Thursday bring us another split slate with six afternoon games for a six-game slate on DraftKings (five on FanDuel minus the Diamondback/Dodgers). The weather could also play a factor this afternoon as temps are starting to heat up and the wind seems like it is blowing out at least 10 mph in almost every matchup. I’ll provide only abbreviated analysis of my picks as I will be pulling double duty with a write up for the night slate as well later today.
Be sure to sign up for our Premium Content so you don’t miss out on any of the content we have here at DailyOverlay.
Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Patrick Corbin (FD-$N/A / DK-$12,500)
Corbin has been mowing down opposing hitters this season with at least seven strikeouts in each of his six starts. He historically pitches better at home (3.39 ERA compared to 4.73 on the road) and will be facing a Dodgers offense that was just shut down by a pair of Marlins lefties that aren’t nearly as good as Corbin this past weekend. Corbin has a 26.1% strikeout rate against Dodgers hitters in 84 career plate appearances and that number could rise on Thursday afternoon with the way Corbin is pitching this season. He should be locked into all Cash game lineups where possible and strongly considered in GPPs.
Value
Lance McCullers Jr. (FD-$9,000 / DK-$9,100)
On the FanDuel early slate you won’t be able to roster Corbin, so a pivot to McCullers is the next best thing. McCullers should also likely be your #2 SP on two-pitcher sites. The Astros hard-throwing righties have had their way with the Yankees in this series with Justin Verlander and Charlie Morton throwing a combined 15-plus innings allowing just one run and striking out 24 hitters. McCullers is another hard-throwing right-hander who has pitched considerably better at home over his career with a 2.33 ERA (4.97 on the road) with a 29.4% strikeout rate. McCullers is a viable option in both Cash and GPP lineups.
Darkhorse
Jeremy Hellickson (FD-$5,600 / DK-$4,400)
Since there is not much to get excited about in the mid-priced range, I’m going to roll the dice all the way at the bottom of the salary scale with Hellickson. The Nationals offense is hot right now which should give Hellickson some run support to pick up a up win. He won’t offer big strikeout numbers but he has had success against Pirates hitters in his career allowing a minuscule .193 wOBA with a 26.9% strikeout rate. If Hellickson can just pitch five innings allowing a run or two with 3-4 strikeouts and a win, he will be worth his very low salary while allowing you to pay up for some big bats. Worth a GPP flier.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Nationals vs. Trevor Williams
The Nationals offense has found their groove in this series against the Pirates with 21 runs scored through two games. They will look to keep the momentum going against right-hander Trevor Williams who has been solid this season with a 2.29 ERA. However, with a low .222 BABIP, he has a 5.04 xFIP, so a correction should be coming for a guy who walks too many hitters (4.3 BB/9) and allows a lot of contact (5.9 K/9). Ride the wave with the Nationals offense in a game with 90-degree temps and the wind blowing out about 10 mph.
Bryce Harper (FD-$5,100 / DK-$5,700)
Matt Adams (FD-$2,900 / DK-$3,800)
Trea Turner (FD-$4,500 / DK-$4,500)
Howie Kendrick (FD-$3,300 / DK-$3,400)
Mets vs. Julio Teheran
Teheran has had his ups and downs over his career and this season. He shutout tonight’s opponent the Mets for seven innings two starts ago but in his last outing he only went three innings with a sore back and decreased velocity on his fastball by three miles per hour. If fully healthy, Teheran could actually be a darkhorse option at pitcher tonight, but I’d rather go the other way and stack against him and the 1.51 HR/9 he allowed to lefties last season (2.57 so far this year) in another game with warm temps (90 degrees) and the winds blowing out about 15 mph.
Asdrubal Cabrera (FD-$3,900 / DK-$3,900)
Michael Conforto (FD-$3,500 / DK-$3,500)
Jay Bruce (FD-$3,100 / DK-$3,600)
Yoenis Cespedes (FD-$4,200 / DK-$4,200)
Contrarian Stack
Astros vs. Masahiro Tanaka
The Astros are always stackable with their potent lineup and power. This is mostly a BvP play as the Astros hitters have had a lot of success against Tanaka in his career with a .510 wOBA including seven home runs in just 53 plate appearances. The quartet of bats in the stack below are a combined 14-for-34 (.412) with six homers off Tanaka who allowed a .374 wOBA and 2.06 HR/9 on the road to righties last season. Alex Bregman, who hit HR #7 off Tanaka can also be considered.
Carlos Correa (FD-$4,200 / DK-$4,900)
George Springer (FD-$4,400 / DK-$4,900)
Jose Altuve (FD-$4,300 / DK-$5,100)
Josh Reddick (FD-$3,000 / DK-$3,800)
Follow me on Twitter @Rotopilot
