Welcome back to another week of baseball goodness with another edition of BvP for MVP. We had a tough stretch the past couple of weeks, but we ended on a high note on Friday with three “A” graded performances with a big output from Hanley Ramirez.
I also am going to provide an extra line of data favoring the hitter vs. the handedness of the starting pitchers, so we can cut out a lot of my narratives/analyses.
I hope we can build that momentum into a nice run and keep the remainder of the baseball season going strong. With that said, I am starting something a bit different tonight that we will keep going with the rest of the year. My new format is to provide you what I feel are 5 solid cash game bats, 1 GPP bat and a pitcher (when applicable). If I feel there are two pitchers, I may sub one for a bat as well. I don’t want to go past 7 picks. Eight or more is just too many and I feel 6 bats is kind of a sweet spot. I will obviously still be graded by our guys for my overall picks, but that’s OK. If I can help you make money, even in just cash games, with my picks, then that is success.
I will keep reminding you that I feel BvP numbers take a hit as we head toward the back end of the season. Pitchers are more focused, especially those on teams fighting for playoffs and variance/regression eventually comes around. People are fighting for roster spots next year as well. It’s just something to keep in the back of your mind (and me too) as the season comes down the home stretch. Once the playoffs come, as they say, you can throw the records our the window,
Before we get to tonight’s picks, please visit dailybaseballdata.com for more of today’s BvP data. New format and presentation, so let me know what you think in the comments below. Time for the picks! Remember first five are cash games, last batter is tournament and then a pitcher. Good luck!
Manny Machado – 3B/SS – Orioles – vs. Eduardo Rodriguez – DraftKings – $5,000
|Machado BvP||BB% vs. L||ISO vs. L||Hard% vs. L||BAA vs. L||wOBA vs. L||wRC+ vs. L|
|4-for-13, 2 2B, 1 BB||10.5 %||0.209||38.3 %||0.318||0.387||143|
Analysis: Machado is one of 3 bats I am recommending at the $5,000 range on DraftKings. But this might be my favorite option. Machado is a beast at home with a .335 average and 13 homeruns. It doesn’t matter where Rodriguez pitchers, he’s turrible (Charles Barkley voice). E-Rod gives up a .358 wOBA and 2.17 HR/9 to RH bats.
Salvador Perez – C – Royals – vs. Justin Verlander – DraftKings – $2,600 – BvP Darling of the Night
|Perez BvP||BB% vs. R||ISO vs. R||Hard% vs. R||BAA vs. R||wOBA vs. R||wRC+ vs. R|
|23-for-49, 8 2B, 2 HR||3.4 %||0.204||35.5 %||0.264||0.323||100|
Analysis: We’ve been here before and it paid off, so back to the well again. Verlander is a well-known reverse-splits pitcher (.288 wOBA and 30% hard contact to RHs), and while this doesn’t feel like a cash game play, Perez has nearly a .500 average against him. For a cash game, all you need to do is beat 50% of the field, correct? Well, at $2,600 Perez seems like a solid punt play with a high floor due to his overall success vs. the Tigers’ ace.
Kris Bryant – 3B/OF – Cubs – vs. Chase Anderson – DraftKings – $5,000
|Bryant BvP||BB% vs. R||ISO vs. R||Hard% vs. R||BAA vs. R||wOBA vs. R||wRC+ vs. R|
|1-for-4, 1 HR||10.1 %||0.236||41.1 %||0.278||0.377||136|
Analysis: Machado and Bryant are some of my favorite plays on DraftKings because of their dual eligibility, which immediately makes them cash game viable almost every night. The sample size is small here, but Anderson has extreme reverse-splits (.411 wOBA, 40% hard contact and 2.15 HR/9 rate vs. RH bats). As you see, Bryant can hit right handers very well. Bryant is a solid cash game option tonight even if he does seem to struggle at Wrigley more than on the road.
Ryan Braun – OF – Brewers – vs. Jason Hammel – DraftKings – $5,000
|Braun BvP||BB% vs. R||ISO vs. R||Hard% vs. R||BAA vs. R||wOBA vs. R||wRC+ vs. R|
|9-for-25, 1 2B, 3 HR||7.9 %||0.24||32.2 %||0.312||0.387||139|
Analysis: Speaking of Wrigley, Ryan Braun is next on our list. He also has 3 BB and a steal against Hammel in his career, but the days of counting on Braun for many swipes is long gone. Hammel has been great at home this season, but did give up 4 ER at home to the Brewers earlier this year. Braun has 3 multi-hit efforts in his past 4 games, including a 2 HR performance on Sunday. Braun is seeing the ball well and always has a high floor in cash games, even if he is a bit pricey today.
Ryan Raburn – OF – Rockies – vs. Gio Gonzalez – DraftKings – $3,300
|Raburn BvP||BB% vs. R||ISO vs. R||Hard% vs. R||BAA vs. R||wOBA vs. R||wRC+ vs. R|
|7-for-13, 1 2B, 3 HR, 1 BB||15.6 %||0.234||34.6 %||0.208||0.339||93|
Analysis: This play is contingent on whether Raburn sees the field. Hopefully, Rockies manager Walt Weiss follows BvP and will insert him tonight against Gio. Raburn may not seem like a cash game play, but if you want to pay up for pitching and have exposure to Coors (always a solid cash game strategy), then Raburn is your guy at just $3,300. Gio gives up more than 35% hard contact to RH bats this season and Coors only amplifies the holes in Gonzalez’s game (which there are a lot of these days).
Jose Ramirez – 3B/OF – Indians – vs. Jose Quintana – DraftKings – $4,900 – GPP Play of the Day
|Ramirez BvP||BB% vs. L||ISO vs. L||Hard% vs. L||BAA vs. L||wOBA vs. L||wRC+ vs. L|
|6-for-15, 2 2B, 1 BB, 3 SB||6.1 %||0.16||29.2 %||0.33||0.377||139|
Analysis: Last season, Ramirez helped me win more than 5 figures in one contest, and he was facing Quintana that night. Back them, he was under $3K. Tonight is much different as he has been on great roll at the plate, inflating his price around the industry. For that, Ramirez is a great GPP option for you tonight. Quintana is a tough pitcher to pick on, but hopefully Ramirez can get on base and add to his stolen bases total against his opponent. Ramirez also is a great GPP play because he has killed it at Progressive Field this season with a .356 average, 5 HR and a .415 OBP.