There are six teams on bye in Week 11 of the NFL season but other than the Patriots it is a lot of unappealing offenses so there is not much impact to the bounty of quality fantasy options still available this week. However, the marquee, high-scoring shootout that everyone wants to see is on Monday night between the Chiefs and Rams, so you might have to get in some full-week slate or primetime slate action to get in the fun and fantasy cornucopia that game is expected to bring.

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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.

So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…

Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks

Team QB RB WR1 WR2 WR3 TE D Vegas
Green Bay Packers 48 48 56 47 38 50 54 49
Seattle Seahawks 50 59 52 56 48 43 46 -3

The Packers are coming off a win over the Dolphins last week but will travel to Seattle to face the Seahawks on a short week on Thursday night. It could be a tough matchup for Aaron Rodgers and the passing game as the Seahawks rank 6th DVOA against the pass this season and have allowed just 244 passing yards (6th) and 1.6 TD passes (10th). Top WR Davante Adams has the best individual matchup of the pass catchers and should once again lead the way. Jimmy Graham returns to face his former team, but the Seahawks have been stingy to opposing TEs allowing just 36 yards (4th) per game this season. He could score but a big yardage day is unlikely. Aaron Jones had a big day on the ground last week against the Dolphins and could follow it up with a solid effort on Thursday. The Seahawks have given up 5.36 YPC (28th) to opposing RBs this season and rank 20th DVOA against the run, while Jones averages 6.8 YPC on the year.

The Seahawks fell to the Rams in Week 10 in L.A. and will come home to face the Packers on a quick turnaround on Thursday night. Passing yardage should be in limited supply for Russell Wilson on Thursday as the Seahawks average just 219 yards (27th) per game while the Packers pass defense has limited opponents to 244 yards (7th) per game this season. Wilson has been effective in the red zone, however, with 2.8 TD passes (3rd) per game over the last five weeks. The most vulnerable spot in the Packers pass defense in the red zone is against WRs who have scored 1.4 TDs (28th) per game against them this year. Tyler Lockett and David Moore have been the primary red-zone targets for Wilson this season giving them both a decent shot at a score. The Seahawks continue to be a run-first team this season and should get Chris Carson back this week. This will likely push either Mike Davis or Rashaad Penny completely out of the RB rotation with Carson taking back over the lead role. They will face a Packers run defense that ranks 26th DVOA this season and is in the bottom third of the league in rushing yardage, YPC and TDs allowed to opposing RBs.

Hot Picks:

  • Davante Adams (*)
  • Aaron Jones (*)
  • Chris Carson (*)
  • Tyler Lockett (*)
  • David Moore (*)
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