We have reached the point in the season where all of the data for the NFL Hot Sheet is coming from this year’s results now that we have five weeks in the books. Week 6 offers a lot of intrigue, especially in the Primetime Matchups, so it might be a week to play the full slate to get exposure to teams like the Eagles, Chiefs, Patriots and Packers. My DFS plays will still focus in on the 12-game Sunday main slate. Buckle up, I have a feeling this week is going to be a wild one!
I also have a 10-pack of potential Bets that I am looking at for Week 6.
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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.
So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants
|New York Giants||48||36||52||77||55||43||47||44|
The Eagles are coming off a home loss the Vikings and will travel to face the Giants on a short week. The Giants pass defense has been solid this season allowing just 237 yards (5th) and 1.2 TD passes (3rd) per game but could have some regression on the way as they rank 22nd DVOA against the pass. The Eagles passing attack has improved since Carson Wentz returned as he has topped 300 yards and two scores in back-to-back weeks. Top targets on Thursday for Wentz should be WR Alshon Jeffrey who has eight or more targets in both of his games this season and has a beatable matchup against shadow coverage from Janoris Jenkins as the Giants rank 27th DVOA against opposing #1 WRs this year. Zach Ertz will get his share of looks but has a reasonable difficult matchup against a Giants defense that hasn’t allowed a TE touchdown this season and ranks 7th DVOA against the position. The Eagles running game will be led by the combo of Wendell Smallwood and Corey Clement with Jay Ajayi out for the season and Darren Sproles still injured. Both backs should find success against the 25th DVOA ranked run defense that has allowed league average production in yardage and rushing scores.
The Giants dropped to 1-4 with a heartbreaking loss to the Panthers on a last second 63-yard FG but will try to regroup quickly at home against the Eagles. The Eagles have a funnel defense that allows plenty of production from opposing passing games with 292 yards (25th) per game but is better in the red zone as they give up just 1.6 TD passes (11th) per game. The best way for Eli Manning to exploit the Eagles is through the WR position where they just happen to have two strong options with Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard who are both viable DFS plays. Saquon Barkley could get bottled up this week against the Eagles 6th ranked DVOA run defense that has allowed a season-low 42 rushing yards and just one rushing score on the year. The Giants could also be careful with Barkley who appears to have avoided a big injury on his final score last week.
- Wendell Smallwood (**)
- Corey Clement (*)
- Alshon Jeffery (*)
- Eli Manning (*)
- Odell Beckham Jr. (**)
- Sterling Shepard (**)