What a bang to Week 4 Thursday night!
Vikings and Rams put on a show, making a case to keep Thursday night football around.
I am in the camp that Thursday football should be reserved for Thanksgiving Day, but the NFL is matching up better teams this year so hopefully that makes things more entertaining moving forward. I would prefer two Monday night games every week in lieu of Thursday football, but that won’t happen any time soon.
So, Week 4 has given us all the feels already, and we still have a couple of days before it all begins.
WEEK 3 CASH GAME REVIEW
I couldn’t get my screenshot to load, but let’s just say it was another week where I just missed out….and I didn’t stick to the script. So if you are reading this, kindly tweet at me to remember to stick to the script. By stick to the script, stick to the plays listed in this article ONLY.
I scored 143.16 in cash, missing all of the cash lines in double ups by less than 5 points. At some point, I knew the Cowboys DST was an awful play. But that revelation didn’t come until a few hours after lineups locked.
Where I deviated again was going Latavius Murray over Giovani Bernard. I loved Murray as a tournament play if Cook was out. But I thought there was no way the Vikings would do what they did and Murray would score 2-3 touchdowns. It was a big goose egg from him and Cowboys DST, torching my lineups.
This also is the second week in a row I played Pat Mahomes in cash and didn’t cash. Maybe that’s a trend? (Not really, it’s pure coincidence). But not playing Brees at $6,400 and not going up to Gio was my demise.
Maybe this week I will stick to the script. On the plus side to Week 3, The Cash Game Index has moved up to the #3 overall expert in our weekly grading recap.
So if you have been using the Cash Game Index, it should, in theory, be helping you profit…unless you are me and don’t stick to the script.
Stick to the script.
Stick to the script.
Stick to the effing script.
Week 4, let’s go.
QUARTERBACKS
Aaron Rodgers – Green Bay Packers – $6,800
Analysis: Rodgers is the highest-priced QB, but he’s not that expensive. No way the Packers allow the Bills to come into their house and impose their will a la Minnesota in Week 3. They saw what happened and Rodgers will be throwing, throwing, throwing because that’s how you beat Buffalo as they allow 256 yards per game through the air and 28 points per game.
Phillip Rivers – Los Angeles Chargers – $6,500
Analysis: Rivers is a little expensive for my tastes this week, but he’s in a smash spot against the 49ers who are a sieve for passing yards thus far, allowing 287 yards per game through the air. Rivers has Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Melvin Gordon catching passes. With the 49ers not likely to be able to keep up, the Super Chargers should be able to push down on the throttle and get win number 2.
DeShaun Watson – Houston Texans – $6,300
Analysis: There’s one other QB on this list that might have me change my mind to who my cash game QB is, but for now I am going with Watson personally. He’s got the high floor with his rushing ability, he’s indoors, on field turf and in a game that should see plenty of points scored. The Colts may not be the worst defense, but they are giving up 241 passing yards per game and 21 points per game this season.
Matt Ryan – Atlanta Falcons – $6,100
Analysis: The best value at QB last week checks in at a very cheap price once again this week. Ryan gets to tee off on the Bengals defense which has allowed 270 yards passing and 27 points per game through 3 weeks. I think this is a Julio week after Ridley broke the slate last week. Ryan will find him heavy and often.
Russell Wilson – Arizona Cardinals – $5,600
Analysis: Sometimes you have to price enforce with cheap talent. Russell Wilson is dirt cheap on the road against the Cardinals who have been a passing yardage floodgate, giving up 261 yards per game through the air while giving up 24 points per game. And Wilson may get Doug Baldwin back…Wilson is that guy, by the way, that may have me change my mind about Watson.
Andrew Luck – Indianapolis Colts – $5,500
Analysis; Captain Checkdown should be able to find T.Y., Ryan Grant, Ebron and maybe Jack Doyle if he plays against a Texans team that hasn’t won a game and in a game that should be close and see lots of points scored due to bad defensive play.
