Chalk up another good call from my gut on Friday with Chris Tillman pitching five innings of one-run baseball with five strikeouts and a win to be one of the top pitchers on the Friday night slate. I’m sure there will be more gut calls as the season progresses but tonight I am sticking to the numbers to recommend four starting pitchers throwing on the Monday night slate of MLB action.
Ace
Max Scherzer (FD-$11,600 / DK-$13,100)
Scherzer is the most expensive pitcher on the night slate but he is worth paying up for especially on FanDuel. Not much analysis needed as Scherzer is a big favorite against the Braves and has by far the highest K-rate of all the pitchers tonight. Jon Lester is an option on DraftKings at $2,600 less than Scherzer but I would still prefer to pay up for Scherzer if you can find enough value bats.
Value
Sonny Gray (FD-$10,400 / DK-$9,600)
Gray’s price tag on DraftKings is very appealing tonight. The Athletics are a decent sized favorite tonight playing at home against the Angels with the second lowest implied runs against by Vegas. Gray doesn’t have high strikeout upside tonight so I would limit my exposure to him to Cash games where he should provide a high floor as a solid, consistent pitching option.
Hisashi Iwakuma (FD-$8,900 / DK-$9,700)
If you are not going to pay up for Scherzer on FanDuel tonight then Iwakuma is your man. Iwakuma carries more risk than Scherzer and Gray pitching against a dangerous Rangers lineup but has slightly better strikeout upside than Gray and a good chance for a win tonight. Iwakuma has also been better at home over his career with a lower ERA, xFIP, K% and wOBA allowed.
Darkhorse
Brandon Finnegan (FD-$6,300 / DK-$5,900)
Finnegan made my list last week as a darkhorse selection and he didn’t disappoint throwing six innings of two run baseball with nine strikeouts against the Phillies. Finnegan is a riskier play tonight pitching against the Cubs’ potent lineup in Wrigley. However, Finnegan does have significant upside as a good strikeout pitcher going against the Cubs who struck out a league-worst 26.2% of the time against lefties last season. Also on Finnegan’s side tonight is the weather in Chicago where the temperatures are expected to be in the 40s with the wind blowing across the field from left to right.
Come back to DailyOverlay later today for the MLB Consensus list and some sample MLB lineups.
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