Happy American Independence Day!
Well, I guess it’s not really a “happy” event, per se, but there’s day baseball, family gatherings, fireworks, food, beer and DFS baseball.
So there’s lots of happiness in all of that these days I suppose, and for DFS purposes, we have two slates of 7 games games so we will tackle them both for The Stack. As usual with split slates, the early slate is free to all of you while subscribers get access to the full late slate.
Hope The Stack helps you out and you are atop the leaderboards today. Good luck and be safe on the 4th!
EARLY SLATE
GAME STACK – SAN DIEGO PADRES @ OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Padres
1. Christian Villanueva
2. Hunter Renfroe
1. Matt Olson
2. Khris Davis
3. Jed Lowrie
4. Dustin Fowler
Analysis: We get the return of Luis Perdomo to DFS as the Padres visit the Oakland A’s. Perdomo is a lefty batter’s wet dream and a righty batters’ supplement. The Padres have two lefty mashers that i always will target, and today will be no different. Thus, we have a nice, low-owned game stack on our hands today. Perdomo owns a .463 wOBA, a 50% hard contact rate and a 1.17 HR/9 to lefties. Against RH bats, Perdomo owns a .383 wOBA and a 3.93 x FIP (compared to a 2.84 ERA). The four A’s listed all have solid numbers against RH pitching. Lowrie, Davis and Olson all have ISOs of .243 or greater while Fowler has an ISO of .161, but he’s got a 46% hard contact rate against RH pitching this season. If he cracks the leadoff spot, he’s a great value play on today’s slate. As for the Padres’ side, Villanueva and Renfroe are the only two bats for Manaea to fear. That’s because Villy has a wOBA of .469 and ISO of .466 against lefies while Renfroe owns a .381 wOBA and .235 ISO.
NEW YORK YANKEES
1. Didi Gregorius
2. Aaron Judge
3. Gleyber Torres
4. Aaron Hicks
Analysis: Julio Teheran in Yankee Stadium? O…..K. Didi is my favorite overall play of the early slate. Lefties against Teheran own a .342 wOBA, 40% hard contact rate, 1.56 HR/9 and a 5.71 xFIP. Against RH pitching, Teheran is allowing a 1.52 HR/9 and a .200 BABIP! Judge is the ultimate RH-crushing bat and he’s on fire right now. Torres got a day off Tuesday, so he should have a premium spot in the lineup and he, too, mashes RH pitching. Hicks is on fire right now with either a HR or multiple hits in 3-straight games. He has an ISO over .200 against RH pitching and with him being hot, he should see a great spot in this lineup, too.
EVENING SLATE
HOUSTON ASTROS
1. George Springer
2. Max Stassi
3. Yuli Gurriel
4. Alex Bregman
5. Jose Altuve
Analysis: As of this writing (Tuesday night), there are a few teams without a designated starting pitcher. Coors is on this slate and I love Coors today, so it’s truthfully going to be hard to get off that game for me. But I have three stacks to differentiate if I wanted some lower-owned options. One of them are the Astros against lefty Mike Minor. It’s going to be absolutely hot again and the Astros cruise on the road. Minor has been decent this season, but he’s not used to pitching in the Texas’ heat and the heat will win if good power hitters are making contact. Springer seems to be showing signs of life and this is perfect timing against a lefty, which he has a .383 wOBA and .257 ISO against this season. Springer is 4-for-9 with 3 walks against Minor in his career. If Stassi cracks the lineup, he’s 2-for-5 with a double and a dinger against Minor. He also sports a .394 wOBA and .238 ISO against lefties. Bregman is the leader of the pack in this group. He’s been hitting near the top of the order and is red hot at the plate. Against southpaws, he has a .414 wOBA, .289 ISO and 41% hard contact. Gurriel and Altuve havne’t flashed the power against lefties like they have in the past, but they are great hitters, on the road and get a hot environment against Texas pitchers. Gurriel and Altuve are 7-for-16 combined against Minor with a double, a home run and two walks. Altuve also has 3 steals against him as well. Minor allows 43% hard contact, a 1.41 HR/9 and 4.74 xFIP.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
1. Curtis Granderson
2. Teoscar Hernandez
3. Justin Smoak
Analysis: The Blue Jays get to face a young, inexperienced RH bat today at home. The BJs draw Corey Oswalt, who in limited appearances this year has set the world ablaze with his home run allowance – 5.4 HR/9 against lefties and 3.18 HR/9 against righties. He has positive regression in his favor against RH bats, so I am going to stick with BJs lefties. Granderson, Hernandez and Smoak are the top-3 bats against RH pitching in Toronto. Each has a wOBA of .345 wOBA or better, an ISO of .222 or better and hard hit rates of 36% or better. They surely will go overlooked today in favor of the Astros, Reds and Coors.
CINCINNATI REDS
1. Joey Votto
2. Scooter Gennett
3. Scott Schebler
4. Jesse Winker
Analysis: Speaking of the Reds, will this be the third straight day against the White Sox that they do a lot of damage? Cincy takes on Dylan Covey, who sports a .370 wOBA against lefties along with a 37% hard hit rate, a 1.38 HR/9 rate and 5.07 xFIP. All four lefties have wOBAs of .340 or better against RH pitching this season. Winker doesn’t have the power, but he has a 44% hard hit rate against righties that could inflate those power numbers eventually. Votto doesn’t have a huge power rate against righties either, but he gets the job done. Gennett and Schebler have ISOs of .179 and .234, respectively. They get another crack to put up runs in the Great American Smallpark against a struggling pitcher and against the White Sox who got roughed up yesterday and had to utilize a lot of their bullpen.
