Hard to believe we are already to Week 10 of the NFL season. This week’s projections had a nice flow to them as there are not as many questionable situations due to injuries or coaching changes. One thing I noticed about this week was that it was harder to find significantly increased opportunities for the passing games. I only listed three quarterbacks with an increased opportunity of two or three pluses. This might be the week to go with a stud quarterback such as Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees who will seldom see a big increased opportunity because their baseline is so high to begin with. Something to keep in mind as you build your lineups this week.
Here is the Week 10 projections and analysis…
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Buffalo Bills | 63 | 33 | 52.4% | 209 | 1.4 | 30 | 47.6% | 125 | 0.8 | 20.8 |
| New York Jets | 67 | 37 | 55.2% | 238 | 1.7 | 30 | 44.8% | 114 | 1.0 | 23.0 |
Look for the Bills to execute their typical run heavy game plan. The passing game should fall in line with their typical yardage with most likely one touchdown pass. The Bills running game should be less effective than normal with a decrease in yardage and decreased chance for any more than one touchdown on the ground. The Bills run over 67% of the time from inside the 10 yard line.
The Jets project to have their typical play distribution. The passing game will see a decrease in passing yards with a slightly decreased chance for two touchdown passes. The running game should see their typical level of production in yardage with the likelihood of one rushing touchdown. The Jets have an even 50/50 split between the pass and run on plays in the red zone this season.
Increased Opportunities:
- None, I’ll take the defenses in this game with a slight edge to the Jets defense (+)
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Detroit Lions | 66 | 48 | 72.7% | 304 | 1.7 | 18 | 27.3% | 73 | 0.4 | 18.4 |
| Green Bay Packers | 63 | 34 | 54.0% | 257 | 2.1 | 29 | 46.0% | 133 | 1.2 | 28.5 |
Look for the Lions to pass even more often than their already pass heavy play distribution as they try to keep up with the Packers. With the increased attempts, the passing game should throw for slightly more yardage than normal with their typical opportunity for two touchdown passes. The running game should fall in line with their typical yardage and limited chance for a rushing score. The Lions pass over 72% of the time in the red zone.
The Packers project to have a similar play distribution to their baseline. The passing game projects to throw for slightly more yardage than normal with a slightly reduced opportunity for any more than two touchdown passes. The running game should see an increase in both yardage and their opportunity for at least one touchdown on the ground. The Packers pass over 60% of the time in the red zone.
Increased Opportunities:
- James Starks – all signs point to Starks getting the lead RB role in Green Bay this week (++)
Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Dallas Cowboys | 65 | 36 | 55.4% | 232 | 1.7 | 29 | 44.6% | 116 | 0.7 | 21.9 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 63 | 33 | 52.4% | 234 | 1.2 | 30 | 47.6% | 132 | 1.0 | 21.8 |
The Cowboys project to execute their typical play distribution. The passing game should get their typical level of passing yards, but see a significantly increased likelihood for two touchdown passes. The running game projects to have a slight decrease in yardage with their typical opportunity for one rushing touchdown.
The Buccaneers will likely have their normal play distribution in what is expected to be a close game. The passing game should fall in line with their typical level of output both from a yardage and likelihood for one touchdown pass. The running game should produce their typical level of yardage, but will have an increased likelihood of a rushing touchdown. The Buccaneers have been going to the ground game more often recently in the red zone.
Increased Opportunities:
- Matt Cassel chance for 2nd TD pass (++)
- Doug Martin likelihood for a rushing TD (++)
Carolina Panthers @ Tennessee Titans
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Carolina Panthers | 64 | 31 | 48.4% | 214 | 1.7 | 33 | 51.6% | 137 | 1.1 | 24.2 |
| Tennessee Titans | 69 | 42 | 60.9% | 249 | 1.4 | 27 | 39.1% | 111 | 0.7 | 19.6 |
The Panthers project to continue to execute their run heavy play distribution this week. The passing game should see a slight decrease in yardage with their typical opportunity for two touchdown passes. The ground attack projects to match their typical level of production in yardage and likelihood for a rushing touchdown. The Panthers have run the ball over 61% of the time in the red zone this season.
The Titans project to execute their typical play distribution. The passing game should be less effective than normal with a decrease in yardage and decreased chance for more than one touchdown pass. The running game could see a slight increase in yardage and their opportunity for a rushing touchdown.
Increased Opportunities:
- None, give me the Panthers defense (+)
Chicago Bears @ St. Louis Rams
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Chicago Bears | 67 | 38 | 56.7% | 234 | 0.9 | 29 | 43.3% | 109 | 0.7 | 17.9 |
| St. Louis Rams | 60 | 29 | 48.3% | 205 | 1.4 | 31 | 51.7% | 163 | 0.8 | 22.5 |
The Bears are projected to run their typical play distribution. The passing game should see a decrease in passing yards and a significant decrease in their chance for any more than one touchdown pass. The running should perform close to their typical level of production in yardage with their usual opportunity for a rushing touchdown. The Bears pass just over 51% of the time from inside the 10 yard line.
