Entries by Brad Richter

NBA – Hot Sheet – December 12

There is a big 11-game slate on the NBA hardwood Wednesday night. After all of the injury news and late scratches on Monday, here’s to hoping for a fairly quiet night of moving pieces leading up to tipoff tonight. There are numerous high Vegas totals on Wednesday with six games over 220 and one (Thunder/Pelicans) reaching over 230 points. We also have a lot of tight lines with no team coming in as a double-digit favorite, so the key members of every team should log their typical minutes.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

Sign up for a FREE 7-day trial to get this article and all of the great content here at DailyOverlay.

Hot Sheet for December 12th

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
December 12 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – December 10

Monday presents a big 11-game slate of NBA action. Be sure to keep a close watch on the news on Monday as there are numerous impactful players that are questionable to suit up and play. This injury news will have a significant impact on the slate, so be sure to stay flexible with your roster construction leading up to tipoff. Some of the pivot players to watch include Anthony Davis, Joel Embiid, Al Horford, Jamaal Murray, and Deandre Ayton. Here are a few players that didn’t make my recommended list but will be in consideration if the key player playing ahead of them misses Monday’s game, Mike Muscala, Daniel Theis, Richuan Holmes and Monte Morris.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

Sign up for a FREE 7-day trial to get this article and all of the great content here at DailyOverlay.

Hot Sheet for December 10th

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
December 10 by

NFL – Handicapper Consensus Picks – Week 14

There are seven best bets from the NFL Handicappers for Week 14. Let’s see if the Consensus Bets can keep rolling as they have gone 28-16-1 (63.6%) since Week 6.

In this series, we will publish a consensus of Handicapper Picks against the spread and totals where we pay for the premium picks and take the time and effort to accumulate them, so you don’t have to. This week we pulled picks from 14 expert sites and 41 different handicappers to get our consensus betting selections.  Picks make the Consensus list if they receive at least three more selection on one side than the other side. We will also be grading handicappers throughout the season.

This article is part of our premium content, so be sure to sign up!

Free Play of the Week: Chargers -14.5

Over $500 in monthly subscriptions and you can get the consensus for only $11.99/month.  7 Day Free Trial  –  Click Here.

Here is the NFL Handicapper Consensus list for Week 14…

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
December 8 by

NFL – DFS Weighted Consensus – Week 14

As you have probably figured out by now, Week 14 will be the week of the cheap RB with numerous options including the top two most recommended players for the 13-game Sunday slate. Find out which two top the list and who are some of the high-priced studs to pair them with for your cash game lineups. There are also a nice group of options that fall into the GPP sections at each position if you are looking to fade the chalk. It should be fun and potentially high-scoring week in DFS if the value RBs perform as many expect.

In this series, we will publish a consensus of NFL DFS expert’s recommendations that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking for each position. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We also list the projected Ownership Percentages for Cash and GPP leagues to help you identify some players that could be good low-owned contrarian plays. We will include all players that have a Rank Score of at least 10.

This article is part of our premium content, so be sure to sign up to get this great snapshot of who the DFS Industry Experts recommend.

Here is the NFL Weighted Consensus list for Week 14…

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
December 8 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – December 7

Friday night in the NBA is shaping up to be fun 10-game slate. There are tough decisions on which high-priced studs to roster. There are value options opening up in the mid-salary range. And there are a bunch of cheap options to allow you to fit them in. Check out my Droppin’ Dimes recommendations for Friday that includes my favorite highs and lows for what should be an entertaining night of hoops.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

Sign up for a FREE 7-day trial to get this article and all of the great content here at DailyOverlay.

Hot Sheet for December 7th

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
December 7 by

NFL – Hot Sheet – Week 14

Another full 16-game week as we head into the final four weeks of the season. There are plenty of intriguing matchups this week including a variety of divisional clashes. It looks like the week of the cheap RB from a DFS perspective as there are numerous options that have opened up already this week. I’m also putting out a hopefully lucky 13 bets to help heal my under 50% success rate so far this season.

Be sure to sign up for a FREE 7-day trial to read this full article and to get all the other great content here at DailyOverlay.

Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.

So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans

Team QB RB WR1 WR2 WR3 TE D Vegas
Jacksonville Jaguars 39 40 72 61 60 24 48 37.5
Tennessee Titans 40 30 29 29 34 58 48 -5

Jaguars

Injuries Notes

  • Leonard Fournette returns from one-game suspension
  • DJ Chark is out

Running Game (22nd): Fournette will resume as the workhorse back for the Jaguars after coming off his one-game suspension. The week off should make him fresh for the Thursday night matchup against the Titans who have allowed 4.86 YPC (23rd) and 0.8 rushing TDs (19th) per game over the last five weeks to RBs. Meanwhile, Fournette has averaged 23 carries for 81 yards while scoring four rushing TDs over his last three games.

