MLB – On the Hill – June 13
Today DailyOverlay publishes graded DFS consensus sheets for the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, PGA and college football, plus sportsbook consensus cards — and grades every pick in public the next morning.
Monday’s 10-game slate is an ugly one for pitching in my opinion. I have concerns about the high-priced options such as Max Scherzer due to the opponent (Cubs) and Zack Greinke due to the park and weather (Arizona). While I still expect those to be the two highest owned options, I am going to take on a little risk and go in a different direction.
Ace
Carlos Carrasco (FD-$9,400 / DK-$10,800)
Carrasco is still working his way back into form following a month-long DL stint with a hamstring injury. He has made two starts since his return throwing 11.2 innings while allowing seven runs and recording eight strikeouts. I expect Carrasco to take another step forward tonight against a Royals team that hasn’t found their offensive groove this season ranking 2nd worst in ISO (.130) and in the bottom 12 in wOBA and wRC+ against righties this season. I expect Scherzer to be heavily owned and I would use him in GPPs, but I prefer Carrasco tonight in Cash games with a reduced price tag.
Value
Kyle Hendricks (FD-$8,400 / DK-$9,400)
Hendricks is a frustrating pitcher to roster in DFS as he is often pulled after just five innings. Yet he did throw back-to-back games of 8+ innings before his last outing. While the innings have been variable, his fantasy production has not with a 2.90 ERA and 7.5 K/9. Hendricks has also fared well against the Nationals hitters allowing just a .180 wOBA over 51 plate appearances so far in his career. I expect the Cubs and Hendricks to rise to the occasion against Scherzer and the Nationals today making Hendricks a great GPP option and potential Cash game option on two-pitcher sites.
Wei-Yin Chen (FD-$8,100 / DK-$8,000)
It was tough to come up with a second value option tonight but after some digging, I think that Chen is the best option due to his strikeout upside while pitching in a pitcher-friendly environment in San Diego. The Padres do hit lefties fairly well (at least compared to how poorly they hit righties) but they still strike out 24.9% of the time (3rd worst) against southpaws. I would limit my overall exposure to Chen but he is worth a flier in GPPs.
Darkhorse
Matt Boyd (FD-$6,100 / DK-$6,200)
Boyd is another upside play tonight due to his strikeout potential. He will face a White Sox team that has struck out 23.5% of the time (9th worst) and also rank 6th worst in ISO at .137 against lefties this season. Boyd will also have a decent shot for a win with the Tigers facing James Shields who has allowed 17 runs over his last two starts. Boyd is worth a GPP flier and maybe a Cash game option as #2 pitcher on two-pitcher sites.
On the Hill – Results
Friday
| Date | Type | Pitcher | DK $ | DK Pts | Grade |
| 10-Jun | Ace | Clayton Kershaw | 13900 | 41.00 | A+ |
| 10-Jun | Value | Corey Kluber | 11400 | 36.35 | A+ |
| 10-Jun | Value | Ian Kennedy | 9300 | -5.85 | F |
| 10-Jun | Dark | Sonny Gray | 6500 | 17.65 | A |
Season
| Type | A+ | A | B | C | D | F | Tot | DK Cost | DK Pts | DO Score |
| Ace | 17 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 38 | $11,653 | 24.80 | 5.74 |
| Value | 16 | 9 | 9 | 21 | 1 | 20 | 76 | $8,403 | 16.60 | 3.62 |
| Dark | 17 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 41 | $6,676 | 18.00 | 5.27 |
- DK Cost is the average DraftKings cost per pitcher selected
- DK Pts is the average DraftKings points scored per pitcher selected
- DO Score is the Daily Overlay score for each type
Come back to DailyOverlay later today for the MLB Consensus list and some sample MLB lineups.
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