Entries by Stephen Monahan

MLB Value Index – August 9

Today’s theme is all about hot streaks.

We have a 10-game slate this evening (5 in the early slate, but we aren’t focusing there).

Pitching on this slate is dreadful. The fact that Gio Gonzalez is the top-priced pitcher tells you all you need to know about the slate.

The Index has been on a run of bad pitcher takes, so today is not the slate to revive picking a pitcher or two.

Instead, we will be focusing on guys who are stroking it at the plate. And no, Giancarlo Stanton will definitely not be on this list. Not because he’s not worth play, but because people are going to be all over him today. I know he’s facing a lefty, but for me, BvP has me hopping off today.

At any rate, here’s today’s picks. We will get back to rankings on Friday when we are back to a full slate of action.

Freddie Freeman – 1B – Atlanta Braves – $5,100

Analysis: Zach Eflin was a great matchup for Freeman last night and Freeman went yard. Jerad Eickhoff is a better pitcher, but the matchup is still solid for Freeman. Eickhoff has been awful against lefties, allowing a .356 wOBA, a 1.36 HR/9, a 5.46 xFIP and a 33% hard contact rate. Freeman is the best RH masher on his team and SunTrust Park was built for Freeman and his lefty power. Freeman also has BvP against Eickhoff – 6-for-18, 1 double, 2 HRs, 4 walks, 2 steals. Oh, and Free Money Freddie has 8 hits in his last 6 games.

Travis Shaw – 3B – MIlwaukee Brewers – $4,400

Analysis: The Brewers are going to be the chalky stack of the night, but rightfully so. They get to head home to Miller Park and take on the ghost of Bartolo Colon. While Eric Thames is a wild card for me (but cheap and likely chalky), it’s Travis Shaw and another guy below that I have my eye on for multiple lineups. Shaw is this team’s best left-handed power bat. And against lefties this season, Colon has allowed a .374 wOBA, a 1.65 HR/9 rate, a 5.66 xFIP and 40% hard contact rate. Shaw is starting to warm up again with hits in his last four games.

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August 9 by

MLB Value Index – August 8

Today we are back to a full-slate of action in the majors.

We have fifteen games, one pitcher I want to use and tons of gas cans.

I think pitching is a mess outside of Chris Sale, so we all probably need a little luck on our side with who we choose as SP2 tonight.

I am not beating around the bush tonight so let’s get to tonight’s Index options.

 

Wil Myers – 1B – San Diego Padres – $3,900

Analysis: Sal Romano’s days are numbered. He’s the Reds’ starting pitcher tonight against the surging Padres. Myers is a reverse-splits hitter facing a guy who allows a .367 wOBA this season. Myers has a .327 woOBA, a .216 ISO and a 37% hard contact rate. This game is at the Great American Smallpark, too, so the Padres might be a sneaky option as a stack tonight.

Daniel Murphy – 2B – Washington Nationals – $5,200

Analysis: Will he or will Rick Grimes not play tonight. We were in this spot last week, and Murphy was not in the lineup at nearly $1,000 cheaper. It was nauseating. Will he be in the lineup tonight? Will the Nationals play? Is there rain in the forecast? I digress though as Murphy owns Vance Worley with a .545 average (12-for-22) with 2 doubles and a triple with 2 walks.

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August 8 by

MLB Value Index – August 7

Today is the day that marks the end of summer…for me.

I survived the bachelor dad life last week, but it’s back-to-school for me today.

It was a great summer. Lots of DFS success, getting to spend time with my family and watch my daughter mold into a sharp, little tiny human. She’s so much different now than she was when school let out back in May. It’s crazy.

I am excited to return to the world of education. Not only does it signify a new beginning, it also means football season is right around the corner, and I can’t wait.

Seriously, I am about ready for baseball season to end. When the Rangers are abysmal and you grind DFS baseball daily, change is always welcome.

But I still enjoy playing baseball DFS of course, I am just ready for something new and the NFL is just so great that I can’t wait to get my hands dirty, my feet wet and any other figurative cliche you can name regarding getting started on something.

And tonight looks like a fun slate. It’s only 7 games, no Coors and two games in two ballparks that are considered hitter’s parks. We also have a few aces to choose from and lots of gas cans.

We don’t have a full slate, so no rankings this go around.

I feel like tonight is another slate where not a lot sticks out and need to see what lineups look like before making any huge decisions. I like to have a core of players to build my lineups around, or as many people call them – one-offs.

