Tuesday night in the Association features a small six-game slate of action. Even with a small slate, the DFS scoring could be high with three of the top six fasted pace teams in play (Nets, Magic, Pacers) and three games with a Vegas total over 217 points. Value options might be a little bit difficult […]
While there are only six games on the Tuesday night NBA slate but there are some intriguing matchups from a DFS perspective with two games featuring totals over 220 points, both of which should be close affairs. As such be sure to get some exposure to the Nets/Magic and Pelicans/Blazers games. It also feels like a breakout spot for the Timberwolves in an up-tempo matchup with the Pacers.
The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid. To get a full rundown of the numbers behind the rating check out my first NBA Hot Sheet article of the season.
Monday night features an eight-game slate of NBA action. The slate overall is not very exciting with half the games featuring a team favored by at least seven points and only one Vegas total over 215 points. The Hot Sheet and my recommendations primarily drive us to that one higher scoring game between the Wizards and the Nuggets with just a 3.5-point spread for a lot of exposure.
The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid. To get a full rundown of the numbers behind the rating, check out my first NBA Hot Sheet article of the season.
Close low scoring games seem to the be the theme of Week 7 according to Vegas for the Sunday 12-game “main” slate on DraftKings with no favorite higher than six points and six of the 12 games with a total under 41 points. Also without much value at RB (like we had last week), the experts instead turn to the QB and TE positions to find value.
In this series, we will publish a consensus of NLF DFS expert’s recommendations that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking for each position. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We also list the projected Ownership Percentages for Cash and GPP leagues to help you identify some players that could be good low-owned contrarian plays. We will include all players that are selected by at least two experts.
This article is part of our premium content, so be sure to sign up to get this great snapshot of who the DFS Industry Experts recommend.
Here is the NFL Weighted Consensus list for Week 7…
The first Friday slate of the NBA season features a solid list of 10 games. There are five games with Vegas totals over 210 tonight (see the new section at the bottom of this article for which teams). We could still see some big DFS scores with pricing still trying to catch up to reality […]
Wow, what a high scoring fantasy night on Wednesday. It took some big DFS scores to pull down GPPs and even cash in 50/50s and Double ups. As a result, there were a lot of players that fared well including my list of 10. Friday night in the Association features a 10-game slate of action […]
Welcome to my first NBA Hot Sheet! For those of you who subscribe and read our NFL content you likely have seen my NFL Hot Sheet. I have transferred the same concept over to the NBA for this season and will publish an NBA Hot Sheet every weekday when there are at least four games […]
Week 6 has five games with a Vegas point spread of nine or greater this week which could bring more game theory into the mix when selecting players for your DFS lineups in Cash and especially in GPPs. The 20 DFS Industry Experts we evaluate supplied a nice mix of value and high-priced studs for us to choose from when building our lineups and there are also some strong options among the players that are expected to be low-owned according to our Projected Ownership Percentages. This is a great week to get a peek at the Weighted Consensus Rankings by signing up for a FREE 7-day trial.
In this series, we will publish a consensus of NLF DFS expert’s recommendations that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking for each position. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We also list the projected Ownership Percentages for Cash and GPP leagues to help you identify some players that could be good low-owned contrarian plays. We will include all players that are selected by at least two experts.
This article is part of our premium content, so be sure to sign up to get this great snapshot of who the DFS Industry Experts recommend.
Here is the NFL Weighted Consensus list for Week 6…
What a difference a week makes. Last week we had a ton of tight Vegas lines. This week there are five games with a favorite of at least nine points. We need to make sure to take this into account when thinking about game flow as it could limit or accentuate certain players in those matchups. This week I also have a strong feeling on a gut call that could payoff in large GPP tournaments if it comes through like I think it can.
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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.
So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…
| Team | QB | RB | WR1 | WR2 | WR3 | TE | D | K | Vegas |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 49 | 49 | 66 | 55 | 52 | 52 | 48 | 51 | 45.5 |
| Carolina Panthers | 58 | 43 | 54 | 54 | 50 | 46 | 50 | 51 | -3 |
The Eagles are coming off a convincing win over the Cardinals last week and will travel on a short week to Carolina to face the Panthers. The Eagles offense has been above average this season but so has the Panthers’ defense ranking 10th DVOA against the pass and 13th against the run. The Eagles passing game led by Carson Wentz should be able to have most of their success utilizing their WR corp with Alshon Jeffrey, in particular, stepping up against a Panthers’ secondary that ranks 25th DVOA against opposing #1 WRs. Zach Ertz may be limited in yardage this week but still has a chance for a score. The Eagles’ ground game will be split between LeGarrette Blount and Corey Clement but will struggle to gain their usual yardage but have a strong chance for a rushing score.
Cam Newton and the Panthers’ offense appear to be getting it going after a sluggish start to the season. Newton should have success through the air against an Eagles’ pass defense that has allowed 299 yards per game (29th) and 1.6 touchdown passes (18th). Both Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess will have some success on the outside piling up yardage with one of them finding the end zone. Christian McCaffrey should be able to grab 5-6 catches for decent yardage and a chance for a red zone score through the air. Jonathan Stewart and the Panthers’ running game will struggle to move the ball against an Eagles’ run defense that has allowed just over 47 yards per game to opposing RBs (2nd) and the Panthers still are without a rushing score by a RB.
Hot Picks:
Welcome to the Weighted Consensus for the PGA where we publish a more in-depth version of the PGA Consensus rankings that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking.
To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We will include all players that are selected by at least two.
Be sure to sign up a FREE 7-day trial of our Premium Content to find out which high-priced Stud and Value options sit atop the expert’s list.
Here is the PGA Weighted Consensus list for the CIMB Classic:
Hard to believe we are already a quarter of the way done with the NFL season as we enter into Week 5 and the start of bye weeks (Falcons, Broncos, Saints, Redskins). According to Vegas, Week 5 should provide a lot of close games with only two games featuring a favorite of more than three points (Eagles, Steelers). However, we could be in for some lower scoring games with only one matchup (Packers/Cowboys) with a Vegas total over 47 points.
The DFS industry experts seem to be in agreement on who the top plays of the week are which could make Cash games very chalky including five players that our algorithm projects to have over 47% ownership. Knowing the chalk is valuable not only for who you might want to roster in Cash games but who you might want to pivot away from in GPPs.
In this series, we will publish a consensus of NLF DFS expert’s recommendations that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking for each position. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We also list the projected Ownership Percentages for Cash and GPP leagues to help you identify some players that could be good low-owned contrarian plays. We will include all players that are selected by at least two experts.
This article is part of our premium content, so be sure to sign up to get this great snapshot of who the DFS Industry Experts recommend.
Here is the NFL Weighted Consensus list for Week 5…