Another full 16-game week as we head into the final four weeks of the season. There are plenty of intriguing matchups this week including a variety of divisional clashes. It looks like the week of the cheap RB from a DFS perspective as there are numerous options that have opened up already this week. I’m also putting out a hopefully lucky 13 bets to help heal my under 50% success rate so far this season.
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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.
So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans
- Leonard Fournette returns from one-game suspension
- DJ Chark is out
Running Game (22nd): Fournette will resume as the workhorse back for the Jaguars after coming off his one-game suspension. The week off should make him fresh for the Thursday night matchup against the Titans who have allowed 4.86 YPC (23rd) and 0.8 rushing TDs (19th) per game over the last five weeks to RBs. Meanwhile, Fournette has averaged 23 carries for 81 yards while scoring four rushing TDs over his last three games.
Passing Game (20th): Cody Kessler will remain under center for the Jaguars but only threw for 150 yards last week without a TD. He’ll face a Titans pass defense that has good raw numbers on the year allowing just 234 passing yards (4th) and 1.33 TD passes (3rd) per game despite a 23rd DVOA ranking. Some regression may be coming for the Titans pass defense, but it won’t be this week.
Top Targets: Dede Westbrook led the Jaguars WRs in targets last week and the Titans rank 32nd DVOA against #1 WRs this season. Meanwhile, Fournette has 10 targets over his last three games and T.J. Yeldon saw a team-high eight targets last week, so both of them could get some check downs from Kessler.
- Leonard Fournette rushing
- Cody Kessler to Dede Westbrook
Running Game (30th): The Jaguars run defense ranks 7th DVOA and has allowed just 3.54 YPC (6th) and no rushing TDs (1st) to RBs over the last five weeks. With a split backfield between Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry, neither is a strong play on the ground.
Passing Game (26th): Marcus Mariota has thrown for over 280 yards with 2 TD passes in each of the last two games but faces a good Jaguars pass defense on Thursday that just shutout Andrew Luck and ranks 6th DVOA. They have also allowed the fewest TD passes this season.
Top Targets: Mariota will need to leverage his TEs to help move the ball this week as the Jaguars have allowed 6.25 receptions (27th) for 66 yards (25th) and 1.0 TDs (30th) to TEs over the last five weeks. Their 11th DVOA ranking to the position is also their worst rank of all the receiving options. So, look for the combo of Jonnu Smith and Anthony Firkser to both be involved while WR Corey Davis competes with Jalen Ramsey.
- Marcus Mariota rushing
- Leonard Fournette (*)
- Dede Westbrook (*)
- Jaguars D/ST (*)
- Jonnu Smith (*)
- Anthony Firkser (*)