The NFL season is rolling along now as we enter Week 3. Week 3 is a tale of two types of games with four games chiming in with a Vegas total over 52 points and six games with a Vegas total of 42 points or fewer. Take a wild guess which games you’ll want to get a lot of your exposure to in DFS lineups and which games you’ll want to avoid except for the defenses for the most part.
My “Bets” struggled last week putting me at 6-6 for the season. I have 7 plays listed in this week’s article including the Jets +3 over the Browns on Thursday.
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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.
So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…
New York Jets @ Cleveland Browns
| Team | QB | RB | WR1 | WR2 | WR3 | TE | D | K | Vegas |
| New York Jets | 44 | 52 | 38 | 46 | 41 | 36 | 54 | 47 | 40 |
| Cleveland Browns | 42 | 48 | 36 | 41 | 36 | 47 | 61 | 42 | -3 |
The Jets are coming off a home loss in Miami and will stay on the road on a short week playing in Cleveland on Thursday night. The Jets passing game behind Sam Darnold has a decent ranking in the middle of the pack in yardage and TD passes and will face an equally mid-level Browns pass defense in yardage allowed and TD passes, however, they do carry an 8th DVOA ranking against the pass. The best way to attack the Browns pass defense this season is through the RB where they rank 30th DVOA against pass-catching backs which could set up Bilal Powell as a potential option. Meanwhile, look for WR Quincy Enunwa to continue to be the primary target and chew up a bunch of short receptions as the Browns have allowed 16 receptions per game (25th) to opposing WRs. The Jets running game should be solid as they rank 4th in rushing yards by RBs this season, while the Browns have ceded 99 rushing yards per game (25th). They should also do well in the red zone as both teams have averaged one rushing TD scored and allowed by RBs through two weeks, so that brings Isaiah Crowell, who is returning to face his former team, into the mix. Outside of the RBs and Enunwa, there is nothing to consider expect a long-shot revenge game spot for Terrelle Pryor if you’re feeling lucky.
The Browns almost worked their way into another tie or even a win in Week 2 against the Saints but kicking woes put an end to that. Tyrod Taylor and the Browns figure to have trouble moving the ball through the air on Thursday night against a good Jets pass defense that ranks 2nd DVOA this season and is in the top 10 across the board against opposing RB/WR/TE options. Jarvis Landry to once again monopolize the targets and has the best individual matchup working out of the slot. The ground game will see the most production coming from Taylor on QB scrambles/keepers as he averages the most yards per game on the ground for QB this season and the Jets rank 26th in QB rushing yards allowed this season. Carlos Hyde should once again be the primary ball carrier but could have a hard time generating much as the Jets have allowed just 3.39 YPC (7th) while the Browns have only produced 3.14 YPC (29th) by RBs this year. Maybe Hyde can punch one across the goal line to save his day for the third straight week but don’t bank on it.
Hot Picks:
- Isaiah Crowell (*)
- Bilal Powell (*)
- Quincy Enunwa (*)
- Jarvis Landry (*)