Andy Dalton – Cincinnati Bengals – $5,400
Analysis: Dalton may have 4 TDs and 5 INTs in 2 road games this season, but he gets to face a defense in the Atlanta Falcons that doesn’t seem to have a healthy body to defend opposing offenses. Dalton will have A.J. Green around to throw the ball and his shiny new toy Tyler Boyd. Oh, and Gio Bernard, but we will get to him later.
RUNNING BACKS
Melvin Gordon – Los Angeles Chargers – $8,300
Analysis: With 17 receptions plus 39 carries through 3 games, that’s nearly 20 touches per game for Melvin Gordon, who squeaked out 16 fantasy points against a stout Rams rush defense. Now he gets to be at home against the 49ers who are allowing 27 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs.
Saquon Barkley – New York Giants – $8,100
Analysis; At home in the game with the highest total on the board, Barkley has a chance to be part of a shootout. The Saints have been stingy against opposing running backs so far, but they also have faced Peyton Barber, the Browns (with Carlos Hyde) and kept Tevin Coleman in check. Barkley will by far be the most talented running back they will face thus far. He’s got 21 receptions on 27 targets and is averaging more than 22 fantasy points per game.
Ezekiel Elliott – Dallas Cowboys – $7,700
Analysis: The Lions are 4th in fantasy points allowed to running backs this season. Zeke has been way involved in the passing game than he has in his career. He has 18 targets through 3 games with 13 catches. He’s averaging well above 5 yards per carry despite negative game script. This price is ridiculously low for a guy with the volume and targets he should see against a piss poor rush defense allowing 149 yards rushing per game.
Gio Bernard – Cincinnati Bengals – $6,300
Analysis: Cash game lock. No Mixon and facing a defense with tons of injuries that is already designed to funnel targets to running backs. I hope the Falcons don’t scheme differently with all of the injuries and zig when we want to zag, but Gio is a pass-catching running back that could see more targets should AJ Green be more of a decoy than a legit weapon. The Falcons are third in the league in fantasy points allowed and first in targets and receptions allowed to the position.
Carlos Hyde – Cleveland Browns – $5,500
Analysis: I think Hyde is a volume-driven, touchdown dependent, safe cash game play this week against the Raiders. I don’t know if I will use him just yet, but the Raiders have been tough on opposing running backs. I think that number would be different if the Dolphins had committed to running the ball against Oakland last week. Anyway, with Baker Mayfield at the helm, opening up the field and likely playing some check down football to limit mistakes, Hyde could be in for a higher reception outcome this week.
Marshawn Lynch – Oakland Raiders – $4,800
Analysis: Lynch is the guy and the home favorite against the Browns, who are top 10 in fantasy points allowed to RBs. Lynch has two catches in each of his first three games, giving him a little extra pop to his floor if that trend continues. I do love this game to score points and Lynch could fall into the end zone a couple of times.
*BONUS: Tevin Coleman – Atlanta Falcons – $5,900
Analysis: Devonta Freeman looks like he may give it a go. But if he doesn’t suit up whatsoever, then Coleman is in for another high-volume, high-target rate against the Bengals. But if Freeman is to play, or even share duties with Coleman, I’m out and he shouldn’t be used. This is a news-based play only this week.
WIDE RECEIVERS
DeAndre Hopkins – Houston Texans – $8,400
Analysis: He’s a target machine, even with Will Fuller out there lighting up opposing defenses. Watson has a great rapport with his receivers and Nuk has 32 targets through 3 games. He has caught 20 of those balls for 274 yards and a score. Hopkins is going to bust this price if he scores a TD and catches his usual amount of passes.
Julio Jones – Atlanta Falcons – $8,200
Analysis: I went all in on Julio in tournaments last week and it didn’t quite work out. Calvin Ridley proceeded to bust the slate with 3 TDs. Julio isn’t allergic to the end zone, though it feels that way some times. But I will be all in on Julio in cash this week against the Bengals who are sixth in targets allowed to receivers this season.
