Welcome back to another edition of the Value Index! Today we get another 15-game slate to tackle, our second one in as many days. While this slate doesn’t have the stud pitchers to choose from, there are plenty of bats in great spots we can exploit! To break that down vaguely, we have the Nats […]
The Blue Jays continue to troll me. Pump in money thinking you will catch the Blue Jays on heater early in the season;…lose. Basically go all in on Severino Monday against one of the worst offenses in baseball (the Blue Jays)…lose. It’s not fun losing, especially in that way. I mean, Ryan Goins… Anyway, rant […]
It’s a new month for Major League Baseball. We will see some of April’s hot teams cool off and some of the cold teams heat up. While we will see some changes in teams over the next month, the following question remains the same… Who are we pairing up with Clayton Kershaw tonight? Yes, it’s Kershaw […]
Tonight we have a full complement of games to sift through as April comes to a close. We have some solid aces on the mount tonight, including Max Scherzer and Jake Arrieta, but we also have a slew of gas cans to look into. The most intriguing game on paper is the Rockies visiting Arizona, […]
Welcome into today’s edition of the Value index! There’s one theme for me today, Code word: Diamondback. We have a split slate of action, but for our grading purposes here at Daily Overlay I will focus on a couple of recommendations for the evening slate. There are only four games tonight in Major League Baseball. […]
So it turns out, Clayton Kershaw at $14,400 was not exactly the right play. Three games postpone. Then when you thought Coors might not play because of weather, you fade the players you liked *cough* Carlos Gonzalez *cough*. It goes off. Chris Owings is 60 percent owned in cash games. The night turns south, you reevaluate […]
Tonight, Clayton Kershaw is $14,400 on DraftKings. $14,400! I have been playing daily fantasy baseball for more than 3 years and I don’t recall ever seeing a pitcher priced this high. You can pair him with Bryce Harper and have about $30K left for a second pitcher and 7 more positions for an average remaining […]
Welcome back to another week of the Value Index. It’s the last week of April and May is upon us. April showers bring May flowers? That’s the saying right? Perhaps April has been tough on you for baseball DFS, but perhaps the process, the focus, the grind all leads you to a bouquet […]
My apologies for being out yesterday, the past two nights and my health were awful. I can’t explain the pain I was in Wednesday night, but I was miserable. But I’ve seemed to have recovered and can get back to functioning again. Tonight we have a 15-game slate, the second of the week. I am […]
With a sample size large enough to reflect back on this season, we are going to change things up a bit with the Value Index.
The Index worked very well during basketball season – 5 positions, 1 at each position, plus it’s basketball. But for baseball, I don’t think picking one person at every position works as well.
For me, sometimes I don’t really know who I like at a position until an hour, 30 minutes or even 10 minutes before lock. Unfortunately, that doesn’t always translate well when making picks and writing about them 20 hours before.
So to provide better selections/recommendations, I am going to drop the “pick at every position” format and just relay to you the core guys I like for a slate. These are guys that I will have the most exposure to in any format because if I really like a player, I play them.
I hope this little change helps you even more and we see better results moving forward.
Now, on to today’s slate of games. We have 11 to sift through today and boy do we have some studs manning the mounds.
That segues into who I won’t be making an official pick tonight – Clayton Kershaw. Why? Because you already know about his greatness. He’s your cash game guy tonight. There is another stud on this slate I love outside of Kershaw, but we will get to him shortly.
Today is another premium day for the Index, so you will get some freebies. But if you want to view all of the content, you will have to sign up for our 7-day free trial or join us!
Good luck tonight!
Madison Bumgarner – SP – San Francisco Giants – $11,700
Analysis: This matchup has me licking my chops a lot like MadBum above (haven’t I made this joke before?). Anyway, I think Bumgarner is a great tournament pivot tonight off of Kershaw. He is on the road against the Royals, and I certainly feel there are a lot of people that will be see Royals and think this is not a good spot. But as we dig deeper, this is a great spot for the second best pitcher in the majors. Against lefties this season, the Royals have 2 extra base hits. Two. Yes, they are due for some regression, but the Royals just don’t have a lot of great RH bats to combat a power lefty pitcher. There’s enormous K upside here, too as the Royals have struck out 26% of the time versus southpaws and Bumgarner has an 11.65 K/9 rate against LH bats and a 9.59 K/9 rate against RH bats since 2015.
Jake Lamb – 3B – Arizona Diamondbacks – $3,900
Analysis: I am not afraid to use this play in Petco Park. Chacin hurled a gem in his only home start this season, but that was to the Giants, not the second best team against RH pitching in the majors. Lefties are in play in this game for sure and that leads me to Jake Lamb, a guy who is really starting to come into his own this year. In Lamb’s career, he has a .229 ISO versus RH pitching. In 2017, it’s a .305 ISO with a .505 wOBA and a 219 wRC+. The power is massive and Chacin allows a 34.9% hard contact rate to lefties since 2015. Lamb comes in at a cheap price and is ultra reliable.
Hello there everyone, we are into the third week of the MLB season and already we are starting to see trends throughout each team in the league.
The Brewers continue to scorch the Earth with their offense while the Blue Jays continue to eat dirt and are on a losing streak they can’t wait to end (will tonight be the night?).
Pitching has been all over the place unless your name is Clayton Kershaw, Madison Bumgarner or Max Scherzer. Does anyone else feel like pitching has been rather unreliable to start the season?
I do.
I mean I easily cashed two cash game lineups with ease last week with negative points from a pitcher on DraftKings, incluing a -16 spot from Steven Wright. That shouldn’t happen.
