Today’s NBA Hot Sheet will be my last one of 2017 as I will be busy visiting family for the holidays next week. It will also be FREE so consider it my Christmas present to all of you.
Hopefully, I can finish off a very good week with some more fire for Friday night’s nine-game slate. There are plenty of high-priced studs to choose from and it seems like there is a ton of mid-range value, however, there isn’t much in the discount bin yet, but that can change in an instant with some late scratches.
I hope everyone has a happy holiday season and gets a nice monetary present under their DFS tree.
The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.
Hot Sheet for December 22nd
Droppin’ Dimes (And 1)
James Harden (HOU) – The list of high-priced studs on the Friday slate is deep and all of them are in good spots so it will be hard to go wrong no matter who you pay up for. That said, I think Harden has the most upside with a home game against the Clippers with Chris Paul out. Harden is coming off a 51-point effort on Wednesday and will have massive usage in a favorable matchup against a Clippers’ team that has allowed the 8th most points, 2nd most rebounds and 8th most assists to opposing SGs this season.
John Wall (WAS) – This feels like a “go off” spot for Wall. It will be his fifth game back since returning from injury and he is starting to get his rhythm back with back-to-back double-doubles. Bradley Beal has been leading the charge for the Wizards recently but with him a little banged-up Wall will take back over the lead role on offense in a plus matchup against the up-tempo Nets who have allowed the most points and 4th most rebounds to opposing PGs this season.
Dwight Howard (CHA) – Howard has been a double-double machine this season which shouldn’t change on Friday in a great matchup against the Bucks. The Bucks have allowed the 2nd most points and 4th most rebounds to opposing centers this season and Howard is averaging 12.5 points and 16.5 board in two previous meeting this season. If you want a cheaper upside play at center than consider Jusuf Nurkic playing against his former team (Nuggets).
CJ McCollum (POR) – Speaking of the Blazers, the entire offense gets a usage bump with Damian Lillard out on Friday. McCollum will be the biggest beneficiary with a 7.4% usage increase with Lillard off the court this season. McCollum has played 11 games in his career without Lillard and is averaging 28.4 points, 4.9 rebounds and 5.6 assists in those games.
Austin Rivers (LAC) – The Clippers continue to be thin with so many injuries to key players which has opened the door for players like Rivers and Lou Williams to rise into prominent roles on offense. While Williams might offer more upside than Rivers, he also comes with a bigger salary. Rivers should see minutes in the mid-30s in an up-tempo matchup with the Rockets who will be without elite defender Chris Paul to contain Rivers.
Trevor Ariza (HOU) – With Chris Paul out and Clint Capela doubtful for Friday’s game there will be plenty of minutes to go around to those who remain. While Eric Gordon is a solid option, I like Ariza even more due to the all-around game he brings. He should see a boost in rebounds if Capela is out as he piled up 11 boards in the last game and Ariza should play huge minutes as he has topped 40 in four straight games.
Elfrid Payton (ORL) – Payton has been better at home over his career and gets a home game in a favorable matchup on Friday against the Pelicans. The Pelicans have allowed the 2nd most points and 4th most steals to opposing PGs this season. Payton has topped 30 minutes three of his last four games and is a threat for a triple-double in what should be a close high-scoring game.
Carmelo Anthony (OKC) – Anthony’s salary has finally dropped to the point where he is playable in DFS. He gets plenty of minutes and has an excellent matchup against the Hawks who have allowed the 4th most points, 10th most rebounds and most assists to opposing PFs this season (even worst against SFs if you want to classify him there). Time to give Melo a chance.
Michael Beasley (NY) – Kristaps Porzingis returned to the lineup last night and missed all 11 shots from the field before sitting out the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, Beasley went on to have another huge night with 32 points and 12 rebounds. I’m unsure if Porzingis will play on the second game of a back-to-back after the disaster from last night. If Porzingis does not play then Beasley should be locked into all lineups. If Porzingis plays then maybe only consider Beasley in GPPs.
Mike Scott (WAS) – Scott has been the primary beneficiary with Otto Porter out. Scott has averaged 21.7 points and 4.0 rebounds over his last three games. Porter remains questionable for Friday’s game against the Nets. If Porter is ruled out then fire up Scott again in a great matchup against a Nets’ team that has allowed the 6th most points and 4th most rebounds to opposing PFs this season.
Shabazz Napier (POR) – The other big beneficiary in Portland from Lillard being out should be Napier who I expect will slide into the starting lineup. Napier has been very efficient with his limited playing time this season and over his last five games he is averaging 11 points and 1.6 steals in just over 20 minutes per game. His minutes should rise close to 30 which could allow him to score 15+ points while adding a few assists, rebounds and steals to round out a strong stat line for a cheap price.
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