But there aren’t a lot of one-offs at multiple positions that I am in love with at the moment. There are quite a few first basemen I like, but I am not going to recommend them all because not all will make noise. Instead, I will incorporate them as part of team stacks tonight.

Let’s get after it!

 

Brent Suter – SP – Milwaukee Brewers – $6,400

Analysis: So is it that time that I finally buy into someone and they shit the bed and implode? I am hoping that is not the case with Mr. Suter, who has been excellent since his callup. Tonight he might get quite the watered-down lineup against the Twins. It already looks like Sano won’t be in the lineup and Dozier was removed this weekend for light-headedness, etc. so he also may not be playing. That leaves a lot of scrubs for this crafty lefty who has held RH bats in check with a .307 wOBA, a 26% hard contact rate and a 0.75 HR/9 rate. He strikes out RH bats at an 8.35 clip and lefties at a 6.59 K/9.

Kris Bryant – 3B – Chicago Cubs – $5,300

Analysis: What? Are you surprised? If you follow the Index, Bryant is a must-play against lefties, especially mediocre to bat ones. Who is on the mound tonight for the Giants against the Cubs? Matt Moore. Is he a lefty? Yes. Is he a mediocre pitcher? Yes. Moore allows a .331 wOBA and 34% hard contact rate to RH bats. If you want to get adventurous, Moore has been awful against lefties too and Rizzo demolishes them. I like Rizzo a lot, but he will be a guy I use to stack with, not play one offs

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August 7 by

MLB Value Index – August 4

If you have been reading the Index this week, you know that I am bachelor dad this week as the wife is out of town for a work conference. I am happy to say, that so far, my daughter and I have made it just fine the first two days. I hope this isn’t a […]

August 4 by

MLB Value Index – August 3

Well last night’s pitching was a disaster. Thanks Keuchel and Moore. I guess something isn’t right with Mr. Keuchel, so he’s off my radar until I see him reign it back in. As for Matt Moore. He’s dead to me in DFS from here on out. Tonight we have a 10-game slate, bigger than most […]

August 3 by

MLB Value Index – August 2

Well single dad life begins today…

Temporarily of course.

The wife is leaving for a makeup conference until Sunday. It’s the first time she will have been away from our 20-month-old daughter for a longer period of time than a full workday.

It will be the first time I’ve had the responsibility of taking care of the little toot by myself for that long of a time frame.

Hopefully the wife has a great time, and me and my little sugar bear will stay busy enough so that she won’t miss her mom too much.

I am nervous about that most of all. I do not know what to expect of her behavior in the coming days. Will Tod-Zilla come out and wreak havoc on my house and patience?

Or will she really even notice?

Maybe it will be a mixture of both, but the rest of this week looks like I will be dialing down on the DFS baseball volume.

Some 3-entry max tournaments and arcade mode lineups might be all I have time for.

But I will still be focused on who the right plays are heading into the slate and Single Dad Player Recommendations Take 1 starts tonight.

It’s almost a full slate of action, 12 games to be exact.

We have some loaded pitching options at the top and a couple of value plays. Last night’s pitching options were loaded and something very, very unfortunate happened to almost all of the top-tier options. It was pretty wild. I faded everyone at the top and went with the Shark and Berrios. DraftKings’ pricing yesterday, and today even, really make it feel like we should be paying down for pitching with all of the elevated prices for a lot of hitting options. Luckily, the top guy on the slate isn’t very expensive…

Catchers

  1. Yasmani Grandal
  2. Welington Castillo
  3. Brian McCann
  4. Yadier Molina
  5. Matt Wieters

First Base

  1. Freddie Freeman
  2. Josh Bell
  3. Mark Reynolds
  4. Mike Napoli
  5. Hanley Ramirez

Second Base

  1. Daniel Murphy
  2. Robinson Cano
  3. Jose Altuve
  4. Jonathan Schoop
  5. Neil Walker

Third Base

  1. Jake Lamb
  2. Rafael Devers
  3. Adrian Beltre
  4. Travis Shaw
  5. Mike Moustakas

Shortstop

  1. Corey Seager
  2. Xander Bogaerts
  3. Francisco Lindor
  4. Paul deJong
  5. Jean Segura

Outfield

  1. Mike Trout
  2. Bryce Harper
  3. Charlie Blackmon
  4. Carlos Gonzalez
  5. Jay Bruce

Pitchers

  1. Dallas Keuchel
  2. Jake Arrieta
  3. Zack Godley
  4. Matt Moore
  5. J.C. Ramirez

Top Stacks

  1. Colorado Rockies
  2. Washington Nationals
  3. Seattle Mariners
  4. New York Mets
  5. Houston Astros

 

