We head into Week 4 and there are already two teams on bye (Redskins/Panthers). My NFL Hot Sheet DFS plays haven’t graded out as well as I had hoped so far this season but as we continue to get more data for this season, the stronger the Hot Sheet will get.
It should be an interesting week with two DFS-friendly teams (Vikings/Rams) playing each other on Thursday night and Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs on Monday night, that is a lot of the fantasy stars from the first few weeks who are not available on the Sunday main slate. Don’t worry there are still plenty of “hot” plays available.
My bets for last week produced a decent 4-3 (57.1%) record putting me at 10-9 (52.6%) for the season.
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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.
So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…
Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Rams
|Los Angeles Rams||46||57||34||41||26||45||52||-7|
The Vikings have a short week coming off one of the biggest stinkers in NFL history after they were shellacked by the Bills. They travel to LA to face the 3-0 Rams, but it could be a good bounce-back spot for the Vikings as the Rams will likely be without both of their starting cornerbacks. So, despite a 2nd DVOA ranking against the pass this season, look for Kirk Cousins and company to find some success in the passing game. Of course, the primary targets will continue to be their top two WRs, Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs, with Digg, in particular, getting a more favorable matchup due to the injuries to the Rams corners. Kyle Rudolph could also be an option as the Rams have allowed 89 yards per game (29th) to TEs this season. The Vikings running game could be tricky depending on the availability of Dalvin Cook who looks like a game-time decision. The Rams do allow 4.93 YPC (28th) to opposing RBs this season.Even if he plays, his snap count and touches are at risk, especially if the Vikings fall behind as a touchdown underdog. Probably not worth the chance outside of a GPP or Showdown lineup.
The undefeated Rams have won three straight games by double-digits but will face their toughest test in Week 4 with the Vikings coming to town. The Vikings also have the best defense that the Rams have faced as they rank 9th DVOA against the pass. Jared Goff should have the most success throwing to RB Todd Gurley as the Vikings rank 29th DVOA against pass-catching backs. Of the WR trio, look for Cooper Kupp in the slot and Robert Woods lining up away from Xavier Rhodes to have the best matchups. The Vikings also have solid run defense allowing just 3.65 YPC (10th) to opposing backs while not allowing a rushing TD to a RB yet this season. Gurley gets enough volume to still be viable, especially with his involvement in the passing game.
- Kirk Cousins (*)
- Adam Thielen (*)
- Stefon Diggs (**)
- Kyle Rudolph (*)
- Todd Gurley (**)
- Cooper Kupp (*)
- Robert Woods (*)