Entries by Brad Richter

NFL – DFS Expert Grading and Recap – Week 10

Week 10 was another week for the rise of the machines with the DailyFantasyNerd and Sportsline optimized lineups leading the way. The overall standings have FantasyTeamAdvice on top with numerous other experts not far behind. Our Industry Consensus rankings have also broken into the Top 10 in the overall standings. On to the Week 10 […]

NBA – Hot Sheet – November 12

Monday features a nine-game NBA slate. There are numerous stars already ruled out with Stephen Curry and Russell Westbrook still sidelined. There are also a few other situations to keep an eye on in New Orleans and Orlando along with some we aren’t even aware of yet, so as always, watch the news tracker leading up to tipoff.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

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Hot Sheet for November 12th

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NFL – Handicapper Consensus Picks – Week 10

The Handicapper Consensus plays are 14-4 over the last three weeks. Week 10 of the NFL season bring us six ATS picks including a few near unanimous picks and two Totals. Let’s see if the Consensus Picks can stay hot!

In this series, we will publish a consensus of Handicapper Picks against the spread and totals where we pay for the premium picks and take the time and effort to accumulate them, so you don’t have to. This week we pulled picks from 14 expert sites and 44 different handicappers to get our consensus betting selections.  Picks make the Consensus list if they receive at least three more selection on one side than the other side. We will also be grading handicappers throughout the season.

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Here is the NFL Handicapper Consensus list for Week 10…

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NFL – DFS Weighted Consensus – Week 10

Week 10 of the NFL season offers up an 11-game main slate on Sunday. There are some very popular RBs that will likely find their way into a lot of DFS lineups this week but most of the other positions are wide open with who the DFS analysts recommend.

In this series, we will publish a consensus of NFL DFS expert’s recommendations that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking for each position. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We also list the projected Ownership Percentages for Cash and GPP leagues to help you identify some players that could be good low-owned contrarian plays. We will include all players that have been recommended by at least two experts.

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Here is the NFL Weighted Consensus list for Week 10…

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NBA – Hot Sheet – November 9

There is a seven-game slate on the NBA hardwood Friday night. There could be a lot of close games with six of the seven games coming in with a favorite of just six points or fewer. The Wolves/Kings tilt has the highest Vegas total on the slate and while there are a variety of solid plays in that game on both sides, I don’t seem to be going there with most of my recommendations on Friday’s slate.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

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Hot Sheet for November 9th

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NFL – Hot Sheet – Week 10

We have reached double-digit weeks in the NFL season as we enter Week 10. The season is just growing up so fast. The Week 10 slate kicks off with what should be a fun game in Pittsburgh between the Panthers and Steelers and concludes with what could be a snoozer in San Francisco between the Giants and 49ers. All of the action in between should be plenty entertaining with six games that have a Vegas total over 49 points but there could be some blowouts along with the way with four teams favored by double-digits.

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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.

So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…

Carolina Panthers @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Team QB RB WR1 WR2 WR3 TE D Vegas
Carolina Panthers 49 42 40 57 54 55 38 51.5
Pittsburgh Steelers 61 53 32 55 45 71 39 -3.5

The Panthers outscored the Bucs last week to win their third game in a row. They will travel on a short week to face the Steelers in Pittsburgh. The Steelers pass defense has been improved in recent week ranking 8th in passing yards allowed (234) and 5th in TD pass allowed (1.3) over the last five weeks. The Steelers also rank 1st DVOA defending opposing pass-catching RBs this season so Cam Newton might need to find his other receivers instead of Christian McCaffrey. Greg Olsen is a likely candidate as the Steelers rank 26th DVOA against TEs and have allowed 6.6 receptions (30th) and 73 yards (29th) per game to the position. Other than Olsen the next best option might be either D.J. Moore or Curtis Samuel who have been more involved in the offense in recent weeks and draws easier individual matchups. McCaffrey could also struggle to get things going on the ground as the Steelers run defense has allowed just 3.61 YPC (5th) to opposing RBs this season. Of course, Newton is also a threat on the ground.

The Steelers have reeled off four straight wins after their victory over the Ravens last week. They look to extend the streak at home against the Panthers on Thursday night. The Panthers pass defense has been regressing lately especially in the TD department allowing 2.4 TD passes (31st) per game over the last five weeks and gave up four to Ryan Fitzpatrick last week. Roethlisberger historically has been better at home and will look to spread the ball around to his targets. JuJu Smith-Schuster might have the best individual matchup, but Antonio Brown will always get his and enjoys the primetime spotlight. Meanwhile, the TE duo of Vance McDonald and Jesse James could thrive against the 27th DVOA ranked defense against TEs if you can pick the right one. Last week was James, so I’m going with McDonald this week. Also, James Conner is a threat for a receiving score as the Panthers have allowed 0.6 receiving TDs by RBs over the last five weeks. Conner could have more problems when he runs the ball against the Panthers 7th DVOA ranked run defense that has been stingy in the red zone allowing just 0.2 rushing TDs (2nd) over the last five weeks.

Hot Picks:

  • Greg Olsen (**)
  • DJ Moore (*)
  • Ben Roethlisberger (**)
  • Antonio Brown (*)
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster (**)
  • Vance McDonald (**)
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NFL – DFS Expert Grading and Recap – Week 9

With a first-place finish in Week 9, DFSArmy has moved into a first-place tie in the overall standing with FantasyTeamAdvice as we pass the halfway point of the NFL season. It should be a great second half of the season as the DFS experts look to make their move! On to the Week 9 grades, […]

PGA – 2018 Mayakoba Golf Classic – Weighted Consensus

Welcome to the Weighted Consensus for the PGA where we publish a more in-depth version of the PGA Consensus rankings that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking.

To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We will include all players that are selected by at least two.

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Here is the PGA Weighted Consensus list for the Mayakoba Golf Classic:

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NBA – Hot Sheet – November 7

There is a big 10-game slate lined up for Wednesday night in the Association. As is often the case in the NBA, injury news will be key to unlock value and there are plenty of potential value options if key players are ruled out. One key player that has already been ruled out is Russell Westbrook which opens up a couple strong options for the Thunder.

The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.

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Hot Sheet for November 7th

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NBA – Hot Sheet – November 6

On a short slate like Tuesday’s four-gamer, I like to try to single out the best play for each team based on their cost and projection and use each of them in my lineup. On Tuesday’s slate, that means going with a balanced lineup approach and fading the only high-priced stud on the slate. Since […]