NFL Value Index – Week 1

It’s baaaaaack!!!!

Yes, football is back in our lives once again. Week 1 of the 2017 NFL season kicked off Thursday night and this Sunday we get our first crack at winning some big prize pools on DraftKings, FanDuel, FantasyDraft, etc.

For followers of the Value Index series, you might’ve realized that I bowed out a bit early at the end of our baseball coverage. I started back to work in a new position in education and things got really super crazy and busy. I was working all day and having to do work at night to help keep our ship afloat.

The chaos has died down some, but I just needed to step away from writing baseball so I could apply my focus on my career breadwinner.

But football season is now here and having to write once a week instead of 5 times per week is a little easier to manage during this busy stretch of work I am encountering.

A few things about this year’s Index that I want to incorporate.

1. Similar to what I started doing after the MLB All-Star break, I will provide you with my top 5 rankings at each position based on matchups, usage, targets, touches, etc. But price will not be factored. For example, I may rank David Johnson No. 1 in my rankings, but he may not be my official pick because I might like another guy based on price a little bit more. But as far as talent, matchup, etc, DJ might clearly the top option on the board when you don’t factor in DFS pricing. Think of it as rankings for a season-long league, but try to incorporate it into DFS production.
2. I want to provide my top 5 stacks. I did this for baseball, but in overall team form. For this part of the Index, I will provide 2 to 4 players to explain my stack. For example, if I like Aaron Rodgers, Ty Montgomery and Jordy Nelson vs. team X, then that’s how I will present it each week.
3. I also will lay down the chalk. Throughout the week, I am listening, reading and researching and while our consensus articles do a great job of projecting ownership, I want to provide you all, based on chatter (podcasts, Twitter, Game Breakdowns, etc.) that I dive into and share who I feel will be chalky options in all formats.
4. At the end of this article, I will provide my favorite plays of the week based on the value I expect in return. These will be plays that I have a lot of exposure to as of Thursday nights, when this article publishes. I will be looking for players who I feel can return 4x their salary or better.

Before we get to all of this week’s content, remember there are 12 games this week now due to incoming Hurricane Irma. Tampa Bay and Miami have postponed their Week 1 game and will now play Week 11 when both were scheduled to have their bye week.

RANKINGS

Quarterback

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Ben Roethlisberger
3. Derek Carr
4. Carson Palmer
5. Matt Ryan

Running Back

1. David Johnson
2. Le’Veon Bell
3. LeSean McCoy
4. Bilal Powell
5. Christian McCaffrey

Wide Receivers

1. Antonio Brown
2. Julio Jones
3. Amari Cooper
4. Jordy Nelson
5. Michael Crabtree

Tight Ends

1. Delanie Walker
2. Zach Ertz
3. Jordan Reed
4. Greg Olsen
5. Jason Witten

Defense/Special Teams

1. Houston Texans
2. Los Angeles Rams
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Atlanta Falcons
5. Green Bay Packers

Top Stacks

1. Derek Carr/Amari Cooper/Michael Crabtree
2. Carson Palmer/David Johnson
3. Ben Roethlisberger/Le’Veon Bell/Antonio Brown/Martavis Bryant
4. Tyrod Taylor/LeSean McCoy
5. Marcus Mariota/Eric Decker/Delanie Walker

Chalk City

Quarterback – Carson Palmer, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Derek Carr

Running back – David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey, LeSean McCoy

Wide Receivers – Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Kendall Wright, Terrelle Pryor, Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, Larry Fitzgerald

Tight Ends – Delanie Walker, Zach Ertz, Greg Olsen, Jordan Reed

Defense/Special Teams – Houston Texans, Pittsburgh Steelers, Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills

Aaron Rodgers – QB – Green Bay Packers – $7,000

Analysis: So QB is supposed to be a predictable position, and I am all about taking QBs who have home/road splits that favor their production. For Aaron Rodgers, he’s money at home. Last year, he also was money on the road. But at home in Lambeau is where A-Rod really shines. This price for Rodgers is ridiculous for the upside Rodgers brings to the table and the usage on offense. He’s THE guy for Green Bay. There’s not a David Johnson or Le’Veon Bell to eat up touches or usage, there’s not a 3-down back that will take carries. There is only Aaron Rodgers and Rodgers will throw the ball 50 times to get the job done, even if it’s against Seattle, the Packers’ Week 1 opponent. At Lambeau last season, Rodgers had 26 TDs and only 4 INT. He has all his weapons back, he has Ty Montgomery who can be a pass-catching RB in this game with the Seattle run D getting a huge boost with the addition of Sheldon Richardson and he’s got a more reliable and athletic tight end in Martellus Bennett at his disposal. In this matchup last year, Rodgers was 18-for-23 for 246 yards and 3 TDs and priced at only $6,400! That game got out of hand early thanks to 5 Russell Wilson INTs, but if the 51-point O/U is pointing us in the right direction and this game is competitive until the end, then Rodgers could be in for a much bigger game this time around.

Carson Palmer – QB – Arizona Cardinals – $6,000

Analysis: It’s taken me awhile to get on board Carson Palmer this week. He’s not at home and his age and health are concerning. But this is Week 1 and the grind of a 17-week season takes its toll on older players later in the season (see Larry Fitzgerald, etc.). Palmer is fresh and he’s getting to play in a dome this week, a setting where Palmer has thrived most of his career, home or not. The Lions have solid corners defending the boundaries, but they and were one of the worst teams in defending pass-catching RBs and slot receivers. The Cardinals have arguably the best pass-catching, ground-and-pound RB in David Johnson and a fresh Larry Fitzgerald running around freely in the slot. The Lions allowed 246 passing yards per game and allowed nearly 20 points per game to opposing offenses. Palmer might struggle with downfield passes, but he will have David Johnson and Fitzgerald has safety nets. Johnson can easily break one for a big gain and a touchdown and Fitz will be a red zone target.

Christian McCaffrey – RB – Carolina Panthers – $5,400

Analysis: I already hate to recommend McCaffrey because he’s going to be ultra chalk this week. But he rightfully should be chalky. Not only did he flash his upside in the preseason and we’ve seen what he can do in college, but he’s getting to face a defense in rebuilding mode despite some savvy, stud linebackers returning to the team. McCaffrey is such a playmaker that it’s been reported he has his own playbook. Jonathan Stewart will still get work and may see goalline carries, but the Panthers and Cam Newton know what kind of player they have and they will need him to get as many touches as possible. We do have to keep in mind that he’s a rookie, playing on the road and in his first game, but his price and upside too mouthwatering to pass up against the San Francisco 49ers.