Look for the Rams to run even more often than usual this week. The extra rushing attempts will allow the running game to see a significant increase in rushing yards with their typical opportunity for a rushing score. The passing game projects for slightly more yardage than normal with an increased likelihood for one touchdown pass. The Rams run over 63% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
Increased Opportunities:
- Todd Gurley (++)
- Nick Foles and the Rams passing game (Tavon Austin) (+)
New Orleans Saints @ Washington Redskins
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD |
| New Orleans Saints | 67 | 42 | 62.7% | 323 | 2.0 | 25 | 37.3% | 110 | 0.9 |
| Washington Redskins | 65 | 40 | 61.5% | 287 | 2.1 | 25 | 38.5% | 108 | 0.7 |
Look for the Saints to execute their typical play distribution, but run fewer plays than normal. The passing game should see a slight decrease in passing yards with their typical likelihood for multiple touchdown passes. The running game should see an increase in yardage with a decreased opportunity for any more than one rushing touchdown. The Saints run over 54% of the time from inside the 10 yard line.
The Redskins project to have their typical play distribution. The passing game should see a significant increase in both yardage and their opportunity for at least two touchdown passes. The running game is projected for a slight increase in yardage with their typical opportunity for a rushing score. The Redskins have passed almost 60% of the time in the red zone this season.
Increased Opportunities:
- Kirk Cousins and the Redskins passing game (Jordan Reed) (+++)
Miami Dolphins @ Philadelphia Eagles
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Miami Dolphins | 66 | 44 | 66.7% | 304 | 1.8 | 22 | 33.3% | 103 | 0.6 | 20.1 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 69 | 39 | 56.5% | 278 | 1.8 | 30 | 43.5% | 140 | 1.1 | 25.2 |
The Dolphins project to run more plays than usual and pass slightly more often than normal this week. The passing game should be effective with a slight increase in yardage and their opportunity for two touchdown passes. The running game should produce about the same yardage as normal, but will have a decreased opportunity for a rushing score. The Dolphins have passed over 62% in the red zone this season, although that number has been coming down recently.
Look for the Eagles to run the ball more often than normal this week. The increased carries should result in a slight increase in rushing yardage with their typical likelihood for a rushing touchdown. The passing game should see an increase in passing yards and their opportunity for two touchdown passes. The Eagles pass over 53% of the time in the red zone.
Increased Opportunities:
- Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins passing game (Rishard Matthews) (+)
- Sam Bradford and the Eagles passing game (Jordan Matthews) (++)
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Cleveland Browns | 66 | 42 | 63.6% | 276 | 1.8 | 24 | 36.4% | 88 | 0.3 | 18.7 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 65 | 35 | 53.8% | 250 | 1.4 | 30 | 46.2% | 142 | 1.1 | 23.4 |
The projection for the Browns is assuming that Josh McCown is able to play this week. If Johnny Manziel starts instead then decrease the number of passing attempts, yards, and touchdown opportunity by about one-third. The Browns project to execute their typical play distribution. The passing game should perform at their typical level for yardage with a slightly increased likelihood for two touchdown passes. The running game should perform close to their typical limited level of production. The Browns have passed on 62% of their plays in the red zone this season.
The Steelers are expected to have Landry Jones at quarterback this week. Look for the Steelers to run the ball more often than normal. The increased rushing attempts will allow the running game to see a slight increase in rushing yards and likelihood for at least one rushing touchdown. The Steelers have run the ball over 58% of the time inside the 10 yard line, which I expect to continue this week with Jones at quarterback.
Increased Opportunities:
- DeAngelo Williams (the numbers only say a slight increase, but I expect more) (++)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore Ravens
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 67 | 43 | 64.2% | 291 | 2.2 | 24 | 35.8% | 91 | 0.3 | 22.5 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 69 | 42 | 60.9% | 294 | 1.7 | 27 | 39.1% | 101 | 1.0 | 25.0 |
The Jaguars are projected for their typical pass-oriented play distribution. The passing game should see a slight increase in passing yards and their opportunity for at least two touchdown passes. The running game will see their typical yardage and low chance for a rushing score. The Jaguars have passed 60% of the time from inside the 10 yard line this season.
Look for the Ravens to try to run the ball more often than usual this week. Despite fewer attempts, the Ravens passing game should be effective with an increase in passing yards and likelihood for two touchdown passes. The running game will meet their typical level of production in yardage and likelihood for one rushing touchdown. The Ravens have passed over 60% of their plays in the red zone this season.
