The end of the week has arrived!
Hopefully you aren’t too tired staying up late and watching the Open Championship, that is if you are into that sort of thing.
Tonight we have a 14-game slate to tackle.
And honestly, I think this one is tough.
On one hand we have some excellent pitching options up top and there are a few value guys that stick out to me. But who do we play? Sale, Scherzer, Darvish, Alex Wood and Samardzija occupy the elite talent pricing.
There also are a few young guys toeing the bump and sometimes with these types of guys, it’s hard to predict early on what kind of pitcher they really are. I would vote they are mediocre, but are they worth stacking against?
At the bottom of the heap we have Homer Bailey, Ubaldo, Anibal Sanchez, James Shields, Jose Urena, etc.
So lots of gas cans to stack against tonight.
As I started doing this week, here are my rankings at each hitting position and my favorite stacks of the night.
Catcher
- Gary Sanchez
- Mike Zunino
- Salvador Perez
- Russell Martin
- Buster Posey
First Base
- Justin Bour
- Joey Votto
- Ryon Healy
- Matt Holliday
- Mitch Moreland
Second Base
- Daniel Murphy
- Brian Dozier
- Ian Kinsler
- Jonathan Schoop
- Asdrubal Cabrera
Third Base
- Mike Moustakas
- Miguel Sano
- Josh Donaldson
- Jake Lamb
- Travis Shaw
Shortstop
- Trevor Story
- Zack Cozart
- Didi Gregorius
- Xander Bogaerts
- Marcus Semien
Outfielders
- Andrew McCutchen
- Michael Conforto
- Carlos Gonzalez
- Gregory Polanco
- Aaron Judge
- Jay Bruce
STACKS
- Pirates
- Mets
- Marlins
- Royals
- Astros
I truly think this is a slate that I need to see lineups before making a lot of decisions. I am likely not going to play cash at all. I think this is a multi-lineup slate.
But there are a few guys I think really stick out today and then some, but I’ve narrowed it down to the following.
Yu Darvish – SP – Texas Rangers – $10,600
Analysis: Two guys I like today at pitcher face off against two teams that have trolled me all season long. But I am trusting Yu as one of my favorite pitching plays. Facing the Tampa Bay Rays in Tropicana really is a great matchup on paper. Yu has a 12% SwStr and a 9+ K/9 rate. The Rays have been struggling of late and strike out at a 24% clip. In 41 ABs against the current Rays’ roster, Darvish has held them to a .171 average, 1 RBI and zero home runs. The only thing that worries be here is that the Rangers are 1-9 in Yu’s last 10 starts. He’s been good in that span, mostly.
Mike Moustakas – 3B – Kansas City Royals – $3,600
Analysis: For a player that has 25 home runs, 56 RBI and nearly a .270 average, the Moose is constantly underpriced. Carlos Beltran, Josh Reddick and many others have worse stat lines than he, but they command higher prices. Moustakas has been a beast all season long and gets a wonderful matchup against gas can James Shields. The Royals are not the same team they were to start the season. They put up double-digit runs on Michael Fulmer and the Tigers yesterday, what do you think they can do against Shields?
Andrew McCutchen – OF – Pittsburgh PIrates – $4,600
Analysis: McCutchen has been on a tear since June and for him to get a game in Coors, he’s priced only at what he normally is on any given day in PNC Park. This is robbery in my opinion. I like Jeff Hoffman, the Rockies’ starting pitcher, but he’s been a reverse-splits pitcher early on in his career, giving up a .329 wOBA, 36% hard contact and nearly 1 HR/9. It’s going to be warm and Hoffman is a flyball pitcher. As for Cutch, he’s the team’s best hitter against RH pitching this season – .348 wOBA, .178 ISO and a 34% hard contact rate, and those numbers are mostly playing in a pitcher-friendly park. Now Cutch gets Coors.
Gregory Polanco – OF – Pittsburgh Pirates – $3,600
Analysis: Speaking of criminally underpriced, Gregory Polanco is under $4K in Coors. Now, he hasn’t been the standout we saw last year, but I believe the talent is still there. He has a .318 wOBA and a .167 ISO against RH pitching this season. Hoffman has some regression coming against lefties, and what better way to get that trend going in Coors?
Michael Conforto – OF – New York Mets – $4,400
Analysis: I am going to pick on a young lad pitching in New York tonight. That lad is Paul Blackburn. Who is he? Hell, I don’t really know. But what I do know is that he’s been pitching way over his head and it’s been warm in New York of late. Against lefties, Blackburn has a .192 BABIP and a 5.30 xFIP. All the while he’s giving up 2+ HR/9 to lefties this season. Conforto has demolished RH pitching this season, owning a .407 wOBA, a .277 ISO and a 42% hard contact rate. And he leads off.
Jay Bruce – OF – New York Mets – $4,200
Analysis: Bruce got a day off and he gets Blackburn too. Against RH pitching this season, Bruce has a ,392 wOBA and a .299 ISO with a 44% hard contact rate. I like the Mets today.
