Hello Jason Voorhies Day!
I am not really superstitious but we are here to talk about a DFS sport that surrounds itself with superstitions – unwashed jock straps and socks, late-inning rally caps, rally monkeys, hopping over chalk lines to and from the field, etc.
As a DFS player, I don’t have any superstitions for lineup construction per se, but the only thing that might come close to that is tinkering with lineups for far too long and changing things in and out frequently, rarely leads to profit for this guy.
Set it and forget it…unless you get some late-breaking news.
Perhaps today is one surrounded by good luck rather than bad luck and superstitions. To hopefully help you rid of any bad juju you may be experiencing in DFS right now, let’s take a long at today’s biggest slate of the year.
We have 13 games on the Friday slate….that’s the perfect number of games for today. Well played, MLB?
Anyway, there are a few stacks that I think appear pretty obvious where ownership is going to be directed. One of those will be the red-hot Boston Red Sox against Patheticville Chris Tillman. I think this will be the top stack of the slate, so we will leave them off the board as part of tonight’s recommendations.
I hope you are enjoying this facet of DailyOverlay and I hope you have found it helpful. As we get more solid data for the 2018 season, I hope to be able to provide more stats and trends to help solidify these recommendations. As I said Wednesday, I hope you will utilize the Expert Consensus as a tool for lineup construction in both cash games and gpps.
Good luck, and may the force be with you!
MIAMI MARLINS
1. Justin Bour – $2,900
2. Derek Dietrich – $3,000
Total Cost – $5,900
Percentage of Salary Cap – 12%
Combined 2018 Home Runs – 3
Opposing SP HR/9 vs. L – 1.18
Opposing SP HR/9 vs. R – 0.75
Justification – Here’s a rule of DFS that you need to write down if you are not aware of it – lefties vs. Chad Kuhl. While solid and efficient against RH pitching (.304 wOBA against), he is stone cold awful against left-handed bats, evidenced by his .372 wOBA and 38% hard contact rate against. Justin Bour has yet to really get it going, but .239 ISO and .366 wOBA shows he’s stout against RH pitching. At $2,900 and in a dream matchup, Bour is one of the better values on the board. Derek Dietrich is starting strong out of the gate. As the team’s leadoff man, he has some pop as well with a .171 ISO and a .342 wOBA against RH pitching since the start of the 2016 season. For the record, I like Kuhl as a value play on this slate.
HOUSTON ASTROS
1. George Springer – $4,900
2. Jose Altuve – $5,200
3. Carlos Correa – $5,100
4. Alex Bregman – $4,300
Total Cost – $19,400
Percentage of Salary Cap – 39%
Combined 2018 Home Runs – 5
Opposing SP HR/9 vs. L – 0.71
Opposing SP HR/9 vs. R – 1.28
Justification – Well, I hate Cole Hamels. I have since the Rangers traded for him. Overrated, in my opinion. Now his velocity is about as good as a BP fast ball (see DraftKings news and notes on it). And a date with the Astros seems like a deadly combination that I think will go way underowned with the Red Sox and Yankees on the board. As you know or can tell, the Astros are struggling out of the gate offensively. Altuve is without a homer and the other three have combined for 5 home runs total. That’s all going to change sooner than later. I’ve been chasing that first Altuve homer, so I am going to be heavy on him against tonight. The numbers for these four guys against lefties is a bit ridiculous. Now, you have to spend almost 40% of your salary to stack them, but there’s value on this slate (see Boud, Justin and Kuhl, Chad). Here are the wOBA’s for Springer, Altuve, Bregman and Correa against lefties since 2016, respectively – .401, .392, .376 and .372.
