Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving and have awoken from their food coma. Today’s Black Friday sale from DailyOverlay doesn’t even require you to wait in long lines. It is a free NFL Hot Sheet for the Week 12 main slate. With the holiday, I don’t have time for my usual full game-by-game breakdown, but […]
Nothing better than Thanksgiving in my humble opinion. Great food, family and, of course, football. The only bad thing about the three-game Thursday slate is it is broken. It appears all you have to do is jam in as many Saints players as possible, at least in Cash games, and win all the money. In […]
Another week in the gradebook for the NFL season. Week 11 was another rise of the machines week with RotoGrinders – Lineup Builder and DailyRoto – Optimizer leading the way. Meanwhile, a machine in human form from FantasyTeamAdvice is starting to run away with the overall top spot. On to the Week 11 grades, class […]
Week 11 was a brutal week for most of the NFL handicappers as they come in with a collective winning percentage of just 43% overall. As a result, our Handicapper Consensus also finished with a losing record ATS for the first time since Week 5. Hopefully, a little Thanksgiving week action will get the NFL […]
There is a good-looking nine-game NBA slate on Monday night with plenty of high-scoring action and close games if you believe Vegas. Note that this will be my only NBA Hot Sheet article this week with just a four-game slate on Tuesday and then the Thanksgiving holiday approaching. We’ll still have plenty of NBA and NFL content over the holiday and I’ll return with my NBA Hot Sheet next week.
The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.
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Welcome to the Week 11 NFL Handicapper Consensus! There are eight against the spread selections generated from our consensus this week. The ATS picks from the Consensus have gone 20-7 (74.1%) over the last five weeks. Let’s keep it rolling!
In this series, we will publish a consensus of Handicapper Picks against the spread and totals where we pay for the premium picks and take the time and effort to accumulate them, so you don’t have to. This week we pulled picks from 14 expert sites and 44 different handicappers to get our consensus betting selections. Picks make the Consensus list if they receive at least three more selection on one side than the other side. We will also be grading handicappers throughout the season.
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Free Play of the Week: Eagles +7.5
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Here is the NFL Handicapper Consensus list for Week 11…
Week 11 of the NFL season gives us six teams on bye and a marquee matchup on Monday night (Chiefs/Rams) but there are still plenty of strong DFS options in good matchups to choose from on the 10-game Sunday main slate. Be sure to sign up for a FREE 7-day trial if you’re not already a subscriber to get the best snapshot of the DFS Industry’s thoughts on the Week 11 slate!
In this series, we will publish a consensus of NFL DFS expert’s recommendations that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking for each position. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We also list the projected Ownership Percentages for Cash and GPP leagues to help you identify some players that could be good low-owned contrarian plays. We will include all players that have a Rank Score of at least 10.
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Here is the NFL Weighted Consensus list for Week 11…
There are eight games on the NBA hardwood Friday night. Two of them feature double-digit favorites with the Bucks over the Bulls and Pelicans over the Knicks. This has me a little leery of rostering the high-priced studs, Anthony Davis and Giannis Antetokounmpo, outside of GPP lineups. Meanwhile, there are a bunch of games with tight spreads including the Blazers/Wolves, Heat/Pacers and Raptors/Celtics that garner a lot of my interest on Friday’s slate.
The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.
Sign up for a FREE 7-day trial to get this article and all of the great content here at DailyOverlay.
There are six teams on bye in Week 11 of the NFL season but other than the Patriots it is a lot of unappealing offenses so there is not much impact to the bounty of quality fantasy options still available this week. However, the marquee, high-scoring shootout that everyone wants to see is on Monday night between the Chiefs and Rams, so you might have to get in some full-week slate or primetime slate action to get in the fun and fantasy cornucopia that game is expected to bring.
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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.
So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…
| Team | QB | RB | WR1 | WR2 | WR3 | TE | D | Vegas |
| Green Bay Packers | 48 | 48 | 56 | 47 | 38 | 50 | 54 | 49 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 50 | 59 | 52 | 56 | 48 | 43 | 46 | -3 |
The Packers are coming off a win over the Dolphins last week but will travel to Seattle to face the Seahawks on a short week on Thursday night. It could be a tough matchup for Aaron Rodgers and the passing game as the Seahawks rank 6th DVOA against the pass this season and have allowed just 244 passing yards (6th) and 1.6 TD passes (10th). Top WR Davante Adams has the best individual matchup of the pass catchers and should once again lead the way. Jimmy Graham returns to face his former team, but the Seahawks have been stingy to opposing TEs allowing just 36 yards (4th) per game this season. He could score but a big yardage day is unlikely. Aaron Jones had a big day on the ground last week against the Dolphins and could follow it up with a solid effort on Thursday. The Seahawks have given up 5.36 YPC (28th) to opposing RBs this season and rank 20th DVOA against the run, while Jones averages 6.8 YPC on the year.
The Seahawks fell to the Rams in Week 10 in L.A. and will come home to face the Packers on a quick turnaround on Thursday night. Passing yardage should be in limited supply for Russell Wilson on Thursday as the Seahawks average just 219 yards (27th) per game while the Packers pass defense has limited opponents to 244 yards (7th) per game this season. Wilson has been effective in the red zone, however, with 2.8 TD passes (3rd) per game over the last five weeks. The most vulnerable spot in the Packers pass defense in the red zone is against WRs who have scored 1.4 TDs (28th) per game against them this year. Tyler Lockett and David Moore have been the primary red-zone targets for Wilson this season giving them both a decent shot at a score. The Seahawks continue to be a run-first team this season and should get Chris Carson back this week. This will likely push either Mike Davis or Rashaad Penny completely out of the RB rotation with Carson taking back over the lead role. They will face a Packers run defense that ranks 26th DVOA this season and is in the bottom third of the league in rushing yardage, YPC and TDs allowed to opposing RBs.
Hot Picks:
Welcome to the Weighted Consensus for the PGA where we publish a more in-depth version of the PGA Consensus rankings that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking.
To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We will include all players that are selected by at least two.
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Here is the PGA Weighted Consensus list for the RSM Classic:
We have a big 11-game NBA slate for Wednesday night. With so many options to choose from it is great to have a look at who the industry experts recommend the most with the Weighted Consensus Rankings. There are only three games with a Vegas total over 220 on the slate with just one game over 230.
The Weighted Consensus for the NBA uses each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score for players is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. This method gives the higher rated experts picks more weight when compiling the overall player rankings for the day. We will include all players that generate a Rank Score of at least 10.0.
As a reminder, most of our NBA content will be part of our premium membership. Now is a great time to sign up for our premium content so you are all set for the NBA season.
Here is the NBA Weighted Consensus list for November 14:
After a skimpy three-game slate on Tuesday, the NBA is back in full force on Wednesday with a big 11-game slate. A big slate means there are plenty of options when building out your DFS lineups. While I have zeroed into my top 10 plays below there are some others that just missed the cut […]