We have the typical big Friday night MLB slate with 14 games on the docket around the league. It actually looks like it might be a pretty clean slate from a weather perspective, which is nice after a heavy rain week. There are plenty of strong pitching options near the top and middle, but the low end is scary, so I’m not going there. Luckily, there are some solid hitting options to stack up including a cheap contrarian option. So, plug in some MLB DFS lineups and then head out and enjoy a nice summer night!
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Chris Sale (FD-$12,000 / DK-$12,000)
I’ll admit my recommendation of Sale is a little bit of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) since I expect that he will be the choice for most at the high end. He has been pitching great reaching double-digit strikeouts in four straight starts. Sale is an enormous Vegas favorite on Friday night against the visiting Blue Jays and will likely be my #1 SP on two-pitcher sites in Cash games, but I might try fading him in GPPs and in Cash games on one-pitcher sites. Both Trevor Bauer and Walker Buehler are solid pivots in the high-priced range along with my two mid-priced options below.
Value
Aaron Nola (FD-$8,700 / DK-$8,000)
I expect Nola to be very chalky on DraftKings tonight with an $8k price tag and pitching at home against the Marlins. The Marlins ranked dead last in wOBA (.281) and 29th in wRC+ (75) against right-handed pitching this season while also posting a 24.9% strikeout rate (6th). Nola hasn’t been able to reach last season’s success this year but with an xFIP (3.91) about a run lower than his ERA (4.89) with an elevated BABIP and HR/FB rate, he could “get right” in Friday’s start against the Marlins. He has pitched better at home compared to on the road this season and will have some home-cookin’ as a big Vegas favorite.
Darkhorse
James Paxton (FD-$9,200 / DK-$8,100)
The matchup for Paxton on Friday isn’t ideal with the Astros but with his low price tag and upside potential, he is worth a shot in GPPs. He has pitched well at home this year with a 2.15 ERA while allowing just a .222 wOBA with a 32.8% strikeout rate. Paxton saw his pitch count reach triple-digits in his last start for the first time since returning from injury and his results were better as he pitched deeper into the game and had a slight increase in velocity. He is a home favorite and has a pitcher-friendly umpire behind the plate.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Twins vs. Jakob Junis
Junis has allowed a .370 wOBA to lefties this season while both lefties and righties have taken the right-hander deep at a 1.60 HR/9 clip. The weather will also be favorable for hitting on Friday in KC with warm temps and the winds blowing out.
Max Kepler (FD-$4,200 / DK-$5,000) – Kelper has a .387 wOBA and .311 ISO against righties and is batting .400 off Junis in 15 at-bats with three extra-base hits.
Jorge Polanco (FD-$4,000 / DK-$4,600) – Polanco has crushed righties on the road this year with a .471 wOBA and .404 ISO.
Eddie Rosario (FD-$3,900 / DK-$4,600) – Rosario has also hit righties well on the road this season with a .393 wOBA and .315 ISO.
Miguel Sano (FD-$3,500 / DK-$4,200) – Sano has clubbed a pair of homers off Junis in six at-bats.
White Sox vs. Ariel Jurado
The White Sox/Rangers matchup in the heat of Texas will get plenty of attention on Friday’s slate. For stacking purposes, I prefer the White Sox side where you are guaranteed nine innings worth of at-bats and they have a more condensed core of hitters where the production will come from. Jurado has allowed a .385 wOBA and 2.08 HR/9 to righties this season.
Yoan Moncada (FD-$3,600 / DK-$4,000) – Moncada will hit from the left side but that is his strong side with a .395 wOBA and .262 ISO this season.
Jose Abreu (FD-$3,900 / DK-$4,700) – Abreu has hit well recently with a string of multi-hit efforts and has a solid .333 wOBA and .242 ISO against righties on the road this year.
Eloy Jimenez (FD-$3,100 / DK-$4,800) – Jimenez has reverse splits in his rookie campaign including a .348 wOBA and .359 ISO against righties on the road.
Tim Anderson (FD-$3,400 / DK-$4,700) – Anderson is riding a six-game hitting streak while hitting in the two-hole of the White Sox lineup. He also has reverse splits with a .361 wOBA and .186 ISO against righties this season.
Contrarian Stack
Orioles vs. Mike Leake
I’m not quite sure what it is but I’m digging an Orioles stack tonight against Leake. Sure, Leake is fine, especially at home, but he just allows a ton of homers which can propel a stack up the leaderboard even if they don’t put up double-digit runs. Leake is generous with the long ball to both righties and lefties.
Trey Mancini (FD-$3,600 / DK-$4,400) – If Mancini doesn’t return to the lineup then plug in Chance Sisco, especially on DK where you need a catcher.
Jonathan Villar (FD-$3,100 / DK-$3,800) – Villar is 5-for-12 off Leake in his career and has a .345 wOBA against righties on the road this season.
Chris Davis (FD-$2,000 / DK-$2,200) – Davis is a min-priced option with HR potential. He is 3-for-7 with a double and a homer off Leake in his career.
Dwight Smith Jr. (FD-$3,000 / DK-$4,100) – Smith has eight homers off righties this season with a .220 ISO.
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