Joe Flacco, Justin Forsett, Charcandrick West, Devonta Freeman, Teddy Bridgewater, Zach Ertz…
Darrelle Revis, Vontae Davis, Patrick Peterson…
Those were the laundry list of names that flooded the injury report at the end of Week 11. Many of these will have major fantasy implications for Week 12.
Flacco and Forsett are done, Freeman may not play, making Tevin Coleman viable while Bridgewater and Ertz should have little fantasy impact. As for West, Knile Davis would be a candidate to fill in should he miss time.
As for the three cornerbacks, their absence could be game changers down the stretch. As for this week, Torrey Smith/Anquan Boldin and Rishard Mathews would get bumps should Peterson and Revis sit. Davis’ absence would greatly boost Mike Evans this week.
Anyway, this week we will concentrate solely on Sunday and Monday games. Happy Thanksgiving to you all!
Also, if you haven’t been following me here or in my CFB Power 5, my wife and I will with our newborn baby girl this week, so Week 12’s Vegas article is going to be short and sweet – not a lot of narrative, except Buying and Selling. Good luck everyone!
| Week 11 | Opening O/U | Opening Spread | Opening ML | Closing O/U | Closing Spread | Closing ML | Projected Score | Final Score | Grade |
| Denver at Chicago | 43 | -3 – Den | -130 – Den | 41.5 | -2.5 – Den | -130 – Den | 22 – 19.5 – Den | 17 – 15 – Den | 2 pts. – D |
| Dallas at Miami | 46.5 | -1 – Mia | -125 – Mia | 45.5 | -2.5 – Dal | -130 – Dal | 24 – 21.5 – Dal | 24 – 14 – Dal | 3 pts. – C |
| Oakland at Detroit | 48.5 | Even | -125 – Oak | 50 | -1 – Oak | -125 – Oak | 26 – 24 – Oak | 18 – 13 – Det | 1 pt. – F |
| Indianapolis at Atlanta | 46 | -4 – Atl | -260 – Atl | 47.5 | -3.5 – Atl | -200 – Atl | 25.5 – 22 – Atl | 24 – 21 – Ind | 2 pts. – D |
| St. Louis at Baltimore | 42.5 | Even | -125 – Bal | 41.5 | -3 – Bal | -160 – Bal | 22.25 – 19.25 – Bal | 16 – 13 – Bal | 6 pts. – B |
| Washington at Carolina | 46 | -7.5 – Car | -330 – Car | 44 | -7 – Car | -310 – Car | 25.5 – 18.5 – Car | 44 – 16 – Car | 1 pt. – F |
| Tampa Bay at Philadelphia | 45.5 | -7 – Phi | -240 – Phi | 45 | -6.5 – Phi | -300 – Phi | 25.75 – 19.25 – Phi | 45 – 17 – TB | -1 pt. – F |
| NY Jets at Houston | 41 | -2.5 – NYJ | -140 – NYJ | 40 | -4 – NYJ | -200 – NYJ | 22 – 18 – NYJ | 24 – 17 – Hou | 3 pts. – C |
| Kansas City at San Diego | 46 | -3 – KC | -160 – KC | 45.5 | -3 – KC | -170 – KC | 24.25 – 21.25 – KC | 33 – 3 – KC | 3 pts. – C |
| Green Bay at Minnesota | 45 | Even | -125 – GB | 45 | -1 – Min | -120 – Min | 23 – 22 – Min | 30 – 13 – GB | 4 pts. – B |
| San Francisco at Seattle | 41.5 | -10 – Sea | -763 – Sea | 40 | -14 – Sea | -1000 – Sea | 27 – 13 – Sea | 29 – 13 – Sea | 6 pts. – B |
| Cincinnatti at Arizona | 48 | -2.5 – Ari | -185 – Ari | 48 | -4 – Ari | -200 – Ari | 26 – 22 – Ari | 37 – 34 – Ari | 5 pts. – B |
| Buffalo at New England | 49.5 | -7.5 – NE | -400 – NE | 47.5 | -7 – NE | -350 – NE | 27.25 – 20.25 – NE | 20 – 13 – NE | 2 pts. – D |
Vegas had an even worse week this week than last, but the Panthers and Pats continue to be undefeated. Some of the top money lines are under performing, so hopefully that’s a trend we can buck soon.
