Monday night brings a battle between the Browns and the Jets. With both teams coming off a loss and the Jets QB Sam Darnold out, the game has tilted toward the Browns as almost a touchdown favorite on the road. In cash games, it is best to lean into the turn and load up on Browns.
My Showdown slate experiment continues to be just that, an experiment. After playing four showdown slates I have cashed in Double-Ups twice and min-cashed in single-entry GPPs twice, but head-to-head has suffered from just a 34.5% win rate.
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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.
Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets
|New York Jets||48||56||38||32||24||54||65||67||45|
- Nick Chubb – Using Chubb as King seems like a near-lock. As mentioned above, the Browns are a sizeable road favorite which should play into the Browns running game in the second half. The Browns will be without backup RB Dontrell Hilliard which should further increase Chubb’s touches at the goal line and passing game. Meanwhile, the Jets run defense ranked 27th DVOA in Week 1 while giving up 6.0 YPC (27th).
- Baker Mayfield – Mayfield struggled in Week 1, but I expect a better performance from him on Monday night. With Darnold out, Mayfield is the primary QB to get into your lineup
- Odell Beckham Jr. – Make sure you “watch” out for Beckham who should have plenty of “time” to get open against the Jets secondary who allowed John Brown to get loose for seven receptions and 123 yards and a score in Week 1. Look for Beckham to be more productive than last week (7-71-0) on the 10+ targets he gets on Monday night.
- Ty Montgomery – Montgomery only got two touches in Week 1, but with Le’Veon Bell a little nicked up heading into Monday’s game, Montgomery should get a little more work. Montgomery could also benefit if the Jets fall behind as the Jets will likely look to rest Bell as Montgomery is more than capable in the passing game for the inevitable check-downs that Trevor Siemian will throw.
I don’t have a good feel for a GPP lineup for this game. I think the only pivot would be to just get different with which Browns you roster. Maybe put Mayfield in the King slot and then get his passing game targets not named Beckham or Chubb. Also watch the status of Rashard Higgins to use either him or his likely replacement, Damion Ratley.
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