.
Manny Machado (FD-$3,900 / DK-$4,800) – Machado has hit four homers in 43 career ABs against Odorizzi and posted a .369 wOBA and .246 ISO against righties at home last season.
Adam Jones (FD-$3,000 / DK-$4,000) – Jones has a career .326 average (43 ABs) with two homers off Odorizzi and some reverse-splits of his own to match Odorizzi with a .343 wOBA and .194 ISO against righties in his career.
Jonathan Schoop (FD-$3,400 / DK-$4,100) – Power hitting 2B are hard to find but Schoop has hit 25+ bombs in back-to-back seasons. He has also fared well against Odorizzi in his career hitting 11-for-29 (.379) with four doubles and a long ball.
Chris Davis (FD-$2,700 / DK-$3,700) – In a surprise move it looks like Davis will bat leadoff for the Orioles in their opener. While Davis is a left-handed bat that can’t take advantage of Odorizzi’s reverse-splits he should get plenty of pitches to hit batting ahead of Machado and is always capable of making your fantasy day with one swing of the bat. He does have three homers in 33 career ABs against Odorizzi.
Angels vs. Kendall Graveman
Graveman allows a lot of contact with just 14.8% K-rate in his career. He has struggled against the division-rival Angels in his career allowing a .365 wOBA and eight homers and just a 15.3% strikeout rate in 170 plate appearances by current Angels’ hitters. He has been worse against righties allowing a .365 wOBA last season. Stacking up the right-handed heavy top of the Angels lineup won’t break the bank either.
Mike Trout (FD-$4,800 / DK-$5,000) – Not that you ever need a reason to roster Trout but he is batting .370 (10-for-27) off Graveman in his career with a pair of homers and had a .450 wOBA and .359 ISO against righties last season.
Justin Upton (FD-$3,600 / DK-$4,700) – Upton has been known to get off to fast starts as Mar/Apr has been his best month over his career with a .369 wOBA and .238 ISO. He might not get to starter Graveman but could take advantage of an A’s bullpen that surrendered the 9th highest HR/9 rate to opposing righties last season.
Ian Kinsler (FD-$3,200 / DK-$4,200) – The newest Angel will likely sit atop the lineup and see plenty of pitches to hit with Trout behind him. He has a .363 wOBA and .207 ISO off fastballs in his career.
Albert Pujols (FD-$2,500 / DK-$3,700) – Pujols has had a lot of success against Graveman in his career going 13-for-30 (.433) with three home runs. Getting aging players early in the season while they are the healthiest and rested as they will be all season is also a benefit, not to mention the reasonable price tag.
Contrarian Stack
Twins vs. Dylan Bundy
Everybody is going to be flocking to the other side of this matchup (as am I) with the Orioles. However, it is a great opportunity for a game stack using the Twins against Bundy. Bundy’s xFIP has been worse than his ERA in each of his first two seasons in the majors and he allowed a 1.36 HR/9 rate to lefties and 1.39 HR/9 rate to righties last season. Also, as I mentioned earlier the weather in Baltimore is reasonably warm compared to some other venues on the slate (I’m looking at you Kansas City). If you want a cheap stack to fit in an Ace pitcher, here it is.
Logan Morrison (FD-$2,500 / DK-$4,100) – LoMo is 5-for-12 with a pair of long balls off Bundy in his career and posted a .374 wOBA and .298 ISO against righties last season.
Eddie Rosario (FD-$2,600 / DK-$3,500) – Rosario quietly had a breakout season last year with 27 homers and a .290 average. Hitting in the middle of the Twins’ lineup on Opening Day, Rosario mashed righties last year with a .377 wOBA and .268 ISO. What a value price tag!
Miguel Sano (FD-$3,500 / DK-$4,700) – Sano crushed right-handed pitching on the road last season with a .396 wOBA and .308 ISO.
Max Kepler (FD-$2,300 / DK-$3,500) – To be a little more contrarian, instead of plugging in Brian Dozier atop the Twins lineup, I’m going the other way deeper into the lineup with a cheap Max Kepler. Kepler had more success against right-handed pitching with a .350 wOBA and .212 ISO last year.
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