Passing Game (20th): Cody Kessler will remain under center for the Jaguars but only threw for 150 yards last week without a TD. He’ll face a Titans pass defense that has good raw numbers on the year allowing just 234 passing yards (4th) and 1.33 TD passes (3rd) per game despite a 23rd DVOA ranking. Some regression may be coming for the Titans pass defense, but it won’t be this week.

Top Targets: Dede Westbrook led the Jaguars WRs in targets last week and the Titans rank 32nd DVOA against #1 WRs this season. Meanwhile, Fournette has 10 targets over his last three games and T.J. Yeldon saw a team-high eight targets last week, so both of them could get some check downs from Kessler.

TD Predictions:

  • Leonard Fournette rushing
  • Cody Kessler to Dede Westbrook

Titans

Injuries Notes

  • None

Running Game (30th): The Jaguars run defense ranks 7th DVOA and has allowed just 3.54 YPC (6th) and no rushing TDs (1st) to RBs over the last five weeks. With a split backfield between Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry, neither is a strong play on the ground.

Passing Game (26th): Marcus Mariota has thrown for over 280 yards with 2 TD passes in each of the last two games but faces a good Jaguars pass defense on Thursday that just shutout Andrew Luck and ranks 6th DVOA. They have also allowed the fewest TD passes this season.

Top Targets: Mariota will need to leverage his TEs to help move the ball this week as the Jaguars have allowed 6.25 receptions (27th) for 66 yards (25th) and 1.0 TDs (30th) to TEs over the last five weeks. Their 11th DVOA ranking to the position is also their worst rank of all the receiving options. So, look for the combo of Jonnu Smith and Anthony Firkser to both be involved while WR Corey Davis competes with Jalen Ramsey.

TD Predictions:

  • Marcus Mariota rushing

Hot Picks:

  • Leonard Fournette (*)
  • Dede Westbrook (*)
  • Jaguars D/ST (*)
  • Jonnu Smith (*)
  • Anthony Firkser (*)
You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
December 6 by

NFL – Handicapper Results and Recap – Week 13

Week 13 was a down week overall for the NFL Handicappers who combined for a losing record for the week. Jason Logan (Covers) was the top handicapper of the week with a 3-0 record. Despite the lack of success from the handicappers overall, our Consensus picks managed to squeak out a winning week with a […]

December 6 by

NBA – Industry Expert Consensus – December 5th

Wednesday night’s 10-game NBA slate is setting up nicely for some high DFS scores with seven of the 10 games coming in with a Vegas total over 220 points and a bunch of value options to choose from on tonight’s Weighted Consensus list.

The Weighted Consensus for the NBA uses each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score for players is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. This method gives the higher rated experts picks more weight when compiling the overall player rankings for the day. We will include all players that generate a Rank Score of at least 10.0.

As a reminder, most of our NBA content will be part of our premium membership. Now is a great time to sign up for our premium content so you are all set for the NBA season.

Here is the NBA Weighted Consensus list for December 5:

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
December 5 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – December 5

Wednesday features a big 10-game NBA slate. While there are a ton of options to choose from, it looks like an extreme “Stars & Scars” night with a bunch of cheap options with expected increase in playing time to pair along with a few high-priced studs.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

Sign up for a FREE 7-day trial to get this article and all of the great content here at DailyOverlay.

Hot Sheet for December 5th

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
December 5 by

NFL – DFS Expert Grading and Recap – Week 13

We are starting to come down the home stretch with just four weeks of the NFL season remaining. The top 5 in the overall standing are starting to separate from the field with FantasyTeamAdvice continuing to lead the way but can they hold onto the top spot? For Week 13, DailyFantasyNerd top home top honors […]

December 5 by

NBA – Hot Sheet – December 4

There is just a small five-game NBA slate on Tuesday night. The slate is also void of high-priced studs and dirt-cheap value options which has me constructing a very balanced lineup. As I often like to do on a short slate, I try to identify my top play on each team to spread out my exposure and maximize my upside. So, there are seven of the 10 teams represented in my Droppin’ Dimes recommendations on Tuesday night.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

Sign up for a FREE 7-day trial to get this article and all of the great content here at DailyOverlay.

Hot Sheet for December 4th

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
December 4 by