Also, the Cowboys are going to take down the Panthers Thanksgiving Day. Mark that down.
| Scale | Week 11 Grades | Total Grades |
| 1 or less – F | A – 0 | A – 5 |
| 2 – D | B – 4 | B – 47 |
| 3 – C | C – 3 | C – 28 |
| 4-6 – B | D – 3 | D – 37 |
| 7-8 – A | F – 3 | F – 30 |
Above are the Week 11 grades and below is a look at Week 12 with a quick look at what I am buying and selling.
| Week 12 | Opening O/U | Opening Spread | Opening ML |
| Baltimore at Cleveland | 41.5 | Even | -135 – Cle |
| New England at Denver | 47.5 | -5.5 – NE | -170 – NE |
| Pittsburgh at Seattle | 44 | -3.5 – Sea | -245 – Sea |
| Arizona at San Francisco | 44.5 | -9.5 – Ari | -578 – Ari |
| Buffalo at Kansas City | 41 | -3.5 – KC | N/A |
| New Orleans at Houston | 49 | -3 – Hou | -150 – Hou |
| Oakland at Tennessee | 45 | -2 – Oak | -135 – Oak |
| NY Giants at Washington | 47 | -1.5 – NYG | -130 – NYG |
| San Diego at Jacksonville | 48.5 | -4.5 – Jax | -225 – Jax |
| Miami at NY Jets | 43.5 | -4.5 – NYJ | -200 – NYJ |
| St. Louis at Cincinnati | 42 | -7.5 – Cin | -450 – Cin |
| Tampa Bay at Indianapolis | 47 | -3 – Ind | -150 – Ind |
| Minnesota at Atlanta | 44 | -2.5 – Atl | -145 – Atl |
BUYING
T.J. Yeldon vs. San Diego – Vegas has a high-point total for this game, and rightfully so. The Jags defense is suspect and while Philip Rivers doesn’t have Keenan Allen, he still has two running backs and a very capable tight end. The Chargers are down and out, so I worry they are not going to try as hard as normal. Rivers isn’t a quitter, but the Chargers really have nothing to play for. That’s great for Yeldon, who faces the worst rush defense in the league. He’s a 3-down back that should see plenty of work as I expect the Jags to have the lead for most of this game.
Buffalo/Kansas City O/U – The Chiefs have come alive defensively of late. They have allowed 18 or less points in 6 straight games and face a Bills squad that could be without starting QB Tyrod Taylor. The Chiefs still don’t have a quick-striking offense and use the run game to wear down defenses. These two forces combine for a low-scoring affair in my book. Chiefs should come away victorious and continue their resurgence in the AFC West.
NY Giants Point Total – The NFC East is a mess, but both the Redskins and Giants have legit chances to win the division. The Giants defense is going to be as healthy as its been all year in this contest, so that could severely limit the Redskins offense. As for the Giants’ offense, insert Odell Beckham, Jr. He’s my top receiver play of the week against a Redskins’ secondary that is healthy again, but a wreck. The Giants offense is healthy and without a solid run game, Manning and his receivers will see a heavy dose of looks through the air.
SELLING
Saints/Texans O/U – The Texans defense has held opponents to 20 points or less in 4 out of their last 5 games. Since a 44-point shellacking by Miami four weeks ago, the Texans have allowed point totals of 6, 6, and 17. The Saints were red hot, but struggled on the road to the Redskins a couple of weeks ago. While I think DeAndre Hopkins goes off, I think the Texans can withstand a Saints offense that has many flaws, including a lack of a downfield threat. The Texans are playing well and are in the thick of the AFC South. I fully expect the Texans, despite limitations at QB and RB, to play the Saints tough, especially with two solid cornerbacks in the secondary that could slow down Cooks and Snead. Watt and company can load the box to take care of Ingram and put lots of pressure on Brees.
Cardinals Spread – The 49ers are not a good football team, but for some reason, they have played exceptionally well at home. I am going to roll with that trend this week as they are 9.5-point underdogs this week against the Cards. The 49ers have not allowed more than 20 points at home. Point totals this year: Vikings – 3, Packers – 17, Baltimore and Seattle – 20 and Atlanta 16. The Cardinals could easily buck this trend and I wouldn’t be shocked, but after a huge win on Sunday night against the Bengals, also if they are without Patrick Peterson, I could see them keeping the Cards in check this week.
Indianapolis and Falcons as favorites – I am going out on a limb in this one, but I can’t buy the Colts with Matt Hasselbeck at QB nor can I buy the Falcons at home. The Bucs are coming alive of late and put up monster numbers against the Eagles. This could be a let down week, but they could be facing a defense that can’t stop the run and a secondary without Vontae Davis. Vincent Jackson, albeit aging, really opened things up for this offense with his return to the lineup. If Sefarian-Jenkins returns, I could see this offense really clicking this week. The Colts have allowed less than 20 points in a game just once and the Bucs are showing signs of offensive promise with a rookie QB. As for Atlanta, what a letdown they have had in the middle part of the season. Now they could be without Devonta Freeman, who is clearly the better running back over Tevin Coleman. Matt Ryan is a one-trick pony with Julio Jones as the only viable receiving option in that offense. Roddy White and Leonard Hankerson are unwhelming receivers, and the Vikings defense has allowed no more than 23 points in a game other than one time, and that was last week against a pissed off Packers club. The Vikes are legit and the Falcons are reeling. Look for this one to feature lots of Adrian Peterson (especially if Bridgewater doesn’t play), meaning the clock is going to be running and that will limit possessions for both teams.
