Overall, DailyOverlay scores were down in Week 6 for our list of experts and there were many more “off the board” picks that came through to receive “A+” grades with 11 players picked by a least one of the experts but not on the Consensus list. Be sure to check out the full list of […]
Here is the NFL Weighted Consensus rankings for Week 6. In this series, we will publish a more in-depth version of the NFL Consensus rankings every week that takes into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking for each position.
To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We also list the projected Ownership Percentages for Cash and GPP leagues to help you identify some players that could be good low-owned contrarian plays. We will include all players that are selected by at least two experts.
This article is part of our premium content, so be sure to sign up to get this great compact article. Check out the Week 3 article to get a glimpse of the content.
Here is the NFL Weighted Consensus list for Week 6:
Last week I had a “gut call” on an Amari Cooper breakout which went well (could have been even better if he could just stay in bounds) and a sneaky shootout between the Titans and Dolphins where at least the Titans lived up too, including my recommendations of Marcus Mariota and Delanie Walker. I won’t have those situations arise every week, as I don’t like to force it but this week does have another “gut call” for a cheap WR with only six receptions all season to catch a long TD this week.
As I have been doing my research for the Week 6 slate and wrote this article, I really like the “feel” of the slate. I think it is going to be a slate where you should do the opposite of what you have probably done to build DFS lineups so far. Most weeks there have been a lot of value plays at running back that has allowed everyone to get cheap options in the backfield while spending up at WR and either QB or TE. However, this week it seems like spending up at RB might be the way to go and the Increased Opportunities seem to also suggest that.
So let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Denver Broncos | 65 | 37 | 56.9% | 249 | 1.6 | 28 | 43.1% | 111 | 1.2 | 23.7 |
| San Diego Chargers | 65 | 40 | 61.5% | 247 | 1.4 | 25 | 38.5% | 90 | 0.9 | 21.0 |
Look for the Broncos to execute their typical play distribution this week. The passing game with the return of Trevor Siemian will produce their typical yardage with a slightly increased chance for two touchdown passes. The running game will have a slight increase in rushing yards with a significantly increased chance for at least one rushing score. The Broncos have an even 50/50 split between run and pass plays in the red zone this season.
The Chargers project to execute their typical play distribution. The passing game will have a significant decrease in production with fewer passing yards and a decreased chance for any more than one touchdown pass. The rushing attack will produce their usual yardage with their typical chance for one rushing touchdown. The Chargers pass over 55% of the time in the red zone.
Increased Opportunities:
We are through five weeks of the NFL season and the ownership percentages are stabilizing more with each passing week. For the most part, the more often a player is recommended by the DFS experts we track the higher the ownership percentage, especially in Cash leagues. Below are the updated ownership percentages by position for […]
We had a few different sites rise to the top of the Week 5 standings in a week where a lot of the top chalk plays performed well including players like Tom Brady, Jordan Howard, Brandon Marshall and the Vikings defense. However, they didn’t all perform well as the highly touted tight end, Zach Ertz, […]
Here is the NFL Weighted Consensus rankings for Week 5. In this series, we will publish a more in-depth version of the NFL Consensus rankings every week that takes into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking for each position.
To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We also list the projected Ownership Percentages for Cash and GPP leagues to help you identify some players that could be good low-owned contrarian plays. We will include all players that are selected by at least two experts.
This article is part of our premium content, so be sure to sign up to get this great compact article. Check out the Week 3 article to get a glimpse of the content.
Here is the NFL Weighted Consensus list for Week 5:
As we now have four weeks of current season data, the Offensive Tendency projections are starting to improve with each passing week. The Week 5 slate opened up a lot of solid options with increased opportunities including a potentially sneaky shootout where both passing offenses are projected to significantly outperform their typical level of production. I also have a “gut call” for a receiver that I expect to have a huge day.
So let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Arizona Cardinals | 68 | 39 | 57.4% | 273 | 1.7 | 29 | 42.6% | 119 | 1.0 | 23.5 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 65 | 36 | 55.4% | 214 | 1.1 | 29 | 44.6% | 116 | 1.0 | 19.0 |
Look for the Cardinals to execute a few extra plays this week against the 49ers with a shift to the running game with Drew Stanton starting at quarterback. As a result, the passing game will see a decrease in both yardage and their opportunity for multiple touchdown passes. Meanwhile, the running game will have a slight increase in both yardage and their likelihood for a rushing touchdown. The Cardinals have run the ball 52% of the time from inside the 10 yard line.
The 49ers project to execute their typical play distribution. The passing game will perform at their typical level for yardage with one touchdown pass. The running game will also perform near their typical production in yardage with a slightly decreased chance for any more than one rushing score. The 49ers run the ball over 71% of the time in the red zone.
Increased Opportunities:
With four weeks in the books, the ownership percentages are starting to stabilize a little bit and a few more of the gaps are starting to fill in. For the most part, the more often a player is recommended by the DFS experts we track the higher the ownership percentage, especially in Cash leagues. Below […]
It is unbelievable that we are already about a fourth of the way through the entire NFL regular season. Seems like just yesterday that we were getting hyped up for opening weekend. However, now that we have four weeks of experts picks and results we can start to see who is rising to the top […]
Here is the NFL Weighted Consensus rankings for Week 4. In this series, we will publish a more in-depth version of the NFL Consensus rankings every week that takes into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking for each position.
To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We also list the projected Ownership Percentages for Cash and GPP leagues to help you identify some players that could be good low-owned contrarian plays. We will include all players that are selected by at least two experts.
This article is part of our premium content, so be sure to sign up to get this great compact article. Check out the Week 3 article to get a glimpse of the content.
In this week’s Offensive Tendencies analysis, it was difficult to find teams that have significant increased opportunities on the ground with very few matchups where a good rushing offense is playing a poor rushing defense. So you many need to pay up a little bit at running back this week to get some guaranteed touches. This week also features the first bye week with the Packers and Eagles getting the week off and a Sunday morning game in London between the Jaguars and Colts. Hard to believe we are almost a quarter of the way through the season already.
So let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…
| Projected | Plays | Pass | Pass% | Pass Yards | Pass TD | Run | Run% | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Score |
| Miami Dolphins | 64 | 42 | 65.6% | 272 | 1.8 | 22 | 34.4% | 92 | 0.6 | 19.2 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 68 | 36 | 52.9% | 281 | 1.7 | 32 | 47.1% | 137 | 1.1 | 24.6 |
Look for the Dolphins to execute more plays than normal with a slight shift to the passing game on the road in a game they are expected to be trailing. With an increase in pass attempts, the passing game will still only produce their typical yardage but have an increase chance for multiple touchdown passes. The running game will be limited to fewer rushing yards and a decreased chance for a rushing score. The Dolphins have passed over 62% of the time inside the 10 yard line this season.
The Bengals will also have an increased number of plays this week with an emphasis on the running game. Look for the Bengals ground game to have a significant increase in rushing yardage with a slightly increased chance for more than one rushing touchdown. The passing game will produce their typical yardage with a slightly increased chance for a second touchdown pass. The Bengals have passed on over 65% of their plays in the red zone this season.
Increased Opportunities:
With three weeks now in the books, the overall standings are starting to take shape with DailyFantasyNerd leading the way so far after their second straight week with a top three finish. Meanwhile, our Industry Consensus list is providing solid picks every week with good options at the top of the list as well as […]