Wednesday features an 11-game MLB night slate. While there are a couple of high-priced aces on the slate, there are also a nice group of mid-priced value options which is where I will focus on my pitcher recommendations for tonight. On the hitting side, I will be considering a couple of stacks for teams that […]
Only two weeks left in the MLB regular season and as the season winds down it becomes increasingly more difficult to pinpoint pitchers to use in DFS. With so many teams either knocked out of the playoffs or already punching their ticket to the post-season it is difficult to trust who will pitch deep into […]
In Week 2 there are two games that rise above the rest when it comes to their Vegas point totals with the Patriots/Saints (56) and Packers/Falcons (55.5) exceeding all other games by at least eight points. This is definitely reflected in this week’s expert consensus rankings with a total of 11 players coming from those two matchups out of 34 recommendations at the skill positions. So, be sure to get some exposure to those matchups.
In this series, we will publish a consensus of NLF DFS expert’s recommendations that takes into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking for each position. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We also list the projected Ownership Percentages for Cash and GPP leagues to help you identify some players that could be good low-owned contrarian plays. We will include all players that are selected by at least two experts.
This article is part of our premium content, so be sure to sign up to get this great snapshot of who the DFS industry experts recommend.
Here is the NFL Weighted Consensus list for Week 2…
Friday’s 14-game slate features a few high-priced Ace pitching options and a game at Coors Field. See who the MLB DFS Industry Experts like the most in today’s consensus rankings.
The Weighted Consensus for the MLB is where we publish a more in-depth version of the MLB Consensus rankings every day that considers each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score for hitters and pitchers is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. This method gives the higher rated experts picks more weight when compiling the overall player rankings for the day. We will include all players that generate a Rank Score of at least 6.0.
The MLB Weighted Consensus article will be part of the premium content every day except Wednesday and the weekend this season. Sign up now for a FREE 7-day trial so you don’t miss any of the content here at DailyOverlay.
Scroll to the bottom of the article for the “Top Stacks” section that lists out the teams with the most hitters being recommended by the experts today. Also, be sure to check each team’s lineup when it is released and watch the weather before finalizing your lineups tonight.
Let’s play ball!
Week 2 of the NFL… oh wait, wrong article. Friday night in the MLB features a 14-game slate that is heavy at the top of the pitching ranks but doesn’t offer much value that doesn’t come with big risks. Luckily, we have some solid hitting stack options that aren’t too expensive that should allow you to pay up for your favorite high-priced ace.
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
Week 1 is always the most difficult to predict as we are reliant on last year’s stats, preseason outlooks and a lot of speculation and coach-speak to derive our analysis. However, as the weeks of the 2017 NFL season unfold we have more relevant data points to analyze and we are able to see with our own eyes what team’s tendencies are and how well players perform in their current situation. With that, the Hot Sheet will get better and better with each passing week of data and my analysis of players and team tendencies. Week 2 may be a pretty clear cut week with two games leading the way with very high Vegas totals and a lot of strong DFS plays to try to fit in.
Numbers in RED are “hot” indicating a good matchup. I will list some “Hot Picks” for each game rated from one to three stars and at the bottom of the article give my Top Plays for the week. Check out my intro in Week 1 for more details on what stats are behind these numbers.
So let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…
| Team | QB | RB | WR1 | WR2 | WR3 | TE | D | K | Vegas |
| Houston Texans | 36 | 45 | 51 | 26 | 65 | 50 | 42 | 34 | 38 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 45 | 58 | 40 | 61 | 37 | 36 | 61 | 47 | -6 |
After a disappointing Week 1 loss at home, the Texans will travel to Cincinnati to face the Bengals on a short week with a rookie QB Deshaun Watson set to make his first start. The Texans offense looked dreadful last week but Watson did provide a little spark off the bench in the second half. However, on a short week look for the Bengals defense to contain the Texans’ passing game. Any passing production will likely come through DeAndre Hopkins as they have limited receiving options and a rookie QB that will force feed the ball to his first read. The Texans’ running game behind Lamar Miller should have a little bit of success and will be leaned on to help take the pressure off of Watson.
The Bengals are also coming off a disappointing home loss as they were shutout by the Ravens. The Bengals offense was equally anemic but with a lot of veteran leaders on offense, they should have a better chance to bounce back quickly. Andy Dalton and the Bengals’ passing attack might still struggle to get much going against a strong Texans’ pass defense. Dump off passes to Giovanni Bernard and Joe Mixon might be the most effective option through the air. However, I expect the Bengals to lean on their running game behind the three-headed backfield of Benard, Mixon and Jeremy Hill to grind out a victory. Unfortunately, the split backfield makes it difficult to strongly recommend any one player but Mixon received the most touches last week so I’ll give him the edge. The Bengals defense is actually the strongest play and probably the only useable option of the entire game at home as a favorite with a low Vegas total going against a rookie QB.
Hot Picks:
Welcome to the Weighted Consensus for the PGA where we publish a more in-depth version of the PGA Consensus rankings that takes into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking.
To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We will include all players that are selected by at least two.
Be sure to sign up a FREE 7-day trial of our Premium Content to find out which high-priced Stud and Value options sit atop the expert’s list.
Here is the PGA Weighted Consensus list for the BMW Championship:
Wednesday night features a 12-game slate of MLB action to dissect. Ace pitching options are quite limited compared to last night as are pitchers that I feel very confident in overall. It could be a night to take a flier on a couple mid-to-low priced options and load up on some bats.
We will provide one piece of free content each weekday during the MLB season. This On the Hill article will be free on Mondays and Tuesdays but will be part of the premium content the rest of the week. Be sure to sign up for our Premium Content so you don’t miss out on any of the content we have here at DailyOverlay.
Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
We have a lot of teams in the MLB that are streaking right now with the Indians winning 19 straight games and the Dodgers on an 11-game losing streak. Coincidently, both of these teams have their Ace on the hill for Tuesday night’s 14-games slate with Corey Kluber and Clayton Kershaw, respectively. Both carry a […]
Finally, Week 1 of the 2017 NFL season! This year we will only publish our patented “Weighted Consensus Rankings” that includes consensus rankings from 20 DFS experts and Projected Ownership Percentages.
In this series, we will publish a consensus of NLF DFS expert’s recommendations that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking for each position. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. We also list the projected Ownership Percentages for Cash and GPP leagues to help you identify some players that could be good low-owned contrarian plays. We will include all players that have a Rank Score of at least 6.0.
This article is part of our premium content, so be sure to sign up to get this great snapshot of the entire DFS NFL communities thoughts for the week. This week I have exposed the QB section so that everyone can get a glimpse of the content and format.
Here is the NFL Weighted Consensus list for Week 1 that includes picks from 20 DFS experts with weighting and ownership based on 2016 DailyOverlay scores and data:
| Name | Pos | Team | Price | Cash | GPP | Rank Score |
| Carson Wentz | PHI | QB | $ 5,300 | 17% | 12% | 30.90 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | QB | $ 7,000 | 12% | 10% | 29.30 |
| Marcus Mariota | TEN | QB | $ 6,800 | 7% | 7% | 21.13 |
| Carson Palmer | ARI | QB | $ 6,000 | 9% | 9% | 20.97 |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | QB | $ 6,900 | 5% | 6% | 18.00 |
| Cam Newton | CAR | QB | $ 7,100 | 3% | 4% | 12.30 |
| Brian Hoyer | SF | QB | $ 5,100 | 4% | 5% | 12.23 |
| Eli Manning | NYG | QB | $ 5,600 | 3% | 4% | 7.27 |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | QB | $ 6,900 | 2% | 3% | 6.23 |
I’ll admit it is hard to focus on baseball with the NFL kicking off last night and this weekend. However, I still crunched the numbers and performed my analysis for Friday’s 15-game MLB slate. And in the end, I like where my research took me as I feel quite confident in how I came to my conclusions on which pitchers and stacks to recommend. If you are not currently a subscriber to DailyOveraly, now is the perfect time to come on board with MLB, PGA and of course NFL content to consume including my over 5,000-word breakdown including every game for NFL Week 1 in the Hot Sheet.
We will provide one piece of free content each weekday during the MLB season. This On the Hill article will be free on Mondays and Tuesdays but will be part of the premium content the rest of the week. Be sure to sign up for our Premium Content so you don’t miss out on any of the content we have here at DailyOverlay.
Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
Week 1 of the 2017 NFL season has finally arrived! Enough offseason stories of players in the best shape of their life and preseason performances that consist of almost no snaps from the actual starters. The last two season I have written a weekly Offensive Tendencies column for the NFL DFS season. Last year a couple of times I experimented with a different approach using a “Hot Sheet” format. I enjoyed writing the Hot Sheet style of article and feel it give a better view of which situations and players to use in DFS lineups. So, for the 2017 NFL Season, I am transitioning my weekly column to the “Hot Sheet”.
I will still analyze each game and provide a write-up of how I expect each game to play out based on the game script using the ratings I have compiled for each position. The charts below show the rating for each position per team based on each team’s own offensive performance and their opponent’s defensive performance for a variety of factors over the season and last five weeks (Note that the first few weeks will still also rely on last season’s stats):
All of these stats and rankings are compiled, weighted and averaged to come up with a single “rating” for each team by position for this week. Numbers in RED are “hot” indicating a good matchup. I will list some “Hot Picks” for each game rated from one to three stars and at the bottom of the article give my Top Plays for the week.
I’ll give a peek at the Hot Sheet with a free look at the Thursday night matchup between the Chiefs and the Patriots. To see the entire article including the Top Plays and all the great content here at DailyOverlay sign up the Premium Subscription for just $9.99/mo or a FREE 7-day trial.
So let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…
| Team | QB | RB | WR1 | WR2 | WR3 | TE | D | K | Vegas |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 42 | 34 | 47 | 30 | 45 | 43 | 35 | 40 | 48.5 |
| New England Patriots | 57 | 62 | 49 | 37 | 32 | 60 | 38 | 55 | -9 |
The Chiefs will have their work cut out for them as almost a double-digit underdog on the road against the defending Super Bowl champs. The Chiefs could see a low overall number of plays as they ranked near the bottom of the league in offensive plays while the Patriots also limited plays by opposing offenses. The Chiefs’ passing game will likely have the most success with underneath passes to Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill near the line of scrimmage. Hunt can especially have success in the passing game against a Patriots’ defense that allowed the second most receptions and third most yardage to opposing RBs last season. The running game will have difficulty moving the ball against one of the best rush defenses in the league and have limited opportunities if they trail as expected.
While the Chiefs may be limited in their number of plays, the Patriots’ offense should have plenty of opportunities ranking in the top seven in plays last year, while the Chiefs’ defense allowed the fifth most plays to the opposition. The Patriots passing game should have success early in the game while they build a lead. Rob Gronkowski should be able to stretch the field down the middle for some long gains. When they enter the red zone look for Tom Brady to look to the backs out of the backfield such as James White for a receiving score. The WRs should be able to gain some yardage but might be limited near the end zone. Working with a lead in the second half the Patriots will lean on Mike Gillislee to churn out some yardage but he could get stuffed near the goal line against a stingy red zone rush defense.
Hot Picks: