Apparently, my Adam Conley senses aren’t in tune yet this year. Enough talk of him, let’s move on to the 11-game Monday night slate to kick off the month of May. It is a Clayton Kershaw night, so we will need to examine if there are other strong options that make it worth fading him and his high price tag. On the hitting side, there are a lot of stacks that I like. In addition to the three I list below, others to consider are the Braves and Phillies who have cheaper players that may allow you to stack some of them and include Kershaw in tournaments.
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Clayton Kershaw (FD-$12,600 / DK-$13,900)
As usual, Kershaw is way more expensive than the rest of the pitchers on the slate and also has a much higher floor and ceiling than the other options. I don’t see moving off of Kershaw in Cash games. There is not a game at Coors Field so finding some good value hitting options on an 11-game slate should be manageable. In GPPs, make sure you have at least a little bit of Kershaw exposure but there are quite a few solid mid-priced options on the slate that could be a better way to get some bigger bats into your GPP lineups.
Value
Luis Severino (FD-$8,500 / DK-$8,000)
Severino has pitched very well so far this season with a 3.00 ERA (2.19 xFIP) and 32.7% strikeout rate. He will face a Blue Jays’ team that is still struggling to hit. They have a bottom six ISO, wOBA and wRC+ over the last seven days and have a 22.7% strikeout rate with a bottom three wOBA and wRC+ against right-handers this season. Severino is a great option for both Cash games and GPPs. Also, give consideration to Michael Wacha.
Darkhorse
Wei-Yin Chen (FD-$8,100 / DK-$6,600)
I really wanted to recommend Amir Garrett in this spot today with a $5,500 price tag on DraftKings but the more I dug into his situation the more I didn’t like it. So much so that I went with his opponent, the Pirates as my contrarian stack below. So, with Kershaw using up so much of the salary cap, I needed to find another cheap option that you could consider pairing him with. So, Chen is the choice. While Chen is not a big strikeout pitcher he should see an increase in Ks tonight pitching against the Rays who have struck out a league-worst 27.1% against lefties this season. Pitching at home in Miami should also help Chen keep the ball in the yard. Feel free to take a flier on Garrett in GPPs, but if I am going cheap with my second pitcher in Cash games on DK, I’m going with Chen.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Astros vs. Andrew Cashner
Cashner’s surface stats look okay so far this year with a 2.93 ERA but he is not striking anyone out with an 11.9% strikeout rate and he has been lucky so far allowing just a .250 BABIP contributing to an xFIP of 6.25.
Jose Altuve (FD-$4,000 / DK-$4,900) – Altuve has back-to-back two-hit games including a home run with a .381 wOBA this year and .395 wOBA last season against righties.
Josh Reddick (FD-$3,000 / DK-$3,600) – Reddick hits lefties well with a career .338 wOBA and .186 ISO.
George Springer (FD-$3,300 / DK-$4,600) – Springer hasn’t homered in eight games but has multiple hits in two of his last three games and his DFS prices has come down some.
Carlos Correa (FD-$3,500 / DK-$4,800) – Correa has four doubles in his last five games and has a career .376 wOBA and .201 ISO at home against righties in his career.
Cubs vs. Vince Velasquez
The wind is blowing out in Wrigley today so despite the cold weather (high 40s) look to get some exposure to the Cubs (and Phillies) bats. Velasquez has allowed 2.11 HR/9 so far this season after a 1.44 HR/9 rate last season.
Anthony Rizzo (FD-$4,700 / DK-$5,200) – Rizzo has hit five homers over his last nine games and had a .404 wOBA and .273 ISO versus righties last season.
Kyle Schwarber (FD-$3,300 / DK-$4,300) – Schwarber at home versus a righty is a good combination with a career .379 wOBA and .255 ISO.
Kris Bryant (FD-$4,300 / DK-$5,000) – Bryant is riding an 11-game hitting streak and is coming off a big series in Boston where he hit two long balls.
Ben Zobrist (FD-$3,100 / DK-$4,000) – Zobrist has three extra-base hits in his last three games and had a .357 wOBA versus righties last season.
Contrarian Stack
Pirates vs. Amir Garrett
As I wrote in the intro, I also like the Phillies and Braves as contrarian stack but I will lead with the Pirates. Garrett pitched well in his first three outings before getting roughed up by the Brewers for nine runs in his last start. The Pirates have hit lefties fairly well recently and get a positive park shift in Cincy where the wind will be blowing out to left (15-20 mph). Only listing three hitters but consider any of the cheap options that hit in the top half of the lineup.
Andrew McCutchen (FD-$3,800 / DK-$4,700) – McCutchen loves to hit in Cincy with 16 career homers in 66 games and had a .183 ISO versus lefties last season.
Josh Harrison (FD-$2,900 / DK-$3,900) – Harrison is batting .357 over his last seven games with three extra-base hits.
Jody Mercer (FD-$2,300 / DK-$3,300) – Mercer is a cheap option hitting near the top of the lineup in a good hitting environment. He had a .368 wOBA and .217 ISO on the road against lefties last season.
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