Nevertheless, I hope you aren’t ailing in the first couple of weeks of the season. And if you are, just try to remember this is baseball and things always come around for teams as they get hot while others start to incur struggles. Teams that are struggling now are getting their struggles out now.
Tonight we have the first of two 15-game slates this week. The other comes Friday. Tonight will be the first 15-game slate of the season and it certainly should be interesting. We have a couple of stud aces toeing the rubber tonight and lots of cheap pitching options, one of which I expect to be ultra chalk (and he’s a member of the Index today).
Before we get to picks, today is another premium day, so you will get a couple of freebie picks, but then to see the rest and other premium content options on our site, you can sign up for a free 7-day trial or join for a low monthly rate.
Let’s get after it shall we?
Luis Severino – SP – New York Yankees – $6,500
Analysis: Welcome to the value chalk pitcher of the slate. Luis Severino has filthy pitches and has shown a ton of K upside so far this season. It just so happens he is facing arguably the worst offensive team in baseball – the Chicago White Sox. Ervin Santana just lit this team up and now it is Severino’s turn. The White Sox strike out at a 24.7% clip so far this season and have a measly 25% hard contact rate against RH pitching. Severino has shown to be a reverse splits pitcher early in his career, but with his ability to rack up Ks, Severino offers a solid floor with a lot of upside at his price tonight.
Manny Machado – 3B – Baltimore Orioles – $4,900
Analysis: A lot of people like to roster Manny Machado when he is up against lefty starters. I won’t argue the thought process behind it, but Machado is much more effective against RH pitching. The Orioles are all over my radar tonight, facing 40-year-old batting practice pitcher Bronson Arroyo, who, you guessed it, is a reverse splits pitcher over the past three season. Arroyo has been lit up for 11 ER in two starts this season and the gauntlet continues tonight against the Orioles, a top-5 team against RH pitching so far. As for Machado, he leads the team in wOBA against RH pitching at .366. He owns a .226 ISO and a 33.2% hard contact rate. This game is at the Great American Ballpark, and is one of the best hitter’s venues in the majors. The Orioles SHOULD not have any trouble scoring runs against Arroyo and his .403 wOBA and 36.4% hard contact rate against RH pitching.
Welcome back to the DailyOverlay Value Index for Monday, April 17! Hope everyone had a great holiday weekend, stuffed yourself silly, found you and egg or two and lined your pockets with cash over the weekend with DFS baseball.
Tonight we have a solid 9-game slate to talk about. While the pitching options aren’t as strong as they were Friday (and boy was I wrong about Porcello, and I didn’t have enough Kershaw), there are a lot of great places to attack pitchers with bats.
Danny Salazar, Robbie Ray and John Lackey are the three highest priced pitchers on today’s slate. After that, the bottom kind of drops off. I haven’t made up my mind on a value SP2 yet (and yes I will pair all three of the top pitching options together), Brandon McCarthy and Jaime Garcia seem to be the first couple of guys that pop off my radar. I hope we all figure it out and take down this slate!
Remember, today, Tuesday and Wednesday are premium days for the Index. You can bypass those three days and get access to all other premium content this week by signing up for a 7-day FREE trial run. I will offer a couple of free selections each day, but you will have to make the decision from there if you choose to see the rest.
Good luck to you! I love this slate!
Freddie Freeman – 1B – Atlanta Braves – $4,600
Analysis: Freddie didn’t pay off for me Sunday against Trevor Plodding Cahill, so does as you should in daily fantasy basketball and send that damn bucket down the well again. It is said that Atlanta’s new stadium is going to play more to hitter’s favor, but that remains to be seen as we are just two weeks into the season. Freddie Freeman instantly pops off the page to me in a great spot against the aging, flyball pitcher in Jered Weaver. Surprisingly, Weaver handled the Rockies in Coors very well. But now he gets the Braves and I’ll be interested to see if people go to Weaver as an SP2 tonight. God I hope they do! Freeman has been a model of consistency against RH pitching in his career. Since 2013, Freeman sports a ridiculous .401 wOBA, a 41% hard contact rate and a .233 ISO. Freeman is coming in with hits in 8 of his last 9 games. Weaver owns a .336 wOBA against lefties since 2014 and allows a 1.46 HR/9 rate. His hard contact allowed to lefties is a shade under 30%, but he’s a fly ball pitcher who will serve up BP to power hitters like Freeman.
Martin Prado – 2B – Miami Marlins – $3,300
Analysis: Jose Altuve, Brian Dozier (Team BvP), Logan Forsythe….those are all second basemen that are in excellent spots tonight. BUT there’s one guy who almost outweighs them all – Martin Prado! Expected to return to the lineup Monday, Prado and the Marlins (my favorite stack of the night) are taking on the Mariners and the Little Mermaid at Safeco. A nice little stat I learned about Safeco Field this weekend was how the left-field fences were moved in last year. What once was a favorable pitcher’s park, was a top-5 in homeruns in 2016. Hmm…I like those odds tonight. Another interesting stat. Prado is Top-10 in the majors against southpaws with a .401 wOBA since 2014. That’s better than Jose Altuve and Brian Dozier, just to name a few. He’s not better against lefties than someone else on this list, and if you sign up for our free trial or subscribe, you will find out who that is (insert wink emoji). Oh, I forgot to mention that Miranda owns a 2.21 HR/9 rate against RH bats and is allowing 35.6% hard contact rate (and he’s an extreme flyball pitcher).