Entries by Brad Richter

NBA – Hot Sheet – October 22

If you look at the Vegas lines for Monday’s nine-game NBA slate, you will see the potential for a lot of high-scoring blowouts. There are seven games with a Vegas total over 220 points and also five games with a favorite of at least nine points. If not too worried about players getting reduced minutes in a blowout so early in the season, except for maybe the Warriors who are playing in the second game of a back-to-back and their third game in the last four days.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

Hot Sheet for October 22nd

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October 22 by

NFL – Handicapper Consensus Picks – Week 7

Welcome to the Week 7 NFL Handicapper Consensus!  The handicappers couldn’t seem to agree this week as there are only seven recommended picks on the Consensus with a high net consensus of just five.

In this series, we will publish a consensus of Handicapper Picks against the spread and totals where we pay for the premium picks and take the time and effort to accumulate them, so you don’t have to. This week we pulled picks from 15 expert sites and 44 different handicappers to get our consensus betting selections.  Picks make the Consensus list if they receive at least three more selection on one side than the other side. We will also be grading handicappers throughout the season.

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Here is the NFL Handicapper Consensus list for Week 7…

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October 20 by

NFL – DFS Weighted Consensus – Week 7

There is only a 10-game main slate on Sunday with four teams on bye, three primetime matchups and an early Sunday game in London. This has seemed to condense the top plays available, especially at RB and TE where there is some obvious chalk that will have very high ownership. The difference makers will come at QB, WR and D/ST so be sure to check out who the DFS experts recommend before filling out those Cash and GPP lineups.

In this series, we will publish a consensus of NFL DFS expert’s recommendations that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking for each position. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We also list the projected Ownership Percentages for Cash and GPP leagues to help you identify some players that could be good low-owned contrarian plays. We will include all players that have been recommended by at least two experts.

This article is part of our premium content, so be sure to sign up to get this great snapshot of who the DFS Industry Experts recommend.

Here is the NFL Weighted Consensus list for Week 7…

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October 20 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – October 19

Early in the season a lot of my “research” is just looking at who is playing bigger minutes than expected compared to their DFS salary. I also do a little bit of box score chasing for players that seem to be coming out of the gate fast to try to capitalize before their salaries rise to meet their potential new level of production. Once we get a few more games of data for each team then the Hot Sheet will start to take shape and reflect this season’s numbers.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

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Hot Sheet for October 19th

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October 19 by

NFL – Hot Sheet – Week 7

Week 7 is the first week with more than two teams on bye as the Packers, Steelers, Seahawks and Raiders get a week off. The DFS landscape for this week is interesting as well with only 10 games on the Sunday main slate while four games with numerous big offenses off the main slate including a game in London on Sunday morning. This leaves the DFS options for the Sunday main slate pretty sparse, especially at RB. Get your game-by-game breakdown of all 14 games and then figure out which slates you might want to get some action in on.

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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.

So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…

Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals

Team QB RB WR1 WR2 WR3 TE D Vegas
Denver Broncos 34 62 22 39 41 36 38 -2
Arizona Cardinals 33 58 20 52 16 50 59 42

The Broncos are coming off a road loss to the Rams and will now stay on the road on a short week to face the Cardinals in Arizona. The Broncos passing game hasn’t been able to produce much this season and that probably won’t change on Thursday night against a Cardinals pass defense that has allowed just 1.0 TD passes (2nd) per game this season and ranks 9th DVOA. While TD passes will be hard to come by Case Keenum should still be able to help move the ball through the air between the 20s with WR Emmanuel Sanders working with the best matchup out of the slot. While the Broncos passing game could struggle their running game should flourish against the Cardinals run defense that has allowed 139 rushing yards (30th) and 1.3 rushing TDs (32nd) per game this season. Their 14th DVOA ranking against the run suggests they might not be quiet that bad but it should still be a good night for both Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. Of course, that is also the problem as a split backfield is never good for fantasy, however, in this matchup both could still be worthy options.

The Cardinals fell to 1-5 with their loss in Minnesota last week and will try to get their second win of the year at home against the Broncos on a short week. The Cardinals passing game has been a little bit better with rookie Josh Rosen under center but is still near the bottom in the league in most statistical categories. Meanwhile, the Broncos pass defense has been solid with an 8th DVOA ranking while allowing just 1.5 TD pass (8th) per game this season. Rookie WR Christian Kirk appears to be a favorite target for Rosen as Kirk has put up over 75 receiving yards in three of his last four games. However, much like the Broncos, the Cardinals best bet for success is on the ground with David Johnson. Johnson has had at least 18 carries in each of the last three weeks and he will face a Broncos defense that has been shredded for over 200 yards on the ground in back-to-back weeks. They rank 29th DVOA and dead last in rushing yards allowed with 150 per game to opposing RBs.

Hot Picks:

  • Phillip Lindsay (*)
  • Royce Freeman (*)
  • David Johnson (**)
  • Christian Kirk (*)
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October 18 by

NFL – Expert Grading and Recap – Week 6

The NFL season is rolling along and the DFS experts are starting to settle into their spots in the Overall Leaderboard with FantasyTeamAdvice leading the way. However, Week 6 was all about the optimizers as the RotoGrinders – Lineup Builder and the newly added DailyRoto – Optimizer led the way. Looks like the rest of […]

October 18 by

PGA – 2018 CJ Cup at Nine Bridges – Weighted Consensus

Welcome to the Weighted Consensus for the PGA where we publish a more in-depth version of the PGA Consensus rankings that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking.

