Another good night last night with all three of my recommendation that pitched receiving either an A+ or A grade. Not as many aces tonight but I am going away from where I expect the herd to go tonight for my Ace selection. Also, my gut leads me away from one of the potential value pitching options and two Darkhorse picks for the price of one.
Ace
Drew Smyly (FD-$9,400 / DK-$10,500)
While Jon Lester is a strong play tonight as well, I am going to take the “discount” ace tonight who I rate very close to Lester and is at a reduced price on FanDuel by $1,600 and DraftKings by $1,700. Smyly has been sensational this season with a 2.72 ERA and a massive 10.7 K/9. Since his first start when he allowed five runs, he has not allowed more than two runs in any start since including striking out at least six batters each game. Tonight against the Mariners and Wade Miley, I expect the Rays to score some runs putting Smyly in a good position for a win. Smyly could be a good option in both Cash and GPPs as I expect fellow aces Lester and Jacob deGrom to be higher-owned.
Value
Joe Ross (FD-$8,100 / DK-$7,700)
Ross has had some luck on his side this season with a .250 BABIP against him, an 87.1% left-on-base percentage and has yet to allow a home run this season. However, with a career groundball rate of 48.3% and a .265 BABIP allowed last season he may have the skill to limit the long ball and solid contact. Ross will face a Tigers team tonight that has struck out 24.4% (6th worst) against righties this season. If Ross can continue to limit the long ball he should be in a good spot for another strong outing tonight. Ross is a viable option as a #2 pitcher on two-pitcher sites and as a GPP play.
Hector Santiago (FD-$8,200 / DK-$7,100)
Sometimes you have to just trust your process and Santiago is a “trust your process” guy for me tonight. I wanted to say away from Adam Conley pitching against the same Brewers team that he no-hit for 7 2/3 innings just 12 days ago because just how sometimes your gut leads you to a player, tonight my gut is saying to stay away from Conley. So that brings me to Santiago who my system rates very well tonight pitching at home against the Cardinals. Cardinals are not really a good team to pick on but Santiago was significantly better at home last season and I don’t have a strong feeling one way or the other, so tonight I am going to just “trust the process” and consider Santiago as second pitching option on two-pitcher sites and as a GPP flier.
Darkhorse
Adam Morgan (FD-$6,100 / DK-$5,500)
Tonight’s recommendation of Morgan is all about his opponent the light-hitting Atlanta Braves. The Braves rank last in the league in ISO (.043) and wOBA (.240) against lefties and have the second worst K% at 26.0. I don’t think Morgan is anything special as a pitcher but you don’t have to be great, you just have to be better than who you are facing to look good sometimes. Morgan could be a cheap second pitching option if you want to try to get a lot of Coors Field exposure.
Bonus Darkhorse: Jose Berrios (FD-$6,500 / DK-$7,000)
Read write-up from yesterday’s column here.
On the Hill – Results
Monday
| Date | Type | Pitcher | DK $ | DK Pts | Grade |
| 9-May | Ace | Jose Fernandez | 11300 | 36.95 | A+ |
| 9-May | Value | Steven Matz | 9300 | 19.30 | A |
| 9-May | Value | Aaron Sanchez | 6900 | 22.95 | A+ |
- Darkhorse pick Jose Berrios had his game postponed on Monday
Season
| Type | A+ | A | B | C | D | F | Tot | DK Cost | DK Pts | DO Score |
| Ace | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 21 | $11,410 | 21.64 | 4.52 |
| Value | 9 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 0 | 11 | 43 | $8,358 | 16.29 | 3.53 |
| Dark | 6 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 20 | $6,720 | 16.09 | 4.15 |
- DK Cost is the average DraftKings cost per pitcher selected
- DK Pts is the average DraftKings points scored per pitcher selected
- DO Score is the Daily Overlay score for each type
Come back to DailyOverlay later today for the MLB Consensus list and some sample MLB lineups.
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