Look at those Angels ride!
Look at those Nats die!
Angels chalk hit in a massive way Monday night.
And the Nationals’ ability to discern weather continues to be mind-numbing. Luckily for this guy, I bailed once the great Kevin Roth was worried about pop-up thunderstorms and the game was going to start in a delay.
It appears the Nats could’ve played most of the game and waited out the rain at the end.
Never trust the Nats when the weather is fat.
I don’t know, just made up that saying.
Anyway, we have a full 15-game slate on tap for Tuesday night and many of the pitching options look like something we would see on Opening Day.
But like Opening Day, there’s plenty of scrubs to choose our bats to attack. Thankfully, it’s 15 games and we shouldn’t have to worry about too much chalk for tournaments.
Below is the table for projected starting pitchers and their xFIPs against both sides of the plate. Remember, the number in parenthesis is in the pitchers’ current ERA versus each handedness.
Oh and one more thing. Washington and Philly postponed, so the starters from Monday could be moved to today, meaning that Fedde and Eflin may not pitch and Patrick Corbin and Jake Arrieta might be back on, assuming weather doesn’t get in the way again.
PITCHERS xFIP vs. LH
1. Daniel Norris – 6.00 (7.36)
2. Antonio Senzatela – 5.78 (7.96)
3. Zach Plesac – 5.77 (2.00)
4. Brett Anderson – 5.65 (3.86)
5. Julio Teheran – 5.55 (2.80)
6. Anthony DeSclafani – 5.45 (6.25)
7. Zach Eflin – 5.31 (3.41)
8. Gabriel Ynoa – 5.09 (4.50)
9. Jack Flaherty – 5.05 (4.84)
10. Tyler Skaggs – 4.88 (1.72)
11. Merrill Kelly – 4.80 (2.83)
12. Ivan Nova – 4.69 (5.66)
PITCHERS xFIP vs. RH
1. Jordan Yamamoto – 6.10 (0.00)
2. Mitch Keller – 5.88 (16.88)
3. Erick Fedde – 5.58 (2.42)
4. Adrian Sampson – 5.38 (4.61)
5. J.A. Happ – 5.09 (5.03)
6. Michael Pineda – 5.05 (5.36)
7. Yusei Kikuchi – 5.01 (5.10)
8. Gabriel Ynoa – 4.92 (5.60)
9. Brett Anderson – 4.87 (3.90)
10. Antonio Senzatela – 4.76 (3.79)
11. Homer Bailey – 4.70 (5.85)
12. Merrill Kelly – 4.66 (4.40)
13. Shaun Anderson – 4.60 (2.21)
So my top stacks today are the Astros, maybe the Nationals, depending on who is pitching, and I like the Rangers, Cubs, and the Diamondbacks. And while I like a few cheap pitching options today, paying up seems tempting considering Kershaw is up against the lowly Giants, a team he has destroyed for years. Jacob deGrom is Jacob deGrom, he’s at home, but does face Atlanta. Verlander is Verlander, too, facing a wimpy Reds team himself.
So for the sake of the Value Index, today will be more about finding those cheaper options or guys who are mispriced. But there are tons of high-priced guys from those stacks above that make a lot of sense.
PITCHERS
Jack Flaherty – vs. Miami Marlins – $8,000
Analysis: If Miles Mikolas can rough this team up, Jack Flaherty can certainly do some damage against the Miami Marlins at home. Miami, as I’ve stated over and over here, are a team I hate to pick on, but they are also just downright bad. They are 29th in team wOBA at .296 with a wimpy ISO of .123 and a strikeout percentage of 22.3%. Flaherty is striking out lefties at only a 7.90 K/9, but he’s whiffing righties at an exceptional 11.74 K/9. The Marlins have tons of righties they will throw out at Flaherty, and he should be able to mow them down.
Tyler Skaggs – at Toronto Blue Jays – $7,600
Analysis: The Blue Jays are so bad that they don’t even play Justin Smoak anymore, their best hitter against right-handed pitching. They are even worse against lefties. Outside of Vlad and Lourdes, Jr. and some random big games from lefty Rowdy Tellez, the Blue Jays are a whipping post for pitching. Skaggs has been solid against both sides of the plate in limited action this season with a wOBA of .302 against lefties and a wOBA of .328 versus righties. He’s striking out lefties at an 8.62 K/9 and righties at a 9.32 K/9. The Blue Jays strike out at a rate of 23.4%, are 26th in wOBA and have a lowly ISO of .168 against southpaws. The Angels have been hot offensively, so Skaggs has a great shot at a win here as well.
Mitch Keller – vs. Detroit Tigers – $5,500
Analysis: If the Tigers weren’t the 30th-ranked team in wOBA against right-handed pitching, I might not even be recommending Mitch Keller today. But he’s the lowest-priced pitcher facing the worst-team in baseball against RH pitching. He’s getting his first home start, which should be more comforting to a rookie pitcher than two straight road starts. In two starts this season, Keller is striking out batters at a 16.20 K/9 vs. lefties and a 10.13 K/9 vs. righties. Now, those are probably extreme numbers, but if he’s going to continue to provide strikeout upside, then he’s in play today against a team striking out 25% of the time against righties. The ballpark bump also doesn’t hurt.