To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We will include all players that are selected by at least two.

Be sure to sign up a FREE 7-day trial of our Premium Content to find out which high-priced Stud and Value options sit atop the expert’s list.

Here is the PGA Weighted Consensus list for the CJ Cup at Nine Bridges:

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October 17 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – October 17

Welcome to the first NBA Hot Sheet for the 2018-19 season! I will once again be providing you with the Hot Sheet matrix that assigns a score to each position for each team that is based on a variety of data metrics that impact fantasy production. Early on in the season, the data is primarily […]

October 17 by

NFL – Handicapper Results and Recap – Week 6

Overall, the handicappers finished with a winning record and small profit in Week 6. They were carried by a few handicappers who had a great week, led by Mike Tierney (Sportsline) who went a perfect 7-0 in bets that we tracked. There were also two handicappers that went a perfect 3-0 including Jason Logan (Covers) […]

October 16 by

NFL – Handicapper Consensus Picks – Week 6

The NFL Handicapper Consensus is looking for a bounce back in Week 6 after a losing Week 5. There are nine “best bets” from the handicappers for this week’s NFL action.

In this series, we will publish a consensus of Handicapper Picks against the spread and totals where we pay for the premium picks and take the time and effort to accumulate them, so you don’t have to. This week we pulled picks from 15 expert sites and 45 different handicappers to get our consensus betting selections.  Picks make the Consensus list if they receive at least three more selection on one side than the other side. We will also be grading handicappers throughout the season.

This article is part of our premium content, so be sure to sign up!

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Here is the NFL Handicapper Consensus list for Week 6…

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October 13 by

NFL – DFS Weighted Consensus – Week 6

There appears to be some mega-chalk for the Week 6 Sunday main slate that is coming from the Buccaneers/Falcons matchup which has the highest Vegas total on the slate. However, there are plenty of ways to pivot off the chalk in our GPP lists for each position. And then there is the RB position which seems like it might have more spread out ownership than usual unless specific injury news narrows some of the backfield situations.

In this series, we will publish a consensus of NFL DFS expert’s recommendations that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking for each position. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We also list the projected Ownership Percentages for Cash and GPP leagues to help you identify some players that could be good low-owned contrarian plays. We will include all players that have been recommended by at least two experts.

This article is part of our premium content, so be sure to sign up to get this great snapshot of who the DFS Industry Experts recommend.

Here is the NFL Weighted Consensus list for Week 6…

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October 13 by

NFL – Hot Sheet – Week 6

We have reached the point in the season where all of the data for the NFL Hot Sheet is coming from this year’s results now that we have five weeks in the books. Week 6 offers a lot of intrigue, especially in the Primetime Matchups, so it might be a week to play the full slate to get exposure to teams like the Eagles, Chiefs, Patriots and Packers. My DFS plays will still focus in on the 12-game Sunday main slate. Buckle up, I have a feeling this week is going to be a wild one!

I also have a 10-pack of potential Bets that I am looking at for Week 6.

Be sure to sign up for a FREE 7-day trial to read this full article and to get all the other great content here at DailyOverlay.

Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.

So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants

Team QB RB WR1 WR2 WR3 TE D Vegas
Philadelphia Eagles 40 58 57 19 58 45 54 -2
New York Giants 48 36 52 77 55 43 47 44

The Eagles are coming off a home loss the Vikings and will travel to face the Giants on a short week. The Giants pass defense has been solid this season allowing just 237 yards (5th) and 1.2 TD passes (3rd) per game but could have some regression on the way as they rank 22nd DVOA against the pass. The Eagles passing attack has improved since Carson Wentz returned as he has topped 300 yards and two scores in back-to-back weeks. Top targets on Thursday for Wentz should be WR Alshon Jeffrey who has eight or more targets in both of his games this season and has a beatable matchup against shadow coverage from Janoris Jenkins as the Giants rank 27th DVOA against opposing #1 WRs this year. Zach Ertz will get his share of looks but has a reasonable difficult matchup against a Giants defense that hasn’t allowed a TE touchdown this season and ranks 7th DVOA against the position. The Eagles running game will be led by the combo of Wendell Smallwood and Corey Clement with Jay Ajayi out for the season and Darren Sproles still injured. Both backs should find success against the 25th DVOA ranked run defense that has allowed league average production in yardage and rushing scores.

The Giants dropped to 1-4 with a heartbreaking loss to the Panthers on a last second 63-yard FG but will try to regroup quickly at home against the Eagles. The Eagles have a funnel defense that allows plenty of production from opposing passing games with 292 yards (25th) per game but is better in the red zone as they give up just 1.6 TD passes (11th) per game. The best way for Eli Manning to exploit the Eagles is through the WR position where they just happen to have two strong options with Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard who are both viable DFS plays. Saquon Barkley could get bottled up this week against the Eagles 6th ranked DVOA run defense that has allowed a season-low 42 rushing yards and just one rushing score on the year. The Giants could also be careful with Barkley who appears to have avoided a big injury on his final score last week.

Hot Picks:

  • Wendell Smallwood (**)
  • Corey Clement (*)
  • Alshon Jeffery (*)
  • Eli Manning (*)
  • Odell Beckham Jr. (**)
  • Sterling Shepard (**)
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October 11 by