The Value Index is back at it, folks. I missed Tuesday, so we will tackle this evening slate for DFS. We have 7 games on the main evening slate. We don’t have to worry about Coors either. You can get your fill with that setting in the early slate. Tonight we have one stud pitcher […]
Hard to believe we are coming up on the NFL Draft and the end of the first month of the baseball season.
Which means summer is drawing closer, the school year is starting wind down and football season also is that much closer to our lives.
But I’ve said too much about football, it’s still early.
But is it too early to call Christian Yelich the best hitter in baseball or the AL MVP?
He has 13 home runs and we still have more than a week left of April.
Now, ALL of those home runs have come in Miller Park and he has just two RBIs away from Miller, so that begs the question for tonight’s 10-game slate….
Do you play Christian Yelich?
He’s also facing the Cardinals and I can’t tell you (but it’s a lot) how many home runs he has against the Cardinals already this season.
I will likely be fading him again because I just can’t chase once I am behind.
I like to be in front of things as much as possible and I am hopeful to be in front of a certain pitcher tonight, who also will be a big question on everyone’s minds.
But more on that later.
But first, remember to view today’s content in full, please check out our subscription details. You get just a taste though, and hope it’s enough for you to indulge.
Secondly, remember that pricing is FanDuel/DraftKings with salary cap percentages following for each, in that same order.
Now, let’s get down to business!
PITCHERS
Chris Sale – vs. Detroit Tigers – $8,400/$8,600 – 24%/26% – 36.8%
Analysis: Somehow we are the point with Chris Sale where he have to question whether we play him or not. He’s 0-4 with an 8.50 ERA with a 14:5 K/BB ratio. Reports indicate his velocity was reaching normal capacity in his last start, so perhaps things are finally starting to click for Chris Sale, who I am sure lots of people are selling at this point in the season already. But I’m not, even though he’s striking out RH bats at less than 7 K/9 right now and faces a RH-heavy team in the Detroit Tigers IN Fenway. I mean, if he gets lit up tonight by the team that’s 29th in wOBA against lefties, then I will find it difficult to recommend him for awhile, even if his price does get cheaper and cheaper. I figure if he does, a stint on the IL is far more likely than his price dipping to under $8K.
Chris Bassitt – vs. Texas Rangers – $6,000/$6,800 – 17.1%/23.2% – 33.2%
Analysis: The Rangers roughed up the Astros this weekend and are surging right now. But they get away from home turf and move into a big pitcher’s park. The Rangers are 4th in wOBA against RH pitching this season, but are also striking out at a 24% clip. Bassitt is making his first start of the season, but he limited a lot of damage in his appearances over the years, as lefties had a .263 wOBA and righties a .300 wOBA against him in 2018 while he struck out lefties at an 8.49 K/9 and righties at a 7.03 K/9. He’s certainly a punt play that could get you a QS and a win with 5 or 6 Ks and smash value.
HITTERS
Ryan Zimmerman – 1B – Washington Nationals – $3,400/$4,300 – 9.7%/8.6%
Analysis: Out of all the Coors bats on the slate, Zimmerman’s is the one that sticks out against lefty Tyler Anderson, who is allegedly coming off of the IL to pitch Monday’s game. Against lefties this season, Zimmerman owns a .387 wOBA in limited ABs while Anderson, in limited action himself, is allowing a .402 wOBA with a 0.00 HR/9 rate this season to righties. Having to pitch in Coors isn’t going to help those numbers I don’t believe.
Happy Friday everyone! Hope you have had a great week of DFS and are ready to add the cherry on top for the week as the MLB season rolls on tonight with a full 13-game slate. There’s a lot of information and stats to sift through, but the main thing to pay attention for tonight […]
There are far too many pitchers with the last name Lopez on this slate.
Pablo Lopez – Miami
Reynaldo Lopez – Chicago
Jorge Lopez – Kansas City
I am going to mix these up come lineup building time, aren’t I?
To honor the triumvirate of Lopez’s on this slate, here’s my list of the top Lopez’s of all time.
Overall, Monday was a great night for the Index. I don’t have the time to play a bunch of lineups, so I usually play just one or two. I didn’t get to Jose Ramirez or Arenado, but a few tweeks with them would’ve really made things interesting for yours truly. But a great night overall, even though I missed out on a lot of Yelich except on Yahoo and Showdowns. That guy is really turning into something special, and that’s difficult for me to finally admit.
Anyway, we have a huge 13-game slate to dive into today, so let’s get after it.
Housekeeping – this article will now function behind a paywall minus a couple of freebies each day. Make sure you get that free 7-day trial if you haven’t already and then if you continue to like what you read, then you know what to do! Matt and Brad do a really great job taking care of the Consensus, grading and putting out quality content for all sports they handle. Check their stuff out too!
Now, let’s take down this slate like the (GAME OF THRONES SPOILER IS COMING NEXT DON’T READ IF YOU HAVEN’T WATCHED SEASON 7!!!!) Night King took down Viserion!
Oh, remember. Pricing is FD and Draftkings with their percentages of salary cap. FD price is first, then DK, same goes for the percentages.
ALSO…FanDuel slate is 15 games, starts at 5:30 p.m. central, so we will cover those games here, too.
PITCHERS
Pablo Lopez – vs. Chicago Cubs – $6,400/$6,900 – 18%/25% -35%
Analysis: Well, Trevor Richards didn’t work out. He’s dead to me. Not even Marlins Park could keep the Cubs from getting to Richards. But now they face a different kind of pitcher in Pablo of the 3-Lopez trifecta. Lopez is young and going to give up some hits and runs, but we don’t care about that as much on FanDuel. We care about strikeouts, quality starts and wins. Right now, Lopez is striking out lefties at an 11.37 K/9 and righties at a 9.35 K/9. Lopez is a reverse splits pitcher from the right side and he should see a fair share of lefties here against the Cubs. Upside strong despite facing the 4th team in wOBA against RH pitching.
Kenta Maeda – vs. Cincinnati Reds – $8,300/$9,000 – 23.7%/29.6% – 39.2%
Analysis: The Reds are 25th in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season, and unless Yasiel Puig continues to play revenge, this play for cash games is pretty clear cut. The Reds strike out 23% of the time and Maeda, along with a loaded offense behind him facing Cincy’s Trevor Mahle, are in a great spot to rock the boat and get the win.
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