Five minutes into the start of the NBA season, and we already have a major injury.
If you didn’t see Gordon Heyward’s injury last night, you can obviously find a clip anywhere, but if you can’t handle watching something so gruesome, just know that ankles are made to bend that way.
Turrible.
Oh but hey, the Value Index is here for the 2017-18 season, so welcome back! Last season, I did get in the expert game a little late, but ended the NBA season as the second-ranked “expert” for the 2016-17 season.
Now I don’t like to ever consider myself an expert because if I were, I think I would be working toward being an NBA coach.
To peel back the curtain a little bit, I have finally embraced playing heavy on cash games and having a small amount of exposure to tournaments. I have had a lot of tastes of the big bucks in DFS over the years, but I know taking down a large-field tournament is improbable these days. I try to focus on 3-entry max tournaments and maybe throw in a couple of lineups in the big tournies.
But mostly, especially for NBA, it’s cash games. Head-to-heads, 50/50s and double-ups are how I operate. I play NBA as a casual fan during NFL season and I will increase my bankroll when NFL ends.
The point is, I try to look at things a bit differently when it comes to providing picks. If I was more knowledgeable about the ins and outs of basketball schemes for offense and defense, I probably would breakdown a slate moreso than tout and let you choose from there.
But for this season, I will try to provide my best analysis for the plays I like and why. I try to identify mispricing, guys who are usually consistent but let down the night before, injuries and potential rotation changes on offense. Also keeping track of back-to-backs later in the season matters also. Defense versus a position also is useful, but you do have to take opposing defenders into consideration because DvP is not very analytical.
Anyway, the big boys are always in play, so for me, it’s identifying the value and who I feel is going to hit 5x or better. Sometimes mispricing makes it pretty obvious, too. I also play cash games on bigger slates. I dabbled in the 2-game opener Tuesday, but that would never be a situation I would try to play cash.
Now that you have been introduced to my process, here’s the guys I absolutely love for tonight’s 11-game NBA slate.
The Value Index will have premium days ahead, but since this is the start of the NBA season, I am going to make this week’s content free and will keep you posted on the days that are premium moving forward.
Last of the housekeeping here, but please follow my DailyOverlay Twitter account @hotdogdailyDFS. Hit me up, ask me questions, start a conversation or boo me out of the building, I don’t give a damn!
Jaylen Brown – Boston Celtics – SG/SF – $3,900
Analysis: So watching the Celtics/Cavs opener, it looked like the Celtics were in trouble after the Hayward injury, then Jaylen Brown took over alongside Kyrie and Marcus Smart down the stretch and this small tandem took over the game. Brown was aggressive on the glass and in attacking the rim. He certainly exuded a ton of confidence. He drew the start for the now departed Avery Bradley and due to the Hayward injury, Brown should see a huge usage bump. Pricing was released for this slate prior to the Hayward injury and prior to the end of this contest, so this is a STEAL going up against Milwaukee tonight. I don’t care who guards him on offense.
Jayson Tatum – Boston Celtics – SF/PF – $4,100
Analysis: Minus the explosiveness and experience, I can say almost everything I said about Brown above and apply it to Tatum. He is a rookie and is going to have ups and downs in his first season in the NBA, but he also flashed his basketball I.Q. last night and is getting the start at power forward. The Bucks were a team last year that you could attack in the paint, and Tatum offers quickness and athleticism in the paint. He’s really more like a SF than a PF, but he’s going to start at the four. With no Heyward and Jae Crowder gone, the minutes are going to be there for Tatum and at his price, he can easily make value. I am certainly more confident in Brown after what he showed last night, but Tatum looks like a stud in the making and can only get better. Oh, did I mention he had a double-double in his first career game?
Dennis Smith, Jr. – Dallas Mavericks – PG/SG – $6,800
Analysis: Yes, lots of young guys on this list today. But as a Mavs fan, this is a guy I am looking forward to watching this season. If you saw any preseason and/or summer league highlights, you know this guy is a man among boys. Mark Cuban has said they had to hold their breaths while the Knicks picked ahead of them in the draft, hoping that New York wouldn’t take Dennis Smith. They all know he has whatever “It” is and I can’t wait. The Mavs draw the rebuilding Atlanta Hawks, so while the Mavs aren’t going to be a top 4 or 5 seed contender this season, there is a risk of a blowout here I think. The Mavs don’t have a bunch of new veterans coming in, this is a team with 11 of its 15 players from last season returning and Dennis Smith is the only guy that has to find his place and his role, though that should be easily identified 5-6 minutes into this one. I am not missing the boat on him while his price is this depressed.
Dirk Nowitzki – PF – Dallas Mavericks – $5,200
Analysis: A la Larry Fitzgerald, this is the time we want to hop on the Dirk Nowitzki shares. It’s the season opener, he hasn’t play a ton of preseason minutes and while he’s getting up there in age, he’s still got fresh legs to start the season. Sure, he’s not as quick, but he’s still got that beautiful shot and is still 7 feet tall. I don’t see anyone really matching his size on the Hawks tonight. John Collins can make a case, but he’s a rookie and is going to have players like Nerlens Noel to deal with. No one can cover Dirk’s shot and I can easily see him playing 28-30 minutes if this stays close. He’s a tournament-only play due to the matchup, but he could be the very reason why this game gets out of hand.
DeJounte Murray – PG – San Antonio Spurs – $4,100
Analysis: No Tony Park, no Kawhi Leonard, no Patty Mills, so it’s clearly the DeJounte Murray show…finally. The Spurs take on the Minnesota Timberwolves’ who look to be all in right now with the acquisition of Jimmy Buckets Butler. The Spurs, despite the players they will be missing, will still be a tough out. We could get “Popped” in this game should Murray struggle early on, but Murray looks to be one of the top value plays on the board tonight. He and Jaylen Brown look like my favorites for today.
Jusuf Nurkic – C – Portland Trail Blazers – $7,500
Analysis: For me, this is the most egregious pricing error of the slate and I am all in. Nurkic showed last year that he is a perfect fit for the Blazers, who also will be without C.J. McCollum and are on the road in an even more up-pace game against the Suns. I don’t know if it’s because he would be matched with Tyson Chandler or what, but this seems like a huge mistake. Maybe I am biased because Nurkic was my boy last year after being moved to Portland, but this guy can do it all. Many are going to want to play Jokic for obvious reasons, but Nurkic is my guy at center tonight and checks all the boxes for how he will accrue fantasy points.
Marquese Chriss – PF/C – Phoenix Suns – $5,100
Analysis: Chriss flashes a unique ability of size and athleticism as a power forward. He had some struggles last year, but the front court for the Suns’ was kind of crowded. Now some younger talent has come in and some veterans have exited, paving the way for Chriss to see a solid boost in minutes and usage moving forward. Chriss improved his offensive game as the season went on and even flashed some improved defensive skills (ended the season blocking 2 shots per game over his last 22). While Bledsoe, Booker and Warren may see a lot of shots, a lot of shots will also miss and Chriss will be there to clean it up and rebound the ball when needed. He’s super cheap and needs about 25 fantasy points to pay off tonight in cash games, I mean, receiving fantasy points from Marquese is about as easy as opening a present at Chriss-mas…oh yes, I went there.