Dallas Keuchel – SP – Houston Astros – $10,500

Analysis: Here we have the No. 1 arm on the slate and I will go to war with him. He came back off the DL and subsequently sucked. That’s fine. We get him at a reduced price because of it and we get him at home, where he thrives and dominates. Keuchel checks all of the boxes tonight for me. He’s facing a Rays team that struggles against lefties, striking out 26% of the time and are 23rd in team wOBA against lefties. Keuchel also has strong BvP against most of the Rays’ bats as they are 18-for-76 with 3 RBIs, 3 walks and 22 strikeouts. We also don’t know if they will have Souza, who was a late scratch Tuesday night. At home this season, Keuchel is 4-0 in 5 starts, has given up just 4 ER in those starts and has struck out 32 batters.

Josh Bell – 1B – Pittsburgh Pirates – $3,800

Analysis: I don’t like a lot of first basemen tonight, but Josh Bell stands out as an awesome tournament flier and arcade mode play. Why is that? Because no one will play him and he has one of the best matchups on the board against Cincy’s Robert Stephenson. Bell crushes right-handed pitching, but here are Stephenson’s numbers allowed to lefties this season (albeit limited innings) – .443 wOBA, 3.09 HR/9 rate, 52.6% hard contact rate.

Cody Bellinger – 1B/OF – Los Angeles Dodgers – $4,500

Analysis: Can we break the Value Index curse???? Every time a player has hit on the Index and I recommend them the next night, it’s a flop. I really think it happens here, but I am going with the smart play anyway. Bellinger is WAY underpriced again today, even $200 cheaper (Trap City!). He faces Julio Teheran who is a lefty’s wet dream at SunTrust Park. Teheran has allowed a .344 wOBA, a 1.84 HR/9 rate and a 36.8% hard contact rate to lefties this season. At SunTrust, Teheran has been dreadful, sporting a 1-7 record, a 7.05 ERA, and 41 ER in 51 IP. That’s just insane. By the way, you can pair up Belly with the astronomically expensive Corey Seager who has a HR in each of his three games against Teheran in his career.

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August 2 by

MLB Value Index – August 1

The trade deadline has come and gone.

My boy Yu Darvish is no longer a Ranger, shipped to the Dodgers for a handful of prospects.

A few other mid-tier to minor transactions took place, but nothing more noteworthy than the departure of Yu from Texas.

It’s weird to think Darvish won’t be pitching for the Rangers. He’s been a great pitcher to watch since he came to the states.

He is a free agent after this season and I am hopeful the Rangers can re-sign him in the offseason. It would be a fantastic deal for Texas. Trade him and get a bunch of prospects and get him back. I will be interested to see how that storyline plays out.

But for now, I think the transition from a heat-infested, outdoor venue in an AL ballpark to the National League is going to do wonders for Yu and his production the rest of the way. I hope we see a deflated price tag in his first start at home for the Dodgers.

Sonny Gray to the Yankees was the other big deal to go down, and I think that’s a solid addition for the Yanks, especially if Sonny is fully back to his old self.

In case you missed it, some other notable trades include Francisco Liriano to the Astros, Tim Beckham to the Orioles, Alex Avila to the Cubs and then some relievers went here and there.

But now it’s time to look forward as we tackle today’s slate of DFS games.

It’s a full slate, 15 games.

As I was scrolling the pitcher list, entering them into FanGraphs, I had one thought – “holy shit.”

There are a ton of options on today’s slate. It’s ridiculous. Counting from the top on DraftKings, it took until the 15th pitcher, C.C. Sabathia, for me to say “No, I am not using him.”

And no, I am not effing using C.C. The list doesn’t end at him. There’s some value below him as well.

Anyway, tons of pitching options tonight AND we have a game at Coors. It’s great slate and it’s slates like this that truly make DFS fun.

How about some rankings?