| Week 11 | Overall |
| O vs. U – 5-8 | O vs. U – 72-70-4 |
| Favorite vs. Underdog – 8-5 | Favorite vs. Underdog – 87-56 |
| Favorite Wins with <120 Money Line – 0-0 | Team Wins with <120 Money Line – 5-0 |
| Favorite Wins with 120-139 Money Line – 2-2 | Team Wins with 120-139 Money Line – 9-11 |
| Favorite Wins with 140-169 Money Line – 1-0 | Team Wins with 140-169 Money Line – 14-7 |
| Favorite Wins with 170-199 Money Line – 1-0 | Team Wins with 170-199 Money Line – 11-8 |
| Favorite Wins with 200-299 Money Line – 1-2 | Team Wins with 200-299 Money Line – 26-15 |
| Favorite Wins with 300+ Money Line – 2-1 | Team Wins with 300+ Money Line – 25-11 |
| Spread Increased, Favorite Won – 4-3 | Spread Increased, Favorite Won – 45-27 |
| Spread Decreased, Underdog Won – 2-3 | Spread Decreased, Underdog Won – 23-26 |
| Favorite vs. Underdog When Spread Remains Constant – 1-0 | Favorite vs. Underdog When Spread Remains Constant – 14-4 |
| High O/Us (48+) Meet Or Exceed 48 Pts. – 1-2 | High O/Us (48+) Meet Or Exceed 48 Points – 16-20 |
| Low O/Us (<42) Meet or Finish Under 42 pts. – 0-2 | Low O/Us (<42) Meet or Finish Under 42 pts. – 6-12 |
| Divisional Games O vs. U – 1-3 | Divisional Games O vs. U – 23-20-1 |
| Division O/U 50+ O vs. U – 0-0 | Division O/U 48+ O vs. U – 6-6 |
| Division O/U 42-49.5 O vs. U – 1-3 | Division O/U 42-47.5 O vs. U – 17-11-1 |
| Division O/U 41.5 or Less O vs. U – 0-0 | Division O/U 41.5 or Less O vs. U – 2-1 |
Above is the weekly records check for various categories. Favorites got back on track this week after winning just 3 games in Week 10. High over O/U projections continue to underwhelm. Overall, it was a low-scoring fantasy week. Keep banking on high moneylines of -300 or more and games where spreads stay constant from beginning of the week to the end, favorites in those games are doing really well.
| Team | Vegas Records Through Week 11 | Actual Records Through Week 11 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7 – 3 | 6 – 4 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 9 – 1 | 8 – 2 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 8 – 2 | 2 – 8 |
| Buffalo Bills | 3 – 5 – 1 | 5 – 4 |
| Carolina Panthers | 8 – 2 | 10 – 0 |
| Chicago Bears | 0 – 10 | 4 – 6 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 7 – 2 – 1 | 8 – 2 |
| Cleveland Browns | 2 – 8 (Bye) | 2 – 8 (Bye) |
| Dallas Cowboys | 4 – 6 | 3 – 7 |
| Denver Broncos | 8 – 2 | 8 – 2 |
| Detroit Lions | 2 – 8 | 3 – 7 |
| Green Bay Packers | 9 – 1 | 7 – 3 |
| Houston Texans | 4 – 6 | 5 – 5 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 6 – 4 | 5 – 5 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 1 – 9 | 4 – 6 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 5 – 5 | 5 – 5 |
| Miami Dolphins | 4 – 6 | 5 – 5 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 7 – 3 | 7 – 3 |
| New England Patriots | 9 – 0 | 9 – 0 |
| New Orleans Saints | 5 – 5 (Bye) | 4 – 6 (Bye) |
| New York Giants | 5 – 5 (Bye) | 5 – 5 (Bye) |
| New York Jets | 8 – 2 | 5 – 5 |
| Oakland Raiders | 3 – 7 | 4 – 5 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 8 – 2 | 4 – 6 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 3 – 6 – 1 (Bye) | 7 – 3 (Bye) |
| San Diego Chargers | 5 – 5 | 2 – 8 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 1 – 9 | 3 – 7 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 8 – 2 | 4 – 6 |
| St. Louis Rams | 6 – 4 | 5 – 5 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2 – 8 | 5 – 5 |
| Tennessee Titans | 2 – 7 – 1 | 2 – 8 |
| Washington Redskins | 1 – 9 | 4 – 6 |
Lastly, our weekly check on Vegas team records and actual team records. Things are starting to even out and the Ravens actually won a game they were favored in! Can the Jags make it two wins in a row as the favorite? We will see next week!
