The Nationals can suck it.
Calling that game last night after lock, after 30 minutes since its scheduled start, immediately announcing A.J. Cole’s start would be skipped, and with no threat of rain the rest of the night and AFTER the bulk of the rain had moved through, was such a tilting move. I really had the nuts last night except a possible big night was sunk due to shady business.
Still a solid night in DFS for me, but it could’ve been way better.
But we move on, my rant is over and I say DraftKings and other fantasy sites need to add a late swap option (maybe up to 2 limit) for players in a PPD game. You can only select from the unlocked player pool and swap out the PPD guys. You can already swap guys who get scratched or aren’t in a lineup when they are released, so what’s the difference?
Anyway, my rant is over and we must move on to today, another freebie Value Index on a 15-game slate.
Let’s get it on!
Jay Bruce – 1B/OF – New York Mets – $4,600
Analysis: Bruuuuuuuce has hits in three straight games, including a double and a HR. Bruce is a streaky hitter who really has been hitting well in recent weeks. He gets a huge ballpark shift to Miller Park against Milwaukee Beer Can Matt Garza. Miller is a park that strongly favors left-handed hitting as well. Garza has pitched “well” since returning from injury, but his SIERA is a run and a half higher than his ERA and he’s been allowing 42% hard contact this season, so while he’s given up just 5 ER in 3 starts, the floodgates will come for offenses against Garza. Garza is allowing a .442 wOBA to lefties this season and a 3.00 HR/9 accompanied by a 43.5% hard contact rate. Meanwhile, Bruce is 12-for-33 with 4 doubles, 3 HRs and 5 walks against Garza. Bruce has 9 HRs against RH pitchers this year and has a .470 wOBA, a .393 ISO and a 47% hard contact rate this season. The stars aligning yet?
Danny Duffy – SP – Kansas City Royals – $8,600
Analysis: Danny Duffy has some odd stats this season. He has an 11% SwStr rate, but less than 6 K/9 rate. He has near a 5.00 SIERA but allowing less than 30% hard contact rate. I don’t know what to make of all of that, but Duffy hasn’t been striking out batters recently and gets a very favorable strikeout matchup against Baltimore, who is 20th in wOBA against lefties this season while striking out 24% of the time. A date at Kaufmann Stadium favors Duffy, who has limited home runs allowed so far this season. Duffy also has the BvP against many of the B-More bats as the current roster is 10-for-76 with 1 HR, just 3 walks and 32 Ks. Those are great numbers against the O’s, so I am hopeful he can continue his dominance.
Miguel Gonzalez – SP – Chicago White Sox – $8,000
Analysis: It’s MIguel Gonzalez chalk day everyone! Despite the $8K price tag, because let’s face it, he’s still Miguel Gonzalez, he has a great matchup against the Padres who don’t hit much of anything. Against RH pitching, the Padres are 25th in wOBA at .301 with a 24% strike out rate. Gonzalez has been really tough on RH bats since 2016, posting a wOBA under .300 and a hard contact rate under 30%. That leaves Schimpf, Solarte, Spangenberg and Aybar that will bat left, and I am not worried about anyone in that list other than Schimpf, who might hit a HR but will strikeout 4 times in the same game. Gonzalez has been lights out at home this season with an ERA under two.
Josh Harrison – 2B/3B – Pittsburgh Pirates – $3,800
Analysis: After being nearly no-hit last night, I think we have a spot where the Pirates will be underowned despite a solid matchup in a hitter-friendly park. I love targeting Chase Field, especially with Coors on the slate because the ownership dips and the prices reduced. Harrison at this price tag may not seem like a bargain, but his numbers suggest he’s a great play, hitting lefties with a .465 wOBA and a .306 ISO this season. He bats leadoff and is on the road team against Patrick Corbin, who sports a 37% hard contact rate and a 1.42 HR/9 to RH bats this season.
Mike Trout – OF – Los Angeles Angels – $5,300
Analysis: Jordan Zimmermann sucks. He sucks, he really, really sucks. You know who doesn’t suck? MIke Trout. Finally back after sitting out with a tight hamstring, Trout gets a great matchup at home tonight against the Tigers. Since 2016, Zimmermann has allowed a 43% hard contact rate to RH bats to go along with a .430 wOBA and a 2.87 HR/9 rate. I might be all in on Trout tonight after getting that first game back out of the way. His .488 wOBA, .372 ISO and 38% hard contact rate against RH bats since 2016 also helps.
Andrew McCutchen – OF – Pittsburgh Pirates – $3,900
Analysis: After a down year against lefties, the old McCutchen is back to his usual southpaw smashing ways. The same for Harrison vs. Corbin above goes double for Cutch, who has owns a .488 wOBA and a .400 ISO with 3 HRs and a 38% hard contact rate. Add in this ridiculously low price in a ballpark such as Chase Field, umm, yes please!
Khris Davis – OF – Oakland Athletics – $4,200
Analysis: It’s getting warm in Texas and Globe Life is not forgiving in the Texas heat. Andrew Cashner is tonight’s starter for the Rangers, a mediocre pitcher that currently owns a 2.63 ERA and a 6.24 SIERA!! The regression is going to hit hard sometime soon and the A’s are just scrappy enough to make that happen. Now, as for the real Crush Davis, he has a .363 wOBA, a .309 ISO, and a 53% hard contact rate against RH bats since 2016. Against RHs, Cashner owns a .346 wOBA against this season. Davis has a couple of hits off of Cashner with a very limited sample size, but I don’t expect Cashner to last long in this one honestly, and if Davis doesn’t get to Cashner, he will see plenty of noodle-armed relievers out of the Rangers’ bullpen.
