I expect this week to be more “normal” compared to last week. This week there are a lot of evenly matched offensives and defenses, which resulted in a limited number of games with significantly increased opportunities. The two matchups that I think could turn into shootouts with some fantasy upside are the matchups between Oakland/Detroit and Dallas/Miami. Both games have a Vegas total on the higher end this week and both are close to pick’em games that could see both offenses moving up and down the field frequently.
So without further delay, let’s get to the numbers and analysis…
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Tennessee Titans | 66 | 40 | 60.6% | 258 | 1.7 | 26 | 39.4% | 92 | 0.7 | 20.8 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 64 | 40 | 62.5% | 268 | 2.2 | 24 | 37.5% | 103 | 0.4 | 21.9 |
Look for the Titans to run more plays than usual this week with their typical play distribution. The passing game should see a slight increase in passing yards and their chance for two touchdown passes. The running game should perform close to their typical rushing yardage with a slightly increased chance for a rushing score. The Titans pass over 60% of the time in the red zone.
The Jaguars are projected to run the ball slightly more often than normal. With a few extra attempts, the running game should see a very slight uptick in rushing yardage with a slightly increased chance for a rushing touchdown, although still unlikely. The passing game projects to perform close to their typical level of passing yards and likelihood for at least two passing touchdowns. The Jaguars pass over 60% of the time from inside the 10 yard line.
Increased Opportunities:
- Marcus Mariota and the Titans passing game (Delanie Walker) (+)
Washington Redskins @ Carolina Panthers
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Washington Redskins | 68 | 44 | 64.7% | 253 | 1.4 | 24 | 35.3% | 97 | 0.6 | 19.5 |
| Carolina Panthers | 64 | 30 | 46.9% | 222 | 1.6 | 34 | 53.1% | 161 | 1.0 | 25.0 |
Look for the Redskins to run more plays and to pass more frequently than normal this week. The passing game will produce their typical level of passing yardage with a reduced chance for any more than one touchdown pass. The running game projects for a decrease in rushing yards with their typical chance for one rushing score. The Redskins pass the ball 52% of the time from inside the 10 yard line.
The Panthers project to have their typical run heavy game plan. The passing game projects to fall in line with their typical level of yardage and chance for two touchdown passes. The running game will see an increase in rushing yardage with a decreased opportunity for any more than one touchdown on the ground. The Panthers run over 65% of the time from inside the 10 yard line.
Increased Opportunities:
- Jonathan Stewart rushing yards (+)
Oakland Raiders @ Detroit Lions
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Oakland Raiders | 66 | 42 | 63.6% | 280 | 2.2 | 24 | 36.4% | 99 | 0.8 | 26.0 |
| Detroit Lions | 68 | 47 | 69.1% | 320 | 2.0 | 21 | 30.9% | 88 | 0.4 | 22.2 |
The Raiders are projected to execute their typical play distribution. The passing game should produce their typical yardage with a slightly decreased chance for more than two touchdown passes. The running game projects to get their typical rushing yards, but will have an increased likelihood for a rushing touchdown. The Raiders pass over 55% of the time from inside the 10 yard line.
The Lions project to run more plays than normal with their typical play distribution. The passing game should see an increase in both yardage and their likelihood for two touchdown passes. The running game should see a slight increase in yardage and their chance for a rushing score. The Lions pass over 70% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
Increased Opportunities:
- Latavius Murray chance for rushing TD (++)
- Matthew Stafford and the Lions passing game (Golden Tate) (++)
Dallas Cowboys @ Miami Dolphins
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Dallas Cowboys | 67 | 37 | 55.2% | 272 | 1.6 | 30 | 44.8% | 136 | 0.8 | 22.2 |
| Miami Dolphins | 63 | 41 | 65.1% | 308 | 1.6 | 22 | 34.9% | 107 | 0.9 | 21.8 |
The Cowboys are expected to have Tony Romo back this week. Look for the Cowboys to have their typical play distribution but be more effective than they have been. The passing game should see a significant increase in yardage and their opportunity for two touchdown passes. The running game will also see an increase in production with slightly more yardage and likelihood for a rushing score. The Cowboys pass over 66% of the time in the red zone.
The Dolphins project to execute their typical play distribution. The passing game should see an increase in passing yards with their typical opportunity for two touchdown passes. The running game projects to run for their usual rushing yardage, but have an increased chance for a rushing score. The Dolphins have passed on 64% of their plays in the red zone this season.
Increased Opportunities:
- Tony Romo and the Cowboys passing game (Dez Bryant) (++)
- Darren McFadden (+)
- Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins passing game (Rishard Matthews) (+)
- Lamar Miller chance for rushing TD (+)
Indianapolis Colts @ Atlanta Falcons
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Indianapolis Colts | 67 | 40 | 59.7% | 252 | 1.6 | 27 | 40.3% | 104 | 0.9 | 20.7 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 69 | 40 | 58.0% | 305 | 1.7 | 29 | 42.0% | 126 | 1.2 | 25.4 |
The Colts will have Matt Hasselbeck under center this week. Look for the Colts to run the ball slightly more often than normal this week. The passing game will see a slight decrease in yardage and a decrease in their chance for two touchdown passes. The running game projects to get their typical yardage, but will have a significantly increased chance for a rushing score. The Colts pass 54% of the time in the red zone.
