Entries by Brad Richter

NBA – Hot Sheet – November 5

There are a solid nine-games on the NBA docket for Monday night and if Vegas is right we could be in for a lot of close, competitive games with all by one game coming in with a favorite of five points or fewer. The Vegas point totals aren’t quite as high as some nights have been this season with the Pelicans/Thunder matchup as the only game with a total over 230 points. It looks like it could be a fun night of NBA and DFS action!

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

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Hot Sheet for November 5th

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November 5 by

NFL – Handicapper Consensus Picks – Week 9

The Week 9 Handicapper Consensus bring us a six-pack of against the spread recommendations for this weekend’s NFL slate.

In this series, we will publish a consensus of Handicapper Picks against the spread and totals where we pay for the premium picks and take the time and effort to accumulate them, so you don’t have to. This week we pulled picks from 16 expert sites and 43 different handicappers to get our consensus betting selections.  Picks make the Consensus list if they receive at least three more selection on one side than the other side. We will also be grading handicappers throughout the season.

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Free Play of the Week: Titans +5.5

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Here is the NFL Handicapper Consensus list for Week 9…

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November 4 by

NFL – DFS Weighted Consensus – Week 9

There is another 10-game Sunday Main Slate with six teams on bye and the usual set of three primetime games off the docket. It looks like another chalky week for Cash games but there are some interesting GPP options to consider pivoting to. Vegas tells us to load up on the Bucs/Panthers and Rams/Saints matchups, but do the DFS industry experts agree?  Find out by signing up for this great snapshot of the DFS industry for Week 9.

In this series, we will publish a consensus of NFL DFS expert’s recommendations that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking for each position. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We also list the projected Ownership Percentages for Cash and GPP leagues to help you identify some players that could be good low-owned contrarian plays. We will include all players that have a Rank Score of at least 10.

This article is part of our premium content, so be sure to sign up to get this great snapshot of who the DFS Industry Experts recommend.

Here is the NFL Weighted Consensus list for Week 9…

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November 3 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – November 2

The Friday night slate brings us eight games of NBA action. Be sure to keep an eye on the injury news in the backcourt in Minnesota and for any other surprise inactives leading up to tip-off. There are two games with a Vegas total over 230 points on the slate with the Thunder/Wizards and Wolves/Warriors but there are also some other good spots to find “heat” on this slate.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

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Hot Sheet for November 2nd

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November 2 by

NFL – Hot Sheet – Week 9

We clear the halfway point of the NFL season this week as we enter Week 9. While there are quite a few games that are expected to be close this week there are two games that stand alone with big Vegas point totals on the Sunday main slate with the Rams/Saints and Bucs/Panthers. But first, let’s kickoff the week with a barnburner in San Fran between two one-win teams (give me the Raiders plus the points). Now, that’s entertainment!

Be sure to sign up for a FREE 7-day trial to read this full article and to get all the other great content here at DailyOverlay. Scroll to the bottom of the article for my top DFS plays at each position and my Top Bets.

Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.

So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…

Oakland Raiders @ San Francisco 49ers

Team QB RB WR1 WR2 WR3 TE D Vegas
Oakland Raiders 55 47 51 67 71 58 54 46
San Francisco 49ers 56 67 30 22 59 67 41 -2.5

The Raiders lost their third consecutive game last week with a loss to the Colts. They play on a short week against the 49ers in San Francisco in Week 9. Derek Carr threw three TD passes last week and could have similar success this week as the 49ers have allowed 2.3 TD passes (28th) per game and the Raiders have the 2nd highest pass ratio inside the 10 yard line this year. Look for the inside route receivers like Jordy Nelson and Seth Roberts to have solid games as the 49ers rank 25th and 28th respectively against #2 and #3 WRs this year. Meanwhile, TE Jared Cook continues to be heavily involved in the offense and has a beatable matchup. On the ground, Doug Martin looked spry in his first start averaging 5.5 YPC in place of the injured Marshawn Lynch. Short weeks tend to favor the running game and if the Raiders can get a lead it could be a strong game for Martin against the 49ers 20th DVOA ranked run defense.

The 49ers dropped their sixth straight game last week in a loss to the Cardinals and will battle another one-win team, the Raiders, at home this week. The big question for the 49ers is if C.J. Beathard will be able to play after missing practice all week. He is considered a game-time decision. If Beathard doesn’t play then Nick Mullens will get the start. If Beathard sits out then avoid all 49ers pass catchers, but if he does play then TE George Kittle becomes a very strong option as the Raiders ranked dead last DVOA against opposing TEs this season. Other than Kittle the only other pass catcher that could be worth a flier is Marquise Goodwin who has the best individual matchup at WR. The 49ers running game is where they should do most of their work against a Cardinals run defense that ranks 26th DVOA and has given up 5.19 YPC (28th) and 1.5 rushing TDs (32nd) per game over the last five weeks. Matt Breida figures to get the bulk of the carries if his ankle injury allows him to play.

Hot Picks:

  • Derek Carr (*)
  • Doug Martin (*)
  • Jared Cook (*)
  • George Kittle (**) – if Beathard plays
  • Matt Breida (**)
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November 1 by

PGA – 2018 Shriners Open – Weighted Consensus

Welcome to the Weighted Consensus for the PGA where we publish a more in-depth version of the PGA Consensus rankings that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking.

To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We will include all players that are selected by at least two.

Be sure to sign up a FREE 7-day trial of our Premium Content to find out which high-priced Stud and Value options sit atop the expert’s list.

Here is the PGA Weighted Consensus list for the Shriners Open:

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November 1 by

NFL – Expert Grading and Recap – Week 8

We are about halfway through the NFL season and the Overall Leaderboard has stabilized with FantasyTeamAdvice leading the way with a pair of RotoGrinders recommendations rounding out the Top 3. For Week 8, ProFootballFocus and the machines (RG – Lineup Builder and DailyRoto – Optimizer) took home the top spots. On to the Week 8 […]

November 1 by

NBA – Industry Expert Consensus – October 31st

The slate isn’t very scary with plenty of cheap value options (fun-sized candy) to allow you to pay up for some high-priced studs (full-sized candy bars). We’ll give you a treat on Halloween with a FREE NBA Weighted Consensus Rankings for Wednesday’s seven-game slate. If you like what you see then be sure to sign-up […]

October 31 by

NBA – Industry Expert Consensus – October 30th

There are a lot of strong mid-range price option sitting atop the expert’s Weighted Consensus Rankings for Tuesday’s eight-game NBA slate. See who the top recommend plays are with this great NBA industry snapshot including projected ownership percentages.

The Weighted Consensus for the NBA uses each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score for players is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. This method gives the higher rated experts picks more weight when compiling the overall player rankings for the day. We will include all players that generate a Rank Score of at least 10.0.

As a reminder, most of our NBA content will be part of our premium membership. Now is a great time to sign up for our premium content so you are all set for the NBA season.

Here is the NBA Weighted Consensus list for October 30:

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October 30 by

NFL – Handicapper Results and Recap – Week 8

Week 8 was a very good week for the NFL handicappers as they produced over a 60% winning percentage against the spread collectively. This also helped lead to a great 4-1 record for our Consensus Picks. See below for all of the handicappers that finished with a perfect week which also helped propel some of […]

October 30 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – October 30

There is another fun slate awaiting on Tuesday with eight games on the NBA hardwood. While we don’t have any Vegas totals over 230 points for the first time in a while there are still plenty of matchups that are expected to be close games with Vegas totals in the 220s. It could be a night of exciting, close games where an OT thriller could tilt the slate.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

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Hot Sheet for October 30th

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October 30 by