Bring on Week 5! Last week started out well, things were looking good and then Alvin Kamara went crazy in the second half against the Giants and I had far too little exposure to him throughout my lineups. Sure, there were some good calls also like Andrew Luck, who I didn’t see much traction on around the industry, but I was completely sold on last week and he produced with the second highest DK score among QBs.
Of course, the great thing about NFL DFS is you can immediately move on to the next week where there is a new puzzle to put together. This week has two teams on bye (Bears/Bucs) which still gives us plenty of options to choose from so let’s get it.
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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.
So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…
Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots
|New England Patriots||57||59||66||69||39||62||57||-10.5|
The Colts are coming off a tough overtime loss to the Texans and now must go on the road in a short week to face the Patriots. As if the Colts didn’t have enough to worry about they will also be without numerous of their key offensive players with T.Y. Hilton, Marlon Mack and Jack Doyle ruled out. The Patriots have had an average pass defense so far this season allowing just 237.5 passing yards (8th) and 2.0 TD passes (20th) per game this season with a 17th DVOA against the pass. Andrew Luck should have some success passing the ball but to who is the big question. Eric Ebron has received double-digit targets in two straight weeks, but the Patriots rank 2nd DVOA against the TE, so look for the targets to be more spread out amongst the remaining WRs options and RB Nyheim Hines, who has two receiving TDs last week and faces a Patriots defense that ranks 27th DVOA against pass-catching RBs. The Colts should be able to gain some yardage on the ground with Hines and Jordan Wilkins as the Patriots allow 4.55 YPC (25th) to opposing RBs but the chances of a rushing score are low.
The Patriots got back on track last week with a blowout win over the Dolphins and will be at home for the second straight game on a short week against the Colts. The Patriots welcome Julian Edelman back into the fold but could be without Rob Gronkowski due to injury. Regardless of who is on the field catching passes from Tom Brady, he should have some success moving the ball through the air as the Colts have allowed 291 passing yards (22nd) per game, however, they have been stingy in the red zone allowing just 1.3 TD passes (4th) per contest this season. The best path to success through the air should be to RB James White out of the backfield as the Colts have allowed 8.6 receptions for 60.3 yards (27th) to opposing backs this season. Also, look for Edelman to have an immediate connection with Brady working out of the slot with potentially a big play to Josh Gordon. The running game will be led by rookie Sony Michel but could have limited success as the Colts rank 8th DVOA against the run and are allowing just 3.62 YPC (10th) to opposing RBs.
- Nyheim Hines (*)
- Tom Brady (**)
- James White (*)
- Julian Edelman (**)
- Josh Gordon (*)