Look for the Falcons to run the ball slightly more often than usual this week. The increased rushing attempts will result in a slight increase in rushing yards with their typical opportunity for at least one rushing touchdown. The passing game projects to get their typical yardage, but will have an increased opportunity for two passing touchdowns. The Falcons run the ball over 52% of the time from inside the 10 yard line.
Increased Opportunities:
- Frank Gore chance for rushing TD (++)
- Matt Ryan chance for 2nd TD pass (++)
- Devonta Freeman (+)
St. Louis Rams @ Baltimore Ravens
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| St. Louis Rams | 63 | 33 | 52.4% | 210 | 1.2 | 30 | 47.6% | 123 | 0.8 | 20.6 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 68 | 43 | 63.2% | 278 | 1.3 | 25 | 36.8% | 101 | 0.7 | 20.9 |
The Rams will have a new quarterback, Case Keenum, under center this week. I don’t expect much chance in the Rams play distribution, however, the passing game might get a little spark. Look for the Rams pass attack to see an increase in yardage this week with a likelihood for one touchdown pass. The running game will perform at their typical level for yardage and likelihood for a rushing score. The Rams have run over 52% of the time in the red zone this season.
The Ravens project to have their normal play distribution. The passing game should fall in line with their typical level of production for both yardage and touchdown opportunity. The running game will also produce their normal rushing yardage with an opportunity for a rushing touchdown. The Ravens pass almost 60% of the time from inside the 10 yard line.
Increased Opportunities:
- Case Keenum and the Rams passing game (Tavon Austin) (+)
- I also like both Kickers in this one (++)
New York Jets @ Houston Texans
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| New York Jets | 66 | 37 | 56.1% | 231 | 1.8 | 29 | 43.9% | 120 | 0.8 | 22.4 |
| Houston Texans | 69 | 42 | 60.9% | 249 | 1.7 | 27 | 39.1% | 98 | 0.4 | 19.3 |
The Jets are expecting Ryan Fitzpatrick to be ready to start this week, so look for the Jets to execute their typical play distribution. The passing game projects for slightly less passing yards than usual with their typical opportunity for two touchdown passes. The running game should get their normal rushing yardage and opportunity for a rushing score. The Jets run the ball over 51% of the time when they are inside the 10 yard line.
Brian Hoyer sounds likely to miss this week’s game, so the Texans will start T.J. Yates at quarterback. With Yates, I expect the Texans to run the ball slightly more often than usual. With a fewer attempts look for the passing game to see a decrease in both yardage and their opportunity for two touchdown passes. The running game will see a slight increase in yardage with their typical low chance for a rushing score. The Texans pass over 60% of the time in the red zone.
Increased Opportunities:
- None, both defenses could be in play (+)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Philadelphia Eagles
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 66 | 36 | 54.5% | 237 | 1.3 | 30 | 45.5% | 127 | 0.6 | 19.7 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 68 | 39 | 57.4% | 266 | 1.8 | 29 | 42.6% | 116 | 0.9 | 24.1 |
Look for the Buccaneers to run more plays than normal this week. The passing game projects to have their typical yardage with a slightly increased chance for more than one touchdown pass. The running game should have close to their normal yardage on the ground with a decreased chance for a rushing score. The Buccaneers have run over 51% of the time in the red zone this season.
The Eagles will likely have Mark Sanchez starting at quarterback this week. I project that the Eagles play distribution will be similar to their typical ratio. The passing game projects for about the same amount of passing yards they usually get, but will have a significantly increased likelihood for two touchdown passes. The running game should have their typical yardage, but with a decreased opportunity for any more than one touchdown run. The Eagles run the ball 59% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
Increased Opportunities:
- Mark Sanchez chance for 2nd TD pass (++)
Denver Broncos @ Chicago Bears
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Denver Broncos | 62 | 37 | 59.7% | 236 | 1.6 | 25 | 40.3% | 107 | 0.6 | 20.3 |
| Chicago Bears | 66 | 36 | 54.5% | 221 | 1.2 | 30 | 45.5% | 116 | 0.9 | 20.4 |
The Broncos will have Brock Osweiler at quarterback this week. With Osweiler behind center, I expect the Broncos to have a slight shift of focus to the running game on the road this week. The running game with a few extra carries will gain more yardage than normal with their typical chance for one rushing touchdown. The passing game projects to see a decrease in passing yards, but an increased opportunity for more than one touchdown pass.
The Bears project to have their typical play distribution. The passing game should be less effective than normal with a decrease in both yardage and their chance for any more than one touchdown pass. The running game should perform in line with their typical level of production for yardage and their opportunity for a rushing touchdown. The Bears have an even 50/50 split between the run and pass when they are inside the 10 yard line.