Increased Opportunities:
- Blake Bortles and the Jaguars passing game (Allen Robinson) (+)
- Joe Flacco and the Ravens passing game (Kamar Aiken or maybe Justin Forsett out of the backfield) (+)
Minnesota Vikings @ Oakland Raiders
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Minnesota Vikings | 68 | 36 | 52.9% | 230 | 1.1 | 32 | 47.1% | 129 | 0.9 | 21.4 |
| Oakland Raiders | 63 | 39 | 61.9% | 266 | 2.0 | 24 | 38.1% | 112 | 0.6 | 22.7 |
The projection is based on Teddy Bridgewater playing, although if it is Shaun Hill I wouldn’t expect much difference in the Vikings play distribution. The Vikings are projected for more plays than normal with a slight lean more to the passing game than normal. The passing game should see an increase in yardage and their likelihood for one touchdown pass. The running game should fall in line with their typical production for both yardage and likelihood for a rushing score. The Vikings run the ball over 64% of the time from inside the 10 yard line.
The Raiders are projected to execute their typical play distribution. The passing game should finish close to their normal passing yardage, but will have a decreased opportunity for any more than two touchdown passes. The running game should perform in line with their typical yardage with a chance for a rushing score. The Raiders have run the ball 52% of the time from inside the 10 yard line.
Increased Opportunities:
- Teddy Bridgewater and the passing game (+)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 65 | 39 | 60.0% | 217 | 1.0 | 26 | 40.0% | 103 | 1.0 | 18.6 |
| Denver Broncos | 65 | 40 | 61.5% | 284 | 1.7 | 25 | 38.5% | 103 | 0.6 | 22.2 |
The Chiefs project to run their typical play distribution. The passing game will see a decrease in production with less passing yards and likely only one touchdown pass. The running game will also see a decrease in yardage with one touchdown on the ground. The Chiefs run over 56% of the time from inside the 10 yard line.
The Broncos will run the ball slightly more often than usual. The passing game will see an increase in yardage and their opportunity for two touchdown passes. The running game will see a small uptick in yardage with their typical opportunity for a rushing score. The Broncos pass over 58% of the time in the red zone.
Increased Opportunities:
- Peyton Manning and the Broncos passing game (Demaryius Thomas) (+)
- Broncos Defense (+)
New England Patriots @ New York Giants
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| New England Patriots | 69 | 44 | 63.8% | 347 | 2.6 | 25 | 36.2% | 108 | 0.8 | 29.9 |
| New York Giants | 65 | 41 | 63.1% | 277 | 2.1 | 24 | 36.9% | 104 | 0.4 | 22.2 |
The Patriots project to run a couple more plays than normal with their typical play distribution. The passing game will be effective with a slight increase in passing yards and opportunity for more than two touchdown passes. The Patriots have passed 61% of the time when they are in the red zone this season.
Look for the Giants to pass more often than usual this week. The passing game will see a slight increase in yardage and their opportunity for at least two touchdown passes. The running game projects to finish with their typical level of yardage and limited chance for a rushing touchdown. The Giants pass over 58% of the time in the red zone.
Increased Opportunities:
- Tom Brady and the Patriots passing game (Gut Call: Rob Gronkowski goes off, this is not the week to fade him) (+)
- Eli Manning and the Giants passing game (Odell Beckham Jr., I could also see Shane Vereen with a good day receiving) (+)
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Arizona Cardinals | 61 | 35 | 57.4% | 245 | 1.6 | 26 | 42.6% | 105 | 0.8 | 21.7 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 64 | 33 | 51.6% | 245 | 1.6 | 31 | 48.4% | 151 | 0.4 | 21.1 |
Look for the Cardinals to pass slightly more often this week than usual. The passing game projects to be less effective than normal with a decrease in both passing yards and their opportunity for multiple touchdown passes. The running game should also see a decrease in yardage and their opportunity for a rushing score. The Cardinals pass over 54% of the time in the red zone.
The Seahawks project to execute their typical run heavy play distribution. The passing game should see a slight increase in passing yards with an increased chance for two touchdown passes. The running game will also see a slight increase in rushing yards with a limited opportunity for a rushing touchdown. The Seahawks run the ball 52% of the time from inside the 10.
Increased Opportunities:
- Russell Wilson and the Seahawks passing game (+)
- I also like the Kickers in this one (+)
Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Houston Texans | 69 | 45 | 65.2% | 273 | 1.6 | 24 | 34.8% | 97 | 0.4 | 18.5 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 65 | 33 | 50.8% | 252 | 2.1 | 32 | 49.2% | 139 | 1.2 | 27.5 |
The Texans project to run fewer plays than normal with their typical pass-heavy play distribution. The passing game should see a decrease in yardage and their opportunity for two touchdown passes. The running game should see a small uptick in yardage, but a decreased opportunity for any rushing scores. The Texans pass over 61% of the time in the red zone.
Look for the Bengals to run the ball even more often than usual this week. The increased rushing attempts will result in an increase in rushing yardage with their typical opportunity for at least one rushing touchdown. The passing game will see decreased opportunities which will result in slightly less passing yards than normal and a decreased chance for any more than two touchdown passes.
Increase Opportunities:
- Bengals running game (I give the slight edge to Giovanni Bernard over Jeremy Hill due to Bernard’s pass-catching upside) (+)
Hopefully, this gives you some potential fantasy football sleepers and GPP plays for this week or gets you to think about some of your own favorite plays based on the data and analysis.
