Please do not excuse this shameless self-promotion.
Two weeks since the debut of the Index, we have vaulted to the top of the Daily Overlay NBA Expert Standings. Yes, It’s just two weeks, and hopefully our picks are closer to the mean than being 18-for-20 from the field with negative regression to follow.
Tonight is another short slate for the NBA with just six games. We have some of the baddest mother….well, some studs to choose from.
I hope this isn’t a reverse-jinx on my part (and I don’t believe in jinxes), but Russell Westbrook feels like the easiest fade on the board. OKC is up against San Antonio on the road, and assuming everyone plays for the Spurs, I don’t see how OKC can keep up with the Thunder as we will likely see Kawhi try to eliminate Westbrook offensively. That leaves Oladipo and Steven Adams to shoulder things offensively. Maybe if this game was in Oklahoma City, but at that lofty price, Westbrook offers limited upside in a tough matchup.
So now you have my anti-pick, shall we get to the 5 official players I like at each of the five positions using DraftKings pricing and position eligibility? (Takes a breath).
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Power Forward
Larry Nance, Jr. – Los Angeles Lakers – vs. Denver Nuggets – $3,300
Analysis: There’s a lot of injury news to sift through tonight, but as am I writing this Monday evening, there is already word of some key players sitting out. One of those guys is Julius Randle, who is battling the flu. When he sits and LNJ is healthy and available, he’s the guy we want to target, even if he doesn’t start. Since returning from injury, Nance has seen a minutes increase in every game. With Randle out, we SHOULD see some more minutes to go Nance’s way. Denver will be playing a combo of hampered players in Wilson Chandler and Kenneth Faried at PF, but even then, the Nuggets allow 46.5 fantasy points per game to the position. Nance is dirt cheap and liable to be underowned should we not get any news of who is starting in Randle’s place.This game in particular has lots of fantasy upside, so make sure you sign up for a free trial of our premium content to see who else I like from this game.
Point Guard
James Harden – Houston Rockets – vs. Sacramento Kings – $12,200
Analysis: If you have made it this far, first off, thank you. Secondly, this is a great bounce back spot for The Beard, who went bananas two games ago, then went full raisin (shriveled, dried, rotten-tasting fruit, you get the analogy now, right?). The Rockets welcome in Boogie and company on a back-to-back and you should know by now that shooting guards against the Kings are a strong play. Harden is a strong play anyway with his 36.1% usage rate coming off a performance dud in his last outing. He handles the ball a lot, too, making him a great point guard play as well. Over Westbrook, Brow and Boogie, Harden is my favorite stud of the night.
Shooting Guard
Nicolas Batum – Charlotte Hornets – vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $7,400
Analysis: Batum has played just three games against his former team, and only one of those games was in Portland. In that one game, Batum had a night to forget, shooting 1-of-11 from the field while scoring just 3 total points. The #RevengeNarrative is in play in this matchup and I would like to believe that Batum remembers that dud against his former team in Portland. Batum has been a solid play for months now and while his price has gone up, he’s one of the more safer plays on the board due to his ability to stuff the stat sheet in all fantasy categories. The Blazers have allowed 40.4 points per game to the position, which is middle of the road in the NBA. Outside of Kemba, who normally plays better at home than on the road, Batum is one of the top offensive players on his team.
Small Forward
Danilo Gallinari – Denver Nuggets – vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $6,300
Analysis: In the past two games without Nikola Jokic, we have seen a spike in production from Gally, and tonight we have another game where the Nuggets’ best play sits. Gally should continue to directly benefit from Jokic’s absence and he gets a great matchup against the Lakers, who give up tons of fantasy points to all positions. This game’s projected total, with no Jokic, plus it being away from Denver, has me rubbing my hands together Mr. Burns style. The Lakers are one of the worst teams defending SFs, allowing 44.6 FPPG, tops on the slate. Gally has a secure number of minutes and one of the highest usage rates on his team without Jokic in the lineup. Do not fret at even an elevated price tag.
Center
Ivica Zubac – Los Angeles Lakers – vs. Denver Nuggets – $3,500
Analysis: We continue the rounds in the Lakers/Nuggets game and lastly we land on youthful center Ivica Zubac, who has played nearly 30 minutes in his last two games. No Julius Randle plus a plodding Timofey Mozgov have provided some rise to the LA phenom and his minutes should be secure with Randle out of the picture. We also don’t worry about the rookie having to contend with Jokic either, another boost to this play at center. With Zubac in the lineup, he has a 20.6% usage rate. Check out the Rotogrinders’ Court IQ tool for more usage information involving all NBA players. It’s a useful tool that is free and should be used by all DFS players. Anyway, Zubac looks primed for another solid dose of minutes at center tonight against the hobbling Nuggets’ frontcourt.