Catcher

  1. Buster Posey
  2. Willson Contreras
  3. Gary Sanchez
  4. Jonathan Lucroy (if he’s in the lineup)
  5. Miguel Montero (if he’s in the lineup)

First Base

  1. Cody Bellinger
  2. Ryan Zimmerman
  3. Chris Davis
  4. Paul Goldschmidt
  5. Freddie Freeman

Second Base

  1. Robinson Cano
  2. Neil Walker
  3. Rougned Odor
  4. Ian Kinsler
  5. Jose Peraza

Third Base

  1. Kris Bryant
  2. Kyle Seager
  3. Nolan Arenado
  4. Mike Moustakas
  5. Josh Donaldson

Shortstop

  1. Trevor Story
  2. Corey Seager
  3. Didi Gregorius
  4. Jean Segura
  5. Xander Bogaerts

Outfield

  1. Aaron Judge
  2. J.D. Martinez
  3. Nelson Cruz
  4. Yoenis Cespedes
  5. Mike Trout

Pitchers

  1. Max Scherzer
  2. Jose Berrios
  3. Jeff Samardzija
  4. Jameson Taillon
  5. Aaron Nola

Top Stacks

  1. New York Mets
  2. Seattle Mariners
  3. Los Angeles Dodgers
  4. New York Yankees
  5. Colorado Rockies/Texas Rangers

 

Chris Davis – 1B – Baltimore Orioles – $4,200

Analysis: A fly-ball pitcher in a warm environment and a hitter’s park is not a good combination. That’s what Ian Kennedy is facing tonight on the road against the Orioles. Kennedy has allowed a 45% hard contact rate to lefties this season and is giving up 1.89 HR/9. Davis is stroking the ball right now as well, notching 7 hits in his last 7 games and 5 walks. He’s scored double-digit fantasy points in his last 3 games. A hot Crush Davis is a dangerous Crush Davis.

Robinson Cano – 2B – Seattle Mariners – $3,700

Analysis: Is DraftKings serious with some of their pricing today? Rougned Odor is above $5K? Mazara, Brett Gardner, Eduardo Nunez all $5K and above too! Then you have this price for Cano. He’s going to be chalky, but only because Nick Martinez is a friggin troll will I have lineups without Cano. However, he’s the best 2B on the board and he’s cheap. He’s going into a wonderful hitting environment in Texas where it’s hot and humid. Against Martinez, Cano is 2-for-9 with a home run and 2 walks. Martinez is ultra generous to lefties, sporting a .383 wOBA and a 1.98 HR/9 rate this season.

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August 1 by

MLB Value Index – July 31

One of the best days of the year is upon us, it’s also a we need to really follow closely concerning our DFS lineups.

Today is the MLB trade deadline, final at 3 p.m. central.

While we still get a few hours to adjust lineups and our thinking for DFS should a major trade or two go down, that trade or two could really swing a slate.

Sonny Gray is slated to start tonight against San Fran. If he’s not traded, he likely will be popular. If traded, we would have no idea who is the starter and should it be a scrub, the Giants could be a sneaky play.

It’s hard to really recommend a lot of players because of the deadline and couple that with the terrible pitching options and no lineups, I am keeping the list shorter.

No rankings either, only 8 games, so let’s get to it!

Andrew Benintendi – OF – Boston Red Sox – $3,500

Analysis: So I don’t know about you, but I don’t buy into Mike Clevinger. Maybe I would if he were cheaper, but not against the Red Sox on the road in Fenway. Because of Clevinger’s success, I am guess that’s why Benintendi seems far too cheap tonight. I know he hasn’t had the breakout season everyone was hoping for, but he hasn’t been awful either. He still presents upside and who knows if he could go on a substantial offensive streak. He’s been hot recently and Clevinger has been susceptible to left-handed bats, giving up a 1.91 HR/9 and a 33% hard contact rate to lefties. Fenway doesn’t help with home runs with lefties, but it’s still a hitter’s venue and Benintendi can find the gaps for extra bases.

Kendrys Morales – 1B – Toronto Blue Jays – $4,000

Analysis: Get ready because I am loving the Blue Jays tonight and it makes me ill. We have a bad offense against a bad pitcher, but I will take the offense over the bad pitcher in this situation because I always stack against James Shields. I especially stack against them with lefties. Morales is one of the few power lefties on this team unfortunately (the other also a first baseman) but Shields has been dreadful against left-handed hitters. If you look at Shields’ BvP, it may seem he’s had some really good success against the players on this team, however, much of those numbers are pre-2014. The Blue Jays are very much in play.. Oh yea, since 2014, Morales is 3-for-7 with an RBI and two walks.

