NFL Value Index – Week 11

I know my David Njoku call was a huge dud last week. Garrett Celek was a great play, but Njoku is clearly a better player overall.

And I wasn’t wrong. He had 6 targets, but his counterpart Seth DeValve is the one who got the TE touchdown last week against the Lions. Njoku ended the day with 1 catch.

But for tournaments, Njoku was a sharp play, it just didn’t pan out. A lot didn’t actually pan out in Week 10, but it clearly did for some people. That’s always the case.

But now we are getting into crunch time in the NFL season – Week 11. There’s really only 6 solid weeks of NFL football left (because Week 17 becomes somewhat like the preseason).

With Thanksgiving coming up as well, there are really only 5 more full slates where all games should matter. Trying to be profitable or continuing your profitability, those windows are quickly closing.

Hopefully, this week’s Value Index is one of the best yet. It has fallen out of the top 5 of the Expert Rankings to 6th, so we need a good rebound on this slate.

Before we get to this week’s selections, let’s down the raw rankings for each position, stacks and fades. I don’t think there are a ton of narratives this week, so we will skip that one again.

Quarterbacks

1. Tom Brady
2. Alex Smith
3. Derek Carr
4. Ryan Fitzpatrick
5. Drew Brees

Running Backs

1. Kareem Hunt
2. Mark Ingram
3. Todd Gurley
4. LeSean McCoy
5. Alvin Kamara

Wide Receivers

1. Mike Evans
2. Sterling Shepard
3. Keenan Allen
4. Brandin Cooks
5. Michael Crabtree/Amari Cooper

Tight Ends

1. Travis Kelce
2. Rob Gronkowski
3. Evan Engram
4. Tyler Kroft
5. Jared Cook

Defense/Special Teams

1. Jacksonville Jaguars
2. Los Angeles Chargers
3. Cincinnati Bengals
4. Cleveland Browns
5. Arizona Cardinals

Top Stacks

1. Alex Smith/Kareem Hunt/Tyreek Hill//Travis Kelce
2. Tom Brady/Patriots RB/Brandin Cooks/Rob Gronkowski
3. Derek Carr/Raiders WR/Jared Cook
4. Drew Brees/Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara/Michael Thomas
5. Ryan Fitzpatrick/Mike Evans/DeSean Jackson
6. Eli Manning/Sterling Shepard/Evan Engram
7. Devante Parker/Jarvis Landry

Top Fades

1. Leonard Fournette
2. Melvin Gordon
3. Robert Woods
4. Blake Bortles
5. Drew Brees

Good luck this week and don’t forget to follow me at my DailyOverlay Twitter account @hotdogdailyDFS

Derek Carr – QB – Oakland Raiders – $6,400

Analysis: I have no idea why I haven’t heard a lot of chatter for Derek Carr this week. I liken this spot for him to Matthew Stafford last week – facing a porous pass defense with an offense that can’t run the ball. Maybe it’s because this game against New England is in Mexico CIty, but it’s the highest total on this board this week and the Raiders are coming off a bye. I expect them to play well despite the elevation. The Pats are the worst pass defense on this slate, allowing nearly 300 yards passing per game. New England’s defensive DVOA is 30th in the league, but their offense is No. 1 in DVOA. Whether Carr is playing from behind or with a lead, he’s in a going to have to throw the ball. This price tag is way too cheap.

Chris Thompson – RB – Washington Redskins – $5,400

Analysis: No Rob Kelley, should be playing from behind, lockdown corners for the Saints on the boundaries and facing a defense that gives up 22.8 fantasy points per game to RBs. Against pass-catching RBs, New Orleans is tied for second in 81 targets allowed to the position. Thompson is one of those backs that is going to see 5-6 targets out of the backfield each week, but now that he is the starter, I expect Thompson to see some uptick in targets and of course carries (but not like you would think). The Saints do allow 4.6 yards per carry, for what it’s worth. Samaje Perine should get a lot of the early down work, and Jay Gruden doesn’t like for Thompson to get a huge workload despite the injuries. I am on the fence on whether I like him well enough for cash this week, but he’s certainly got the upside for tournaments at a really cheap price tag.

Bruce Ellington – WR – Houston Texans – $3,000

Analysis: Yes, having Tom Savage as your quarterback is likely brutal. But it’s hard to argue Bruce Ellington as a salary saver this week as he moves into the No. 2 wideout position with Will Fuller being ruled out. Now, normally I might look the other way in instances like this, BUT with DeAndre Hopkins likely being shadowed by Patrick Peterson, this becomes a funnel spot for Ellington and the other pass catchers. The Cardinals are one of the toughest run defenses in the land as well, so Tom Savage might have to put the ball in the air quite a bit. He’s had 8 targets in each of his last two games and those were with Hopkins and Fuller. The Cardinals have been giving up fantasy points to guys not lining up opposite Patrick Peterson. Ellington is quick, shifty, fast, but small. Hopefully he gets some run on the inside of the field this week, a place the Cardinals are most susceptible.

Tyler Kroft – TE – Cincinnati Bengals – $2,900

Analysis: Yea I get that Kelce, Gronk, and Engram are in great spots at TE this week, but I am going to treat them more like WRs than TEs. I always like to pay down at TE and this is the perfect spot to do so. The Broncos have been a lockdown zone for opposing wideouts this season, but they have been gashed by tight ends. Kelce, the top-priced TE, faces the worst fantasy defense against TEs. Kroft, who is more than $5K cheaper, faces the second-worst defense against TEs in the Denver Broncos. TEs usually get priced up against the Broncos, but in this case, Kroft is dirt cheap. A.J. Green will be taken out of the game plan here, leaving the rest of the pass catchers at the mercy of the Broncos’ defense. Kroft has been receiving target totals of 5 or more in four out of the last 6 games. The Broncos have been allowing 18.4 FPPs this season. They have given up the most yards to opposing TEs (746) and have allowed 6 TDs to the position as well. At this price? It’s hard to beat.