We clear the halfway point of the NFL season this week as we enter Week 9. While there are quite a few games that are expected to be close this week there are two games that stand alone with big Vegas point totals on the Sunday main slate with the Rams/Saints and Bucs/Panthers. But first, let’s kickoff the week with a barnburner in San Fran between two one-win teams (give me the Raiders plus the points). Now, that’s entertainment!
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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.
So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…
Oakland Raiders @ San Francisco 49ers
| Team | QB | RB | WR1 | WR2 | WR3 | TE | D | Vegas |
| Oakland Raiders | 55 | 47 | 51 | 67 | 71 | 58 | 54 | 46 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 56 | 67 | 30 | 22 | 59 | 67 | 41 | -2.5 |
The Raiders lost their third consecutive game last week with a loss to the Colts. They play on a short week against the 49ers in San Francisco in Week 9. Derek Carr threw three TD passes last week and could have similar success this week as the 49ers have allowed 2.3 TD passes (28th) per game and the Raiders have the 2nd highest pass ratio inside the 10 yard line this year. Look for the inside route receivers like Jordy Nelson and Seth Roberts to have solid games as the 49ers rank 25th and 28th respectively against #2 and #3 WRs this year. Meanwhile, TE Jared Cook continues to be heavily involved in the offense and has a beatable matchup. On the ground, Doug Martin looked spry in his first start averaging 5.5 YPC in place of the injured Marshawn Lynch. Short weeks tend to favor the running game and if the Raiders can get a lead it could be a strong game for Martin against the 49ers 20th DVOA ranked run defense.
The 49ers dropped their sixth straight game last week in a loss to the Cardinals and will battle another one-win team, the Raiders, at home this week. The big question for the 49ers is if C.J. Beathard will be able to play after missing practice all week. He is considered a game-time decision. If Beathard doesn’t play then Nick Mullens will get the start. If Beathard sits out then avoid all 49ers pass catchers, but if he does play then TE George Kittle becomes a very strong option as the Raiders ranked dead last DVOA against opposing TEs this season. Other than Kittle the only other pass catcher that could be worth a flier is Marquise Goodwin who has the best individual matchup at WR. The 49ers running game is where they should do most of their work against a Cardinals run defense that ranks 26th DVOA and has given up 5.19 YPC (28th) and 1.5 rushing TDs (32nd) per game over the last five weeks. Matt Breida figures to get the bulk of the carries if his ankle injury allows him to play.
Hot Picks:
- Derek Carr (*)
- Doug Martin (*)
- Jared Cook (*)
- George Kittle (**) – if Beathard plays
- Matt Breida (**)