Luis Severino – SP – New York Yankees – $11,900

Analysis: It’s apparent that Severino is one of the safest options on the board tonight. The Tigers can seem scary and showed that against Lance McCullers on Sunday, but their lineup is not as strong as it once was now that J.D. Martinez is gone (and who knows who else might get traded?). The Tigers’ are right-handed heavy, but that’s good for us because Severino has been lights out against righties this season. Against RH bats, Severino has posted a .264 wOBA against, a 10.88 K/9 rate, a 0.75 HR/9 rate, a 26.5% hard contact rate and a 2.79 xFIP this season. The Tigers, against RH pitching, sport a 21.8% strikeout rate and are 23rd in team wOBA.

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July 31 by

MLB Value Index – July 28

I really hate slates where I feel I can’t spend all of my salary. That was my approach last night. I didn’t want Lester and Archer seemed too expensive for a road trip to Yankee Stadium. I rostered Godley and Flexen mostly and had some hedge stacks of course, but not a lot of shares […]

July 28 by
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MLB Value Index – July 27

So I’ve done something that I’ve been wanting to do for awhile. It was all my idea as I felt it is just necessary to separate daily fantasy sports and personal political opinions. The two shouldn’t ever be brought together when you are publicly representing a company you are employed by. Not that my employer, […]

July 27 by

MLB Value Index – July 26 (Evening)

Jose Altuve has been something else.

Batting .500 in the month of July and after Monday’s performance, he put up 10 multi-hit games in his last 14.

Goldy, Cano, Springer, Correa and Rendon all have seven games of 3 or more hits. Altuve has 8 in July alone.

Correa gets hurt, Springer gets hurt, Altuve is still producing. The Astros are still winning.

The Astros are something else, and Altuve is playing on another plane right now. It will be interesting to see how long he can keep this pace up.

It will be interesting to see what moves, if any, the ‘Stros make come the trade deadline and if they can get to and win the World Series.

They are my pick.

As for tonight, we have a 10-game slate to focus on. The early consists of just 4-5 games, so we aren’t going to tackle that one.

Pitching looks too easy on this slate, so I hope that doesn’t come back to bite me. There’s one stack that really stands out and will be mega chalk, and it may be the way to go tonight.

This is not a full slate, so no rankings today. But let’s get to it!

Anthony Rizzo – 1B – Chicago Cubs – $5,200

Analysis: Yep, you guessed it, the Cubs are going to be ultra chalky today because they draw James Shields. I don’t think I need to tell you how bad James Shields is against lefties, but in case you were wondering – .442 wOBA, 3.98 HR/9, .258 BABIP, 8.03 xFIP and a 30% hard contact rate. It’s not like he’s getting unlucky, he flat out sucks and is tossing BP to his opponents. Rizzo, Happ, Zobrist and Hayward are all in play, but it’s Rizzo who draws my attention. You have to pay up for him, but he’s worth the money in a matchup he already is 3-for-8 with 2 doubles and 2 walks against.

Jorge Bonifacio – OF – Kansas City Royals – $4,000

Analysis: The Royals take on Anibal Sanchez tonight, and while Anibal has some solid BvP numbers against most of the Royals, it’s Bonifacio that really stands out. Against RH pitching this season, Boni has hit 10 HRs to go along with a .342 wOBA and a .199 ISO. Sanchez is a reverse-splits pitcher and in 2017 against righties, he’s allowed a .394 wOBA, a 2.77 HR/9 and a 48% hard contact.

Jake Arrieta – SP – Chicago Cubs – $9,300

Analysis: Jake Arrieta hasn’t been Jake Arrieta this season. At some point, I think he turns it around and maybe today is one of those starts where we see some of that old form. The White Sox are one of the worst teams in baseball against RH pitching, striking out 22% of the time while being in the bottom 5 in team wOBA. I hope the wind isn’t blowing too much in Chicago, that would be my only worry here.

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July 26 by

MLB Value Index – July 25

Boy I hate to see the big boys go down. Clayton Kershaw, especially. He was placed on the 10-day DL on Monday and will be out 4-6 weeks. He’s the best pitcher in baseball and we don’t get to watch him pitch or use him in daily fantasy for awhile. In one of my season-long […]

July 25 by