Welcome to another week of “On the Hill” articles with DFS pitcher recommendations. Today features a solid nine-game slate of games including a couple of aces squaring off against each other and some solid value options to choose from.
Ace
Jose Fernandez (FD-$10,900 / DK-$12,800)
Fernandez will face the Giants Johnny Cueto in a matchup of the top two pitchers on the slate. I am backing Fernandez, in Cash games in particular. Fernandez secures a high floor due to his strikeout ability posting a massive 36.4% strikeout rate this season. He has also pitched better at home this season with a 2.11 ERA while allowing just a .244 wOBA. Fernandez isn’t the biggest favorite on the night due to his opposing pitcher but he still has a good chance for a win. Fernandez is my top Cash game option but could be worth fading in GPPs and pivoting to Cueto or another lower priced option.
Value
Zach Davies (FD-$8,200 / DK-$8,600)
Davies has been very solid for the Brewers this season and has pitched very well recently posting a 1.97 ERA with four wins over his last five starts. He doesn’t have big strikeout upside and will be facing a Braves’ team that only strikes out 19.8% of the time against righties. The Braves offense has performed better lately but still rank at the bottom in the league in wRC+, wOBA and ISO against righties this season. Davies is a solid Cash game option but has limited upside for GPPs.
Michael Wacha (FD-$7,300 / DK-$6,500)
Wacha profiles similar to Davies tonight. He has not allowed more than three runs in any of his last 10 starts posting a 3.45 ERA during that stretch with a 7.2 K/9. Wacha comes in as one of the biggest favorites pitching at home against the Reds who rank in the bottom 10 in wOBA and wRC+ against righties this season. Wacha has also had some success against the Reds earlier this season pitching six innings of one-run baseball with five strikeouts. Wacha is a great cheap Cash game option as a #2 pitcher on two-pitcher sites.
Darkhorse
Julio Urias (FD-$7,000 / DK-$6,800)
Urias is the biggest wild card on the slate today. The Dodgers are the biggest Vegas favorite and are facing the Phillies who strikeout 23.1% (9th worst) of the time against lefties and are in the bottom two in ISO, wOBA and wRC+. The biggest question mark is how deep into the game can Urias go with six innings as his longest outing in the majors. Urias is a great GPP option due to his high ceiling and low price tag.
On the Hill – Results
Friday
| Type | Pitcher | DK $ | DK Pts | Grade |
| Ace | Noah Syndergaard | 11200 | 14.10 | D |
| Value | Jon Lester | 9600 | 28.15 | A |
| Value | Blake Snell | 8700 | 20.40 | B |
| Dark | Francisco Liriano | 7100 | 14.10 | D |
Season
| Type | A+ | A | B | C | D | F | Tot | DK Cost | DK Pts | DO Score |
| Ace | 33 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 64 | $11,891 | 24.04 | 6.20 |
| Value | 25 | 15 | 14 | 32 | 7 | 34 | 127 | $8,691 | 15.94 | 3.45 |
| Dark | 22 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 68 | $6,640 | 16.08 | 4.59 |
- DK Cost is the average DraftKings cost per pitcher selected
- DK Pts is the average DraftKings points scored per pitcher selected
- DO Score is the Daily Overlay score for each type
Come back to DailyOverlay later today for the MLB Consensus list and some sample MLB lineups.
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