Welcome to the Friday edition of “On the Hill” for a big 14-game slate of MLB action. Tonight’s pitcher recommendations really depend on which site you are playing on as there are some wide swings in pricing that make certain pitchers more attractive depending on where they are priced lower. So with that, we have two Ace recommendations tonight and only one Value play, although I will give you a couple other Value options that are also site dependent, and of course our Darkhorse pick of the night.
Ace
Madison Bumgarner (FD-$11,700 / DK-$10,900)
I have Syndergaard and Bumgarner as a virtual tie for my top rated pitcher tonight so it makes sense to get whoever is the cheaper option at the site you are playing. On DraftKings tonight that would be Bumgarner at $2,000 less than Syndergaard. The Rockies beat up on the Giants last night scoring 17 runs but that was against Matt Cain. Tonight they will face Bumgarner who is pitching at home where he has always had more success while the Rockies have struggled against lefties this season with a 24.6% strikeout rate (4th worst). Bumgarner should be able to limit the damage the Rockies hitters can do and rack up some strikeouts along the way. Use Bumgarner in Cash on DraftKings and as a GPP play on FanDuel.
Noah Syndergaard (FD-$11,200 / DK-$12,900)
All the numbers screamed to use Jacob deGrom last night but that didn’t work out too well. Well, tonight you need to trust the numbers again and not react to yesterday’s results and fire up the next Mets “ace” pitcher in a great matchup against the Padres in Petco. The Padres strike out the 3rd most against righties at 25.7% have the 4th worst ISO at .125 and the 2nd worst wOBA at .277. Syndergaard is my top pitcher tonight on FanDuel at a slightly less salary than Bumgarner and while you can plug him into your DraftKings lineup if you can make the salary work, I would prefer going with Bumgarner for $2,000 less.
Value
Danny Salazar (FD-$9,000 / DK-$8,800)
I am not in love with any of the value options tonight as they all seem to have their potential issues whether it is their matchup or price. The one pitcher that feels like he has the best chance to succeed is Salazar. He has pitched well so far this season with a 2.40 ERA and 10.2 K/9 and is a decent sized favorite pitching at home tonight. He faces a solid Royals team but he has had some success against them with Royals hitters combining for just a .275 wOBA against him in his career. As long as he can avoid Eric Hosmer who has hit him well, Salazar should be in a good position to post a solid score tonight.
Others to consider: DraftKings: Chris Archer ($9,400) FanDuel: Vincent Velasquez ($8,800)
Darkhorse
Rich Hill (FD-$7,900 / DK-$7,400)
Hill is a high-risk/high-reward option tonight pitching in Baltimore against the Orioles potent lineup. Although the Orioles haven’t hit recently only scoring one run over the last two games including getting shut down by lefty CC Sabathia on Wednesday. Hill has been phenomenal this season with 2.53 ERA and 11.5 K/9 and will face an Orioles team that has a 22.8% K-rate against lefties this season. Hill makes for a great upside play tonight in GPPs.
On the Hill – Results
Wednesday
| Date | Type | Pitcher | DK $ | DK Pts | Grade |
| 4-May | Ace | Jose Fernandez | 11200 | 17.85 | A |
| 4-May | Value | Drew Smyly | 10900 | 15.05 | B |
| 4-May | Value | Aaron Sanchez | 6400 | 14.35 | C |
| 4-May | Dark | Mike Fiers | 8300 | 4.50 | F |
Season
| Type | A+ | A | B | C | D | F | Tot | DK Cost | DK Pts | DO Score |
| Ace | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 18 | $11,361 | 20.73 | 4.06 |
| Value | 7 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 0 | 11 | 40 | $8,360 | 15.55 | 3.18 |
| Dark | 6 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 20 | $6,720 | 16.09 | 4.15 |
- DK Cost is the average DraftKings cost per pitcher selected
- DK Pts is the average DraftKings points scored per pitcher selected
- DO Score is the Daily Overlay score for each type
Come back to DailyOverlay later today for the MLB Consensus list and some sample MLB lineups.
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