It’s a new month for Major League Baseball.
We will see some of April’s hot teams cool off and some of the cold teams heat up.
While we will see some changes in teams over the next month, the following question remains the same…
Who are we pairing up with Clayton Kershaw tonight?
Yes, it’s Kershaw at home time and he’s my official unofficial pick tonight…meaning I won’t get grading credit through Daily Overlay, but you most definitely should consider playing him.
But that’s OK, I don’t like to take the free squares like other experts around the industry. Sometimes people feel the need to pad their stats, but I will keep swinging at high heaters until one connects.
Tonight we have an 11-game slate and to go along with Kershaw we have no Coors, no Chase Field, no Rogers Centre, no Globe Life and no Camden.
But we do get a game in Yankee Stadium, a game at the Great American Smallpark and one at Fenway.
Below are my picks, but first, if you haven’t signed up for our premium content, then you won’t see all of my picks for today. But you can, for free, by signing up for our free 7-day trial, plus view all of our other premium content in that time frame.
Thank you for reading and go smash!
Analysis: The first of five picks goes to Mr. Severino, who has flashed his big-game ability so far this season. He’s fanning bats at 9.09 K/9 rate while inducing lots of ground balls and limiting the walks. Next up for Severino are the Blue Jays, who are a bottom-five offense in the majors right now. I’ve lost a lot of money on the Blue Jays this year, but they have proven they are not that good, especially with Donaldson and Tulo out of pocket. The Blue Jays are striking out at a 22.2% clip to right-handed pitching while sporting a pathetic wOBA of .280 and ISO of .129. Severino is the perfect cheese to the wine that is Kershaw.
Analysis: Don’t look now, but Starlin Castro might be turning into the player the Cubs always hoped for…and he’s still vastly underpriced. Castro is hitting over .400 at home this year and is a reverse-splits hitter that has feasted on RH pitching this season with a .427 wOBA and a .238 ISO. He’s hitting .352 on the season and comes into tonight’s game against Marco Estrada with hits in four straight and hits in 9 of his last 10. Estrada is a guy who benefits from a lot of luck. He’s a high fly ball pitcher that does sport a decent strikeout rate and swinging strike rate, but gives up a ton of hard contact (36.5%) with an extremely low wOBA/batting average against RH bats. Castro also has the BvP angle working for him as he is 13-for-32 with 4 doubles, a triple, 4 walks and two steals. Hot hitter in Yankee Stadium? Check.
Analysis: Speaking of guys dominated right-handed pitching…here we have Marcell Ozuna, who provides the pop and upside of a Giancarlo Stanton, but at a $1,000 discount tonight. You have to fight through the strikeouts with Ozuna, but he’s crushed RH pitching this season. Marcell owns a .360 wOBA with a .290 ISO and a 54% hard contact rate. He’s belted 6 HRs off right-handed pitching this season too. I like Giancarlo today, but Ozuna provides the pop to allow you to fit in Kershaw and better bats.
Analysis: Funny little .gif above for Mr. McCann. I wonder if he and Gomez still have beef for any reason because their two new teams face each other tonight in Houston. McCann has been a solid cash game player all season and now he gets a pristine matchup against the corpse of Rangers’ pitcher Andrew Cashner, who sports a .366 wOBA, a 1.45 HR/9 rate and a 39.5% hard contact rate to lefties. This is a great spot for the entire Astros’ offense and McCann should be firmly inserted into the 6th slot.
Analysis: Billy Hamilton has a 3-game hitting streak. For him, that’s pretty good. To quote my favorite movie of all time, Major League, when coach Brown is talking to Willie Mayes Hayes – “You may run like Hayes, but you hits like sh*t.” I don’t think Hamilton is having to do any pushups for flyballs, but he is doing his best to get on base. Tonight he gets a pitcher he has dominated on the basepaths. I mean DOMINATED! I am not a Gerrit Cole fan myself. He gives up a lot of hard contact to lefties at 37.5% while giving up a .306 batting average and a .364 wOBA to lefty bats. Luckily for us, Hamilton hits at the top of the order and once he’s on against Cole, it’s over. In just 14 ABs against Cole, Hamilton has 5 hits, 2 doubles and 3 walks. Oh, and he owns TEN…TEN…TEN steals against Cole. He almost has a 1 Steal/AB rate against Cole alone, including 3 steals last year in 4 ABs. I am buying in here. Way in.