Will Fuller – Houston Texans – $6,800
Analysis: Fuller was a great play in cash last week and continues to dominate with DeShaun Watson as quarterback. This is a concentrated offense and Lamar Miller hasn’t been worth handing ball off to this year. The fast track indoors suits a star player like Fuller.
Allen Robinson – Chicago Bears – $5,900
Analysis: The Bucs are one of the most fantasy friendly defenses this season. A-Rob has been getting the most targets from Mitch Trubisky this season, but the only problem here is that Mitch Trubisky is throwing him the ball. He’s without a TD this season so far so he’s more than due to score this week. His price tag is still affordable against the No. 2 overall team in fantasy points allowed to receivers.
Randall Cobb – Green Bay Packers – $5,100
Analysis: Cobb appeared on the injury report with a hamstring issue, so that’s a little concerning for me. But still, I’ll leave Cobb in this spot against a Bills defense this is middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed to receivers. That number includes a 1-in-a million result last week when they kept the whole Vikings office in check. The Packers have a running back-by-committee this season and Buffalo is tough against the run so far, so if the Packers are going to get it done, it’s going to be through the air to Adams, Allison and Cobb in the slot.
Larry Fitzgerald – Arizona Cardinals – $5,000
Analysis: With Sam Bradford not able to throw the ball past the line of scrimmage, Larry Fitzgerald and the Cardinals get a jolt of fresh breath with rookie Josh Rosen starting against the Bears. Fitzgerald has been productive earlier in the year in home games. With Rosen at QB, he’s going to find Fitzgerald often and frequently because he’s a veteran and a safe option in the passing game when wanting to be aggressive downfield doesn’t work.
Calvin Ridley – Atlanta Falcons – $4,900
Analysis: He was typed in this spot last week….then I opted not to make him a cash play. That turned out to be a bad move. Now he’s up to nearly $5K and is third on this team in targets and snaps for wideouts. However, he’s much better than Sanu and I think this is another spot where Ridley could catch another touchdown or two against the Bengals porous pass defense.
Sterling Shepard – New York Giants – $4,900
Analysis: The Saints have been the most generous defense to opposing receivers all year long. Now they face the Giants with Odell Beckham and no Evan Engram. Shepard makes a lot of sense this week with the injury to Engram and the fact that New Orleans has been torched by No. 2 wide receivers all year long.
Tyler Boyd – Cincinnati Bengals – $4,700
Analysis: I got on to Tyler Boyd too late last week, but he should’ve been a cash game lock. It’s too bad I didn’t make the choice to deviate from my list last week and go with Boyd instead of Murray. But now we have Boyd in another great spot despite the price increase and scoring explosion in Week 3. The Falcons’ defense is in shambles with injuries and AJ Green could be a decoy with the hamstring injury. John Ross isn’t the No. 2, it’s Tyler Boyd.
TIGHT ENDS
David Njoku – Cleveland Browns – $3,200
Analysis: Yes, there’s only one tight end here in cash and it’s David Njoku. Now that Baker Mayfield is the starter, I expect Njoku to see a lot more work in the passing game. Tyrod was not a guy that forced the ball in tough situations, especially in the middle of the field, limiting the mistakes or possibility of a mistake. Baker was money with Njoku during the preseason and helped Njoku get off the goose egg when he came in the game in Week 3. I am riding or dying with Njoku this week.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Chicago Bears (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers) – $2,600
Analysis: I never thought a defense would be a favorite play of the week, but this is just a ridiculous price for Chicago at home against the Buccaneers. The Bears have been a frothy defense through three games thanks to the addition of Khalil Mack. They have scored double-digit points in each of the first three games. I am not convinced at all of Ryan Fitzpatrick and we started to see his holes last week against Pittsburgh when he threw 3 picks. Chicago is a much better defense than Pittsburgh and the Saints and the Eagles so far. They have 5 INTs, 3 fumble recoveries, 14 sacks, 2 defensive touchdowns, are allowing just 18 points per game and have scored at least 13 fantasy points in each of their first three games. With the 14 sacks, that’s a 4-point floor average, and at this price, even if they got destroyed, that’s a solid floor.