Increased Opportunities:
- Brock Osweiler chance for 2nd TD pass (+)
- Both Defenses could also make good plays (+)
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Green Bay Packers | 63 | 38 | 60.3% | 255 | 1.9 | 25 | 39.7% | 115 | 0.6 | 21.1 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 65 | 33 | 50.8% | 230 | 1.0 | 32 | 49.2% | 155 | 1.1 | 21.6 |
The Packers are projected to execute their typical play distribution. The passing game should get their typical yardage, but will have a decreased chance for any more than two touchdowns through the air. The running game projects to gain their typical rushing yards with a slightly increased chance for a rushing score. The Packers have passed on over 68% of their plays from inside the 10 yard line this season.
Look for the Vikings to execute their typical run heavy play distribution. The passing game should see a slight increase in yardage and their likelihood for one touchdown pass. The running game should see a very small uptick in rushing yards with their typical likelihood for a rushing touchdown. The Vikings have run the ball almost 62% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
Increased Opportunities:
- None, both Kickers could be options (watch the weather) (+)
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| San Francisco 49ers | 61 | 34 | 55.7% | 191 | 0.9 | 27 | 44.3% | 97 | 0.6 | 14.9 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 65 | 33 | 50.8% | 280 | 1.6 | 32 | 49.2% | 159 | 1.0 | 23.6 |
The 49ers project to pass slightly more often than normal this week. The passing game will see a slight decrease in passing yards with a chance for one touchdown pass. The running game is projected to have a decrease in rushing yards, but a slightly increased chance for one rushing touchdown. The 49ers have passed on 59% of their plays in the red zone.
Look for the Seahawks to run the ball even more often than normal this week. The increased rushing attempts should result in an increase in both yardage and their likelihood for a rushing touchdown. The passing game should also be more effective than usual with an increase in passing yards and their chance for more than one touchdown pass. The Seahawks run the ball over 55% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
Increased Opportunities:
- Marshawn Lynch (++)
- Russell Wilson and the Seahawks passing game (++)
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 62 | 36 | 58.1% | 247 | 1.6 | 26 | 41.9% | 122 | 1.0 | 24.0 |
| San Diego Chargers | 68 | 45 | 66.2% | 293 | 2.1 | 23 | 33.8% | 85 | 0.4 | 21.4 |
The Chiefs project to run slightly more often than normal this week. The running game should see a slight increase in yards with their typical opportunity for at least one rushing touchdown. The passing game should have their typical passing yardage, but will have an increased chance for more than one touchdown pass. The Chiefs have run the ball over 56% of the time inside the 10 yard line.
The Chargers project to execute their typical play distribution. The passing game should be less effective than usual with a decrease in passing yards and their opportunity for any more than two touchdown passes. The running game projects to gain their typical rushing yards with a slightly increased chance for a rushing touchdown. The Chargers pass almost 70% of the time in the red zone.
Increased Opportunities:
- Alex Smith chance for 2nd TD pass (+)
- I also like both Kickers (+)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Arizona Cardinals
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 64 | 36 | 56.3% | 236 | 1.7 | 28 | 43.8% | 105 | 0.8 | 22.3 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 65 | 36 | 55.4% | 275 | 1.9 | 29 | 44.6% | 143 | 0.8 | 24.5 |
The Bengals project to pass more often than usual this week. Despite the increase in pass attempts, the passing game will still see a decrease in passing yards and their opportunity for two touchdown passes. The running game should get close to their typical rushing yards, but have a decreased chance for a rushing score. The Bengals have run the ball over 53% of the time in the red zone this season.
The Cardinals are projected for their typical play distribution. The passing game projects to have a slight decrease in passing yards and a decreased chance for any more than two touchdown passes. The running game will see an increase in yardage with a slightly decreased likelihood for a rushing touchdown. The Cardinals have passed on over 57% of their plays inside the 10 yard line.
Increased Opportunities:
- Cardinals rushing yardage (+)
- Another game where the Kickers could be in play (+)
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Buffalo Bills | 64 | 35 | 54.7% | 227 | 1.4 | 29 | 45.3% | 128 | 0.9 | 20.8 |
| New England Patriots | 67 | 43 | 64.2% | 296 | 2.3 | 24 | 35.8% | 97 | 0.9 | 27.7 |
Look for the Bills to go to the air more often than usual this week. The passing game should have their typical passing yardage and a decreased chance for more than one touchdown pass. The running game will have fewer rushing yards than normal with a decreased chance for any more than one rushing touchdown. The Bills run the ball over 65% of the time from inside the 10 yard line.
The Patriots project to execute their typical play distribution. The passing game will be less effective than normal with a decrease in yardage and their opportunity for more than two touchdown passes. The running game should perform in line with their typical level of production for both yardage and their opportunity for one rushing touchdown. The Patriots pass over 58% of the time in the red zone.
Increase Opportunities:
- None, I like the Patriots defense (+)
Hopefully, this gives you some potential fantasy football sleepers for the week or gets you to think about some of your own favorite plays based on the data and analysis.
