It’s one more Friday closer to football season!
OK, I’m not really going there today, just wanted to see if you are paying attention.
It is Friday though and we have 15 games to tackle for DFS purposes.
We have Coors on the slate, again, which is fine with me because it’s been a consistent producer of money lately.
And this slate is absolutely perfect for loading up on bats and leaving the upper-tier pitchers alone. There’s plenty in the mid-tier to love and that should allow you plenty of salary relief to stack up all the offenses you desire. The pricing for bats on DK absolutely reflects that, too. I feel there are far more players in the $5K range and above than normal. If that’s going to be the new norm, then we may need to change the way we place value on hitters moving forward.
I think that idea is slate specific because of the mid-tier pitching options, Coors, the lack of pitching studs available and all of the good offenses that are up against trash.
So load up, forget the guys at the top. Let’s do this and may the Force be with you!
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS – VALUE STACK OF THE SLATE
1. Andrew McCutchen
2. Buster Posey
3. Nick Hundley
4. Mac Williamson
Analysis: I will always take a stack against Clayton Richard. He can play in PETCO or the Sandlot. I don’t care. I especially will take Giants bats against him – for many reasons. For one, they have BvP against Richard, they hit lefties well and the Giants are just a team I love to target for late-night hammers. No one ever rosters them due to the favorable pitching environment. And to that I say is environment doesn’t matter when you have good hitters against a bad pitcher. If you intend on stacking expensive bats, as I have suggested, you are going to need some value. Introducing the value stack of the slate. You can play all four together or plug and play as one-offs if you need to round out a lineup. This 4-man stack features all guys with ISOs of .200 or better and wOBAs of .347 or better. As I mentioned earlier, they all have BvP success against Richard in the past. McCutchen’s stands out most with a .500 batting average, 2 home runs and 5 walks. Hundley is 5-for-9 with a dinger, Posey is 12-for-32 with 2 bombs and 9 RBIs and Mac is 1-for-2, but he has a hit nonetheless. To further the argument for this stack (and my core by the way), Richard owns a .320 wOBA, a 43% hard contact rate and a 1.13 HR/9 rate against RH bats.
BOSTON RED SOX
1. Mookie Betts
2. J.D. Martinez
3. Xander Bogaerts
Analysis: Let’s see how well Wade LeBlanc does in Fenway this time around. You know, it’s surprising the Red Sox are 27th in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. J.D. has not flashed power against lefties just yet, but his 50% hard contact rate suggests, at some point, the power will come. Betts leads this team against lefties with a ridiculous line – .437 wOBA, .423 ISO and 38% hard contact rate. Bogaerts doesn’t have the power, but he takes care of business with a .379 wOBA and .170 ISO. LeBlanc struck this team out 9 times en route to a 30+ point fantasy outing, but I will bet that doesn’t happen in Fenway and the Green Monster, the eater of fly balls. LeBlanc has a 2.51 ERA against RH bats this season, but his 4.06 xFIP shows us that regression is somewhere on the horizon. Hopefully, some of that starts to happen tonight.
LOS ANGELES ANGELS
1. Mike Trout
2. Justin Upton
3. Albert Pujols
Analysis: Marco Estrada, one of the many names that pain me to see on a slate. Unfortunately for Estrada, he takes on the Angels on the road, a right-handed heavy team that has put up some runs against him in the past. Estrada is a reverse-splits pitcher, and he’s most definitely followed that narrative this year as he has a .375 wOBA, 2.11 HR/9 and 5.01 xFIP against RH bats this season. Trout is doing more than just Trout things this season. He’s taken it to another level. Against Estrada in his career, Trout has 2 home runs and 4 total hits in 10 career ABs. Upton is 4-for-7 with a couple of doubles and Pujols is 4-for-10 with a long ball. All three of these guys for the Angels have ISOs of .180 or above against RH pitching this season all have at least a 40% hard contact rate against righties, too. But here are Trout numbers against righties this year – .465 wOBA, .343 ISO, 206 wRC+ and a 48% hard contact rate.
HOUSTON ASTROS
1. Jose Altuve
2. Alex Bregman
3. George Springer
Analysis: I know I probably piss and moan too much about the Astros’ offensive woes at home, but this team is hitting well and showed some pop in their last couple of home games earlier in the week. I will take another crack at the Astros against southpaw Danny Duffy. Altuve is 8-for-18 against Duffy in his career with 3 doubles and 3 walks. Springer has 3 hits in 12 ABs, two of which are HRs. You could certainly make this a 5-man stack with Marwin, Gattis or Max Stassi. Bregman has a .364 wOBA, .213 ISO and 40% hard contact rate against lefties. Meanwhile, Duffy has not been Duffy. He’s been more like Buffy against RH pitching, allowing a .373 wOBA, 1.75 HR/9 and 5.58 xFIP.
