With one game in the books, the 2019 NFL season is underway. Which means it is time to take a deep dive into the 12-game Sunday main slate with my NFL Hot Sheet article. The article will take a similar form to how it finished in 2018 with more of a bullet-point format that is easier to read (and write) while still supplying a game-by-game breakdown of the slate, including my “Hot Picks” for each game. I also summarize the slate into my Top Plays at each position for DFS (DraftKings focused but good for any site), and round it out with my Best Bets for the week.
Here is a refresher on my process for creating the Hot Sheet…
I analyze each game and provide a write-up of how I expect each game to play out based on game script using the ratings I have compiled for each position. The charts below show the rating for each position per team based on each team’s own offensive performance and their opponent’s defensive performance for a variety of factors over the season and last five weeks (Note that the first few weeks will still rely on last season’s stats):
- Vegas line and total
- Team pace (plays)
- Overall play distribution
- Red Zone and Inside 10 play distribution
- Yards per attempt (passing, receiving, rushing)
- TD per attempt (passing, receiving, rushing)
- DVOA ratings from FootballOutsiders
- Sacks, turnovers and defensive touchdowns
All of these stats and rankings are compiled, weighted and averaged to come up with a single “rating” for each team by position for this week. Numbers in red are “hot” indicating a good matchup.
